Jan 6th-7th 2022 Second Chance Storm

[EastKnox]

Looks like the 850mb 0c line is farther north than I recall it being forecast.  Hopefully it pushes back south faster.

 

[PowellVolz]

MCD issued for SE Kentucky heavy snow


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[AMZ8990]

6 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Jackson Tn


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25 miles south of Jackson and there is no snow at all.  Cutoff line is steep as advertised.  I hate situations like that 

[PowellVolz]

25 miles south of Jackson and there is no snow at all.  Cutoff line is steep as advertised.  I hate situations like that 

That seems to line up with the GFS I believe


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[AMZ8990]

Just now, PowellVolz said:

That seems to line up with the GFS I believe


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Gfs was too far south with the snow line In southwest Tn.  Had us in the 1-2 range.  I’d bump the southern edge up 30miles north at the least 

[Carvers Gap]

System looks like it is moving faster than modeled.  Which model actually lines up with the look of the storm right now?

[PowellVolz]

This looks a little more robust than I expected


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[PowellVolz]

System looks like it is moving faster than modeled.  Which model actually lines up with the look of the storm right now?

Seems like the NAM was the slowest.


I’m tired


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[PowellVolz]

Just clouded up in Knoxville


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

@EastKnox

I think this is a situation where the mesoscale analysis is a little too course. There can't be any radiosondes giving 850 mb data in the circled area, and I doubt there are any planes flying that low to give obs. 

 

I was looking at that area earlier and trying to figure out why there was a jump NW with 850 temps there and the only thing I can figure, is that since that mesoscale analysis uses the RAP, that's just the RAPs best guess, in areas without direct observations. 

 

Of course I'm also in full weather weenie wishcast mode, so take that into account, lol. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Well, wrt to the above I realized my circle included Nashville where there could be obs at the 850 level, but I meant my point to be more regarding the area between Nashville and Knoxville. 

[bearman]

I have a good cloud deck over me now in west knox so maybe we will not get much heating if that holds.  There is a lot of retuns in north Alabama more than I thought we would be seeing.  Maybe it will not take long for the returns to reach the ground.

 

[jaxjagman]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

System looks like it is moving faster than modeled.  Which model actually lines up with the look of the storm right now?

Still alot of precip in Ark

[fountainguy97]

Here comes the sun doo doo doo doo.... haha 

looks fantastic across the Plateau! Cash in guys! 

[Vol4Life]

4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Seems like the NAM was the slowest.


I’m tired


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I think you are right.  NAM was more wound up and slower

[codgator]

Dumping in Franklin roads covered in 20 mins

 

[jaxjagman]

1 minute ago, codgator said:

Dumping in Franklin roads covered in 20 mins

 

Nice should be here in min then

[jaxjagman]

Just started

[jaxjagman]

[McMinnWx]

Lots of cloud cover here in Athens. Sitting at 31.

[EastKnox]

11 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

@EastKnox

There can't be any radiosondes giving 850 mb data in the circled area, and I doubt there are any planes flying that low to give obs. 

 

 

Thanks for the clarification.  I know that Nashville does balloon launches twice/day.  But nothing in East TN that I'm aware of.  I don't know what other regular tools the NCEP has for collecting data.  But the models are only as good as the initialization data.  

 

Edit:  I need to get permission from the FAA to take a drone to 5000' and collect weather data.

[ShawnEastTN]

Have a feeling I'm going to be right on that rain/snow transition line in my neck of the woods in the Eastern Valley, though not a terrible start considering it's currently 31 degrees, DP 28 and I am now socked in with clouds and returns aren't that far away

Happy chasing everyone! Good to see everyone.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[AMZ8990]

8 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Still alot of precip in Ark

Modes act like they want to bulk that precipitation up once it crosses the Mississippi River too.  Hopefully it continues to build like the models show and we can have more areas see some snowfall.  

[AMZ8990]

8 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Just started

I think your in a good spot, Jax.

[bearman]

3 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Have a feeling I'm going to be right on that rain/snow transition line in my neck of the woods in the Eastern Valley, though not a terrible start considering it's currently 31 degrees, DP 28 and I am now socked in with clouds and returns aren't that far away

Happy chasing everyone! Good to see everyone.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Glad to have you back on this go-round.  You are in a great place to keep us in the valley abreast of what is coming up the Valley.

[AMZ8990]

21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

System looks like it is moving faster than modeled.  Which model actually lines up with the look of the storm right now?

For MBY seems like the euro did the best job sniffing out where the rain snow line would set up.  Pretty impressive honestly 

[ShawnEastTN]

Glad to have you back on this go-round.  You are in a great place to keep us in the valley abreast of what is coming up the Valley.

I'll do my best, though I have an quick appointment 10am in Rockwood so it might start while im away, though if it starts while in Rockwood I'll let you know.

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[Wintersnow888]

DISCUSSION...

Latest surface obs show Arctic air continues to filter into
Middle Tennessee from the north this morning, with current
temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s and dewpoints way down
in the 10s and 20s. Radar imagery already shows widespread
precipitation developing across eastern AR, west TN, and northern
MS, and this activity will continue to spread northeast into the
forecast area early this morning. Increasing lift ahead of an
approaching powerful 110+kt jet streak, along with a surface low
tracking from central LA across MS/AL/GA and into the Carolinas
through the day, will promote increasing intensity of the
incoming precipitation as it moves across Middle Tennessee this
morning and early afternoon. All precip is anticipated to quickly
exit the area by late afternoon and early evening.

Forecast soundings from all the latest available models and CAMs
continue to show that profiles for areas roughly along and north
of the I-40 corridor will remain well below freezing throughout
the troposphere, with all snow anticipated for this event. Dry
air in the low levels initially will require saturation for
precipitation to reach the surface this morning, but guidance
indicates this will happen fairly quickly due to the intensity of
the large scale lift. Once saturation occurs, snow could fall
fairly heavily at times and allow for rapid accumulation due to
surface temperatures being near or below freezing. Several CAMs
are notably going gangbusters with snow amounts, but these totals
do not match the QPF shown by most models, and may not account
for the initially dry low levels. Went with a more reasonable 3
to 5 inches for much of the area, although 6 to 7 inch amounts
are possible in some locations. These totals are close to the
50th percentile of all model guidance, and also in line with WPCs
latest forecasts. Notably, these snow amounts are above the 00Z
ECMWF but below the latest GFS

[Reb]

S of 40 and even east of 81 looking to get shredded by the warm nose. HRRR pretty much shuts these areas out completely. 
 

edit: 12z NAM too. Just not our storm this time.

[Carvers Gap]

12z NAM basically shuts this off at the Plateau.  Looks like a good snow for middle TN.  I still think this is moving much faster than modeling is showing.  We will see.  BTW, that doesn't increase amounts for MBY.   Just looks fast w/ less precip.