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Jan 16-17th Boom or Bust


Wurbus
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The models aren’t sure about it either. I understand how it happens. The strong downsloping results in an area of low pressure forming up against the foothills. If the storm gets stronger it will run up that area. If it stays weak enough, it will transfer across GA to the SC lowcountry. We want the latter to occur.

Gotcha… I understand what we want, I just wasn’t sure what we were thinking ATM. Like you said, mods are all over the place and I’ve seen a Miller A and B both thrown out today.


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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
951 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

TNZ067-068-071-083>086-099>101-161000-
Roane-Loudon-Northwest Blount-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-
Including the cities of Harriman, Eagle Furnace, Rockwood,
Bradbury, Fairview, Kingston, Oliver Springs, Lenoir City,
Loudon, Happy Valley, Maryville, Alcoa, Dayton, Evensville,
Old Washington, Grandview, Spring City, Big Spring, Athens,
Clear Water, Dentville, Etowah, Sweetwater, Madisonville,
Bullet Creek, Chattanooga, Cleveland, Tasso, Conasauga,
Archville, Benton, Parksville, and Reliance
951 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022


...Wintry Weather Possible Sunday For The Southern Tennessee
Valley...

A potent storm system will move through the region tonight
through Sunday night. This system will produce light snowfall
across the southern Tennessee Valley on Sunday which could yield
measurable snowfall less an inch total. Some of the locally
higher elevation areas could see slightly higher snowfall totals
of 1 to 2 inches, which is expected to remain isolated. This
precipitation could present some minor travel impacts across the
region on Sunday and Sunday night.


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National Weather Service Nashville TN
809 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Light rain continues to drift northward at update time this
evening, blanketing a good portion of Middle TN. Temperatures for
almost everyone are in the upper 30s to low 40s, but very slowly,
we`re starting to see some colder temperatures invade our far
northwest counties. One or two reports of sleet have already come
in from Dover and we can expect this kind of a wintry mix to
continue to spread southward through the nighttime hours,
especially as the rain evaporates and helps cool the air column
across the mid-state.

I have no reason to change anything from the earlier forecast
package. Temperatures and PoPs are on track. Latest hi-res
guidance continues to show pockets of heavy snowfall tomorrow as
we deal with banding and even the potential for some convective
snow showers. This will beef up snowfall rates to 2+ inches/hr and
likely give several areas quite a bit of snow. While the Plateau
still looks to bear the brunt of this winter weather system, there
are indications that several spots south of I-40 will see more
snow than we`re currently forecasting. Where these heavy pockets
will occur is the main question.

Messaging hasn`t changed from last night: don`t focus on amounts.
Wintry weather, and probably quite a bit of it is going to get
dumped across a good portion of the mid-state tomorrow. This is
going to lead to major travel impacts and while we`re lucky Monday
is a holiday, which should take many off the roads, the other half
of us will be dealing with a messy situation. Monday still looks
cloudy, so even if we reach into the mid-30s, without sunshine,
roads are going to be bad until Tuesday.
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5 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

I know I’m wrong, but I think we are going to be surprised by this storm. I had the same feeling with the 2014 storm.


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I was in Tampa Bay at that time. This could definitely surprise us. BUT actual air temps are 15-20 degrees what they were for Snomageddon 2014. For that we knew that the cold air was there but the moisture wasnt expected, Bham had never received accumulating snow at 19-20F (-7.5 to -7C) so we had 20:1 snow ratios. This time we have plenty of moisture but can the temps drop enough to make the precip stick?

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11 minutes ago, brianc33710 said:

I was in Tampa Bay at that time. This could definitely surprise us. BUT actual air temps are 15-20 degrees what they were for Snomageddon 2014. For that we knew that the cold air was there but the moisture wasnt expected, Bham had never received accumulating snow at 19-20F (-7.5 to -7C) so we had 20:1 snow ratios. This time we have plenty of moisture but can the temps drop enough to make the precip stick?

I think that poster is referring to Feb 2014, not the January 2014 traffic Armageddon. February 2014 wasn’t too different from this. The I-59 and I-75 corridors got rocked. Even had some thundersnow.

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