PowellVolz Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 The NAM is usually amped which means it has the most prominent warm nose. Which is a really good sign for Knoxville as of now assuming the NAM is doing what it does. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Would be nice to get one system without rain being involved... we'll seeWe are trending that direction as of now. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Yeah, wrt my question earlier, the only notable enhancement to lift they mention is : "additionally think the Plateau counties up into southwest VA will also see higheramounts as they`re near the PVA which will help bring down theprecipitation at a much faster rate. Further down in the valleythings are much more uncertain specifically because of uncertaintyin how fast the column saturates and how warm they get during theday."What is a PVA? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I think they're talking about the 500 mb vort (positive vorticity advection). I mean it is backing the flow out of the southwest some, but it is def. not a big wrapped up vort like the last storm: I guess it is better than nothing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: What is a PVA? . https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/223/ Explains it better than I ever could. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 WRT to what EastKnox just posted, I think on that description (and I could def. be wrong), this section is the most significant edit: for this situation: "PVA is NOT under the vort max but is rather in the downstream area from it. Any variation in the vorticity isoline spacing, wind speed or angle the wind vectors intersect the vorticity isolines over space and time will change the advection of vorticity and will subsequently change the magnitude of PVA. In a situation where there is a vort lobe, in the downstream region of the vort lobe, some areas within the region will have greater PVA than others depending on variations in vorticity isoline spacing, wind speed and the angle of intersection between vorticity isolines and wind vectors." 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I'm a lot less excited about this storm than the last one. I actually think we had better chances of accumulation from the last storm. I strongly suspect this trends to 100% rain for almost all of SE TN outside the mountains. Flash freezing after the rain may be an issue though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I would be ecstatic if this system could produce 3" for KTRI. Monday's system left a sour taste in my mouth. Models overdid the upper NE Valley regardless of the snow holes in the deformation band. But we're playing with much colder air this go around with entirely different flow aloft. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 18z RGEM a little more pronounced warm nose..I would basically draw a line from Spring City, Loudon, to Maryville...if you are above that line, I think confidence is good. Alot of uncertainty south of it..doesn't take much wiggle from the 850 to have a big consequence below it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 18z RGEM a little more pronounced warm nose..I would basically draw a line from Spring City, Loudon, to Maryville...if you are above that line, I think confidence is good. Alot of uncertainty south of it..doesn't take much wiggle from the 850 to have a big consequence below it.I believe that’s petty close to where the NAM has it. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Convection along the GOM robbed the last system of moisture which caused the amounts to be less. I think @Daniel Boonewas on the money with that. No convection this time the I am aware of. That MAY allow this system to perform as modeled or even over-perform. GOM convection is an absolute pain in the neck. Oddly for MBY, modeling repeatedly put me on the cut-off for this last system. Sure enough, I was on the wrong side of it! LOL. 18z RGEM and NAM looked good. They increased amounts quite a bit. Good sign. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I believe that’s petty close to where the NAM has it. . RGEM takes the LLJ winds up to Monroe/Loudon line...NAM takes it to N. Knox, maybe a little too much amping on the Nam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 18z GFS keeps the LLJ south of TN border 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 RGEM takes the LLJ winds up to Monroe/Loudon line...NAM takes it to N. Knox, maybe a little too much amping on the Nam I didn’t see if you posted but how much did you get from Sunday?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: I didn’t see if you posted but how much did you get from Sunday? . 4"...alot of melting/compaction or would have been closer to 6" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Keeping the LLJ south of the border brought @nrgjeffinto play on the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1. Tri Cities should do better, or at least be more consistent @Carvers Gap. 2. I'm never excited about Chattanooga @dwagner88. Last post of the day. Cheers! 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RawCrabMeat Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 18z gfs https://c.tenor.com/fzCvA9gJJhMAAAAC/anakin-i-pledge-myself.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 As @John1122noted earlier, a slower solution allows a little more amping. Rob Peter to pay Paul depending on if you are in the NW or SE corners of the state. Shap of TN is what makes a state wide snow that much more difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 18z GEFS 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I wish they would use different colors on these maps lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Wow, pretty consistent with a lot of the members on 18z GEFS. Looking like low odds of a complete whiff. Great model agreement in general. Feeling good about this one! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 WVLT's house model must be the Hinkin 2000. Their model shows 3/10ths total in Crossville, 2/10ths in Oneida, 3/10ths in Knox, 7/10ths here. The met for them noted the South Valley dry slot would get Knoxville and south, so not much below Knox. I'm honestly not sure that he even believes what he's saying but he says it anyway. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 11 minutes ago, John1122 said: WVLT's house model must be the Hinkin 2000. Their model shows 3/10ths total in Crossville, 2/10ths in Oneida, 3/10ths in Knox, 7/10ths here. The met for them noted the South Valley dry slot would get Knoxville and south, so not much below Knox. I'm honestly not sure that he even believes what he's saying but he says it anyway. Maybe it is confusing total QPF with Snow accumulation! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 15 minutes ago, John1122 said: WVLT's house model must be the Hinkin 2000. Their model shows 3/10ths total in Crossville, 2/10ths in Oneida, 3/10ths in Knox, 7/10ths here. The met for them noted the South Valley dry slot would get Knoxville and south, so not much below Knox. I'm honestly not sure that he even believes what he's saying but he says it anyway. I agree, I’m not sure he knows what he’s looking at! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 20 minutes ago, John1122 said: WVLT's house model must be the Hinkin 2000. Their model shows 3/10ths total in Crossville, 2/10ths in Oneida, 3/10ths in Knox, 7/10ths here. The met for them noted the South Valley dry slot would get Knoxville and south, so not much below Knox. I'm honestly not sure that he even believes what he's saying but he says it anyway. Have to love Broadcast Mets lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VOLtage Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 nam 3k seems to be a bit of an outlier on the conservative side 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RawCrabMeat Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, VOLtage said: nam 3k seems to be a bit of an outlier on the conservative side Funny thing is, if that verified, it'd only be slightly less than I got Sunday night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 18z Euro 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 24 minutes ago, VOLtage said: nam 3k seems to be a bit of an outlier on the conservative side Well, now I know the WVLT house model. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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