EastonSN+ Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The difference in February with a raging -PNA and -AO/NAO is that due to wavelength change the pattern would be markedly different than Dec...you would never have a massive SER in February or March under those same conditions Yeah this is why I am not looking at the return of the RNA in Feb as the end to a good stretch. To me it will have little negative affect to our snow chances as compared to now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: That’s why we discuss the 500 mb patterns where the actual height anomalies are located. Raw teleconnection indices by themselves don’t tell you very much. Models are good at identifying the long range long wave patterns. These 500 mb patterns give a good broad sketch of what type of weather is possible within a certain domain. Back in December, the deep Western Trough that the models forecast from mid to late November was the dominant feature. So the lack of snow then was no surprise given the type of 500 mb pattern being shown. As soon as the trough began to lift out of the West in early January, we got the 6-10” snow event. This has matched the past climatology for our area following Pacific pattern changes. Yup, and the RNA in Feb can actually lead to a favorable snow pattern for us. I can see us col and dry this month and multiple overrunning events in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Gfs op cold and dry for the rest of the month. Gefs out to sea with any threat next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Gfs op cold and dry for the rest of the month. Gefs out to sea with any threat next weekend One way too look at it, but also every model has a LP system pop off the coast next weekend with the Canadian having it in the nicest position before heading out to see. With the NW trends we keep seeing it's probably best it's showing up, but heading out for sea on every model right now lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Gfs op cold and dry for the rest of the month. Gefs out to sea with any threat next weekend Good that means something is coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, Jt17 said: One way too look at it, but also every model has a LP system pop off the coast next weekend with the Canadian having it in the nicest position before heading out to see. With the NW trends we keep seeing it's probably best it's showing up, but heading out for sea on every model right now lol We want it out to sea right now with no indication of blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I’m backkkk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I’m backkkk That will come back but you are looking at an op run close to 300 hours out. Let's focus on the active period ahead to see if we can cash in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Personally, I'd much rather be looking at a situation where something is shown OTS at this range. Maybe that would actually work out for us in the end. Instead of being shown as a hit right now but ultimately end up over Pittsburgh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 As of today, Hunter Mt is reporting 6 inches os snow for season That is on par for 2015…which is a historically low season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Still only 17 here in Long Beach. Low was 10-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The low of 10° in NYC is colder than the last two winters that didn’t drop below 14°. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2022-04-30 10 105 2021-04-30 14 0 2020-04-30 14 0 2019-04-30 2 0 2018-04-30 5 0 2017-04-30 14 0 2016-04-30 -1 0 2015-04-30 2 0 2014-04-30 4 0 2013-04-30 11 0 2012-04-30 13 0 2011-04-30 6 0 2010-04-30 13 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: I’m backkkk Good! Better than cold and dry with that look we can get overrunning snows! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Good! Better than cold and dry with that look we can get overrunning snows! Also that's a negative AO. Bowling balls cutting underneath! That look to me is tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Next weekend looks a little better on the Euro. Given the trend of the winter for storms to trend NW I kind of like the spot it's in right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Euro looks like the ggem for next weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 13* here currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Euro looks like the ggem for next weekend Hard to believe the southern MA is going to get smoked twice in a month (although not impossible). But definitely think this one may come NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro looks like the ggem for next weekend Very close I'm more worried about this running inland 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Very close I'm more worried about this running inland Agree but high is in a great position right now. But we know that can change in a week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Very close I'm more worried about this running inland COMPLETELY AGREE. Low over the lakes bothers me. Way more concerned about cutting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: COMPLETELY AGREE. Low over the lakes bothers me. Way more concerned about cutting. There isn't alot of blocking to squash this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: I do agree. Example would be February 2018 where all the Teles we're against snowfall and we had a 4 to 8 inch snow event. Just looking at the teles would say we had no shot at snow. Dont fear the MJO phase 5! One has to be careful how one uses the teleconnections. A given combination e.g., AO-/PNA+ may have resulted in X% days with measurable snowfall, while an AO+/PNA- resulted in Y% days with measurable snowfall (much less, in this case than X%). In neither case is the percentage 0%. So, one has a quick idea—a starting point—that one pattern typically sees more frequent measurable snowfall than another. Existence of a given pattern does not guarantee any outcomes. The error many make is that they place too much certainty on outcomes (deterministic thinking over probabilistic thinking). One can proceed further to break each general scenario into clusters (500 mb, etc.) for further insight. Again, even if one cluster has had a high percentage of measurable snowfall outcomes, nothing is assured. Without a storm system, there is no precipitation. Without sufficient cold (atmosphere and near surface), there is no snowfall. Without a good alignment of synoptic features, one can see scenarios ranging from rainfall to no precipitation at all. One sees similar issues in thinking when it comes to other widely-cited variables such as the MJO. There are cases where a high amplitude MJO passage through one of the Phases leads to outcomes that differ markedly from the more typical outcomes. The same also applies to ENSO. Seasonal and sub-seasonal outcomes may well vary widely from the so-called canonical outcomes. No one variable—ENSO, MJO, SSTA distributions, teleconnections—explains more than a small piece of the overall picture. The deterministic line of reasoning—if variable is in X state then expect Y outcome—oversimplifies things and can create forecasting blind spots. These forecasting blind spots can be especially large when one is relying on analogs. Sometimes things work out well, but just because one case evolved into a given outcome over a 1-3 month timeframe, there is no assurance that a similar case will do so. If one recalls, Social Media was abuzz with the 1995-1996 analog back in early December. Nothing remotely like that exceptional winter season has played out (and given differing states of the PDO, among other things, the probability of such an evolution was always low). One needs to look deeper. The models and ensembles make this possible. Even then, one should beware of model limitations and the reality that there remains a degree of uncertainty. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: I’m backkkk Yep. Good call on the RNA coming back the tail end of the month into February. Full-latitude trough back in the west 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yep. Good call on the RNA coming back the tail end of the month into February. Full-latitude trough back in the west Bet it works out better for us this go around snowfall wise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yep. Good call on the RNA coming back the tail end of the month into February. Full-latitude trough back in the west As long as the -PNA doesn’t go crazy like in December we should be fine especially if we get a -NAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, dmillz25 said: As long as the -PNA doesn’t go crazy like in December we should be fine especially if we get a -NAO Yup. This IS a repeat of December which is good as.... 1.) Highly unlikely we go recorded RNA twice in one season 2.) As Don and Snowgoose alluded to RNA is less hostile in February (2nd half). Also this may mean that the January look returns in March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks Don. Curious if there are stats on February's with an RNA negative AO combo (basically a subdued December repeat). Like you said the larger events are probably heavily skewed towards end of the month. I wouldn’t compare it to December. Shorter wave lengths can lead to troughs in the East. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: I wouldn’t compare it to December. Shorter wave lengths can lead to troughs in the East. Thanks Don! Actually getting excited about February and March! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yup. This IS a repeat of December which is good as.... 1.) Highly unlikely we go recorded RNA twice in one season 2.) As Don and Snowgoose alluded to RNA is less hostile in February (2nd half). Also this may mean that the January look returns in March! I wouldn’t compare it to December also for the simple fact that I don’t think we see -NAO this time around. The long range models are suggesting +NAO in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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