PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 WWA for the valley 2-4”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RawCrabMeat Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 MRX - WWA south of 40 looks for up to 2" welp, underwhelming again it looks like. 2 straight busts i think Knox co is in the 2-4" WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 MRX - WWA south of 40 looks for up to 2" welp, underwhelming again it looks like. 2 straight busts i think Knox co is in the 2-4" WWAI’ll never consider 2” of snow in Knoxville a bust, especially when that’s pretty much what the maids have been saying most of the time. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RawCrabMeat Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I’ll never consider 2” of snow in Knoxville a bust, especially when that’s pretty much what the maids have been saying most of the time. . Knox might be ok, south of there eh I guess 2 is pretty decent, though, bust may be exaggerating it Gut feeling is actually okay for this, except for far southern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 CF is closing in into MiD Tn 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: WWA for the valley 2-4” . That's actually warning criteria for MRX, so may as well take it as a warning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 That's actually warning criteria for MRX, so may as well take it as a warning. I thought that was odd myself . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 NAM not looking so good for the valley, HRRR-like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Wow, that NAM is NOT good for the valley. Hope that doesn't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 12 minutes ago, RawCrabMeat said: MRX - WWA south of 40 looks for up to 2" welp, underwhelming again it looks like. 2 straight busts i think Knox co is in the 2-4" WWA I take 2” & cash out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VOLtage Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Latest NAM looking very similar to the NAM 3k last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RawCrabMeat Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Reb said: NAM not looking so good for the valley, HRRR-like Oh well, hope for the best expect nothing and then move on to the next opportunity GFS has remained stoic throughout - thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, VOLtage said: Latest NAM looking very similar to the NAM 3k last night. NWS jinx in full effect! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RawCrabMeat Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Matthew70 said: I take 2” & cash out. Same here... but we know how UP to two" ends... 0 is in range lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 National Weather Service Nashville TN 155 PM CST Wed Jan 5 2022 .DISCUSSION... Today`s temperatures have rebounded to slightly warmer than normal levels, in the upper 40s and lower 50s with breezy winds. This is occurring ahead of an initially dry frontal passage this afternoon that will help set us up for wintry wx tomorrow. Lows tonight are expected to drop into the 20s areawide. By daybreak Thursday, a strong and intensifying H5 jet streak is forecast to be racing from the Central Plains toward Tennessee. At the same time, a surface low pressure area is expected to form across southern MS that will track northeastward along the Arctic front through central AL/GA into the Carolinas. Strong lift associated with both features atop the Arctic airmass will create widespread precipitation that will spread into Middle Tennessee starting around 10Z Thursday, covering the whole area by midday before quickly exiting during the afternoon as the surface low and upper shortwave depart. Forecast soundings from all available models continue to indicate all snow throughout the event along and north of I-40. South of I-40 and especially in the counties near the Alabama border, some forecast soundings (NAM, HRRR, SREF) show a warm nose at the onset of precip Thursday morning that will erode as precipitation spreads and cold advection increases. We think the cold air will win out with mostly low impacts from freezing rain and sleet. However, these warm nose situations often complicate our winter forecasts, so people in our southern counties should be prepared for the potential of at least some glaze development. Because of the mixed precip type, our southern counties should see the lowest snow totals with around 1 to possibly 2 inches. Along and north of I-40, we continue to forecast about 3 inches of snow. However, 12Z models have shown a substantial increase in qpf. This could translate to snow amounts pushing over 4 to maybe 6 inches for areas along and north of I-40 and this would require a Winter Storm Warning. Our reason for keeping the advisory in place is the sudden jump in model qpf. We would like to view updated model information this evening to see consistency before pushing these higher amounts. Since we are already pushing the upper bounds of advisory criteria, it is quite possible our evening or overnight crews may decide to issue a warning for parts of even much of our area with higher snowfall totals if models maintain support for it. Once snow gets going, temperatures will stay below freezing throughout the day on Thursday, with lows falling into the teens and single digits by Friday