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OBS-NOWCAST for the first moderate to high impact snowstorm of the 21-22 season, along and south of I95 3AM-7PM Monday January 3, 2022

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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MJO812
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Rmine1

Rmine1

Posted
Posted 
“Most intense snow expected with potential 1/2 inch to 1 inch per hour rates between 3 and 6 PM for southern and eastern portions of Suffolk
County. Winter weather advisory remains in effect until 7PM for
these areas”

not sure about this, as I’m in “southern” Suffolk and it’s completely stopped snowing 

 

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psv88

psv88

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1 minute ago, Rmine1 said: 
“Most intense snow expected with potential 1/2 inch to 1 inch per hour rates between 3 and 6 PM for southern and eastern portions of Suffolk
County. Winter weather advisory remains in effect until 7PM for
these areas”

not sure about this, as I’m in “southern” Suffolk and it’s completely stopped snowing 

 

Wait 10 minutes, its not 3 pm yet...

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kat5hurricane

kat5hurricane

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Snow plowers and salt spreaders driving around lol

And people at work, and friends at home, asking me where's the snow? I said, what snow? 

I don't watch the news much anymore so I assume that the news was hyping it up because everybody I know seems to think we were supposed to get a snowstorm. I still don't know why anybody watches TV meterologists anymore.

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dseagull

dseagull

Posted
Posted

28.3/31.  BARNEGAT NJ. Tapering flurries.  Ended up with 8.9 inch avg over 3 boards.   Wind made this storm tricky and I did no interval measurements.  Have some 2.5-3' drifts in my marina back yard.  Over performing storm for my areas and points south, if you eliminated the outlier runs with northern QPF.  

Without the last 2 pivot bands, I would have sat around 5 inches.   Interesting scenario and fun to watch.  Should be interesting to go back and look at last night's mesos, today's, and tomorrow's.   

I'm fascinated with watching how one storm may or may not carve the path for another in the same general pattern with similar connections.  I-95 special? 

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, wdrag said:

So, what do the EPS and GEFS ensembles look like 12 hours into a forecast. The 12z/3 cycle attached ending 00z this evening.  This is only 1 vendor.  

So the EPS looks more throughly available... but notice how much light snow it put into the dry air nw of I95.  Ditto the less spatially complete GEFS, but there as well,   too much snow into the dry air and these are only 12 hours into the forecast. So there were still a variety of solutions with the 12z init.  

This tries to demonstrate some limitations in the ensemble utility...  the core axis should usually should be reasonable in big systems, presuming it's consistent, not wind shield wiper  = back and forth.

 

 

Interesting post. By their very nature, ensemble means will be more expansive at the edges than reality. One or two outliers can blur and mask the true sharpness of the gradient. That's probably part of the issue. But I wouldn't expect that to be so noticable at 12hrs. I think the handling of mid-level dry air may be an issue on the EC as well as the GFS (and maybe others?).

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eduggs

eduggs

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Posted
11 minutes ago, dseagull said:

28.3/31.  BARNEGAT NJ. Tapering flurries.  Ended up with 8.9 inch avg over 3 boards.   Wind made this storm tricky and I did no interval measurements.  Have some 2.5-3' drifts in my marina back yard.  Over performing storm for my areas and points south, if you eliminated the outlier runs with northern QPF.  

Without the last 2 pivot bands, I would have sat around 5 inches.   Interesting scenario and fun to watch.  Should be interesting to go back and look at last night's mesos, today's, and tomorrow's.   

I'm fascinated with watching how one storm may or may not carve the path for another in the same general pattern with similar connections.  I-95 special? 

Can you squeak out another .1" to get to 9"?

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dseagull

dseagull

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Posted
9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Can you squeak out another .1" to get to 9"?

 

May have, but already left my backyard station.  Manahawkin looks to maybe have 10 from what I am hearing.  Somers Point apparently has over a foot.  Cant confirm. Somebody will jackpot with 13-15.  Had some great rates south of me for 5 plus hours. 

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wdrag

wdrag

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1 hour ago, eduggs said:

Interesting post. By their very nature, ensemble means will be more expansive at the edges than reality. One or two outliers can blur and mask the true sharpness of the gradient. That's probably part of the issue. But I wouldn't expect that to be so noticable at 12hrs. I think the handling of mid-level dry air may be an issue on the EC as well as the GFS (and maybe others?).

I agree.  I'm not in direct conversation with NWS colleagues.  So they may be more aware than I of this problem... no question it was a serious issue with GFS on this event.  

Sometimes you fix one thing and something else goes bad. 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

More spring in the Rockies record warmth near record snow like we have seen in recent years.

  

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1257 AM EST MON JAN 03 2022

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT GEORGETOWN DE...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 68 WAS TIED AT GEORGETOWN DE YESTERDAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 68 SET IN 2000.


  

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
359 PM EST Mon Jan 3 2022

...UPDATED SNOWFALL REPORTS FOR MONDAY JANUARY 3RD...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider             

...Delaware...
Sussex County...
Georgetown                   12.0 in   0346 PM 01/03   Trained Spotter

 

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wdrag

wdrag

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I'll add the CoCoRAHS snowfall on here as a wrap late Tuesday.  

Clearly this thread was biased too far north and inaccurate for our area. 1/2/22 EC OP, SREF were not helpful.  12z/2 EC OP was my greater disappointment...SREF we know it can have issues at the edges and then the GFS not drying out north fringe qpf.

The gradient from 1" to 12" in coastal s NJ will be very large when all is evaluated. I think it went from a Trace of melted w.e. to 1.26" at Atlantic City over a 60 mile distance.  The gradient may have been even tighter.

The good news is the mid Atlantic did get hit hard as others were pointing out and now a pseudo warm frontal boundary may be set up to our south (snow depth s NJ through VA).

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