morning. Whatever ice/snow that falls will easily accumulate on roads and create hazardous travel conditions as we go through the day on Thursday and especially Thursday night into Friday morning. Although some sunshine is expected Friday, temperatures will struggle to climb beyond the 20s. lows Friday night will be very cold again, in the teens. An upper level ridge will build up quickly for Saturday with highs in the 40s. This is a little lower than previous forecasts and guidance since we expect a good deal of snow to be on the ground, holding back temp rises. The warm advection will continue Saturday night into Sunday, but the pattern will also bring moisture, meaning widespread rain showers. Another front will swing across the area Sunday evening. A brief flurry could occur as the cold front chases out the rain showers, but no accumulating snow. After this system, a return to cold, dry weather is expected for at least the first half of next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 getting a bit nervous here, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 What?? "However, 12Z models have shown a substantial increase in qpf. This could translate to snow amounts pushing over 4 to maybe 6 inches for areas along and north of I-40 and this would require a Winter Storm Warning. Our reason for keeping the advisory in place is the sudden jump in model qpf." Models have been showing 4-6 inches in northern Middle and the plateau for days on end. Not sure where this "sudden jump" talk came from. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, Kentucky said: getting a bit nervous here, lol You seem to be in a golden spot for 6-8 inches. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 NWS jinx in full effect!They would have seen the NAM before they wrote the forecast. I’m assuming they believe it’s too amped . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 What?? "However, 12Z models have shown a substantial increase in qpf. This could translate to snow amounts pushing over 4 to maybe 6 inches for areas along and north of I-40 and this would require a Winter Storm Warning. Our reason for keeping the advisory in place is the sudden jump in model qpf." Models have been showing 4-6 inches in northern Middle and the plateau for days on end. Not sure where this "sudden jump" talk came from. That was unexpected . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 The 12k NAM remains the very northern/slower guidance here. The 3k is slightly better than the 12k. I'll be curious to see where the remainder of 18z goes. The HRRR was better than the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse from KY Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I heard that a few of the models (HRRR, NAM & Hi-res NAM) trended further north with the heavier snowfall. How likely is that? And could that mean lower snow for areas like Bell County, KY? I live in the North side near the Clay County line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: What?? "However, 12Z models have shown a substantial increase in qpf. This could translate to snow amounts pushing over 4 to maybe 6 inches for areas along and north of I-40 and this would require a Winter Storm Warning. Our reason for keeping the advisory in place is the sudden jump in model qpf." Models have been showing 4-6 inches in northern Middle and the plateau for days on end. Not sure where this "sudden jump" talk came from. Agree, this is crazy talk. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jesse from KY said: I heard that a few of the models (HRRR, NAM & Hi-res NAM) trended further north with the heavier snowfall. How likely is that? And could that mean lower snow for areas like Bell County, KY? I live in the North side near the Clay County line. Bell is 4-6 inches across all modeling. The axis of the heaviest snow is furthest NW in the 12k 18z NAM. It's more wound up and comes across at more of an angle. The NAM is notorious for overamping systems. Where the NAM does hit the hardest, its showing much heavier snow than all other models. I personally don't believe it will be correct. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Bell is 4-6 inches across all modeling. The axis of the heaviest snow is furthest NW in the 12k 18z NAM. It's more wound up and comes across at more of an angle. The NAM is notorious for overamping systems. Where the NAM does hit the hardest, its showing much heavier snow than all other models. I personally don't believe it will be correct. I think you are going to cash in. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 RGem is coming in a bit south and slightly weaker than the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 RGEM is gonna be nice to everyone except the southern border counties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 Still snowing in NE TN and parts of SWVa at this time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 Pretty big freezing rain event in North Miss and North Alabama. I assume there may be some sleet in the areas below the snow cover and above the ZR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RawCrabMeat Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, John1122 said: Still snowing in NE TN and parts of SWVa at this time. That gradient north of Alabama. 1-6 in half a county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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