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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, but it makes it unlikely that he is simply "fishing for hits", which is what you implied.

Fair enough. He's pretty legit. 

 

But I still believe that they’re all searching for hits…it drives their business..period. 


3 plus weeks from now is a guess for the very most part. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Fair enough. He's pretty legit. 

 

But I still believe that they’re all searching for hits…it drives their business..period. 


3 plus weeks from now is a guess for the very most part. 

If you actually think about what he said, its not a big leap of faith. He simply noted that the PV is nearing record strength in latter January, which it is, and that that is often correlated to a milder February. Not exactly a detail oriented long forecast, nor a way to drum up hits from a group of weather enthusiasts craving blizzards.

Ugh....I need to do something else.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He is the chief met in a major Boston market and just published a popular book, I think he's good in that respect. May just be that he feels this winter blows.

I do get the sense that he feels the winter has been awful (and not in a good way).  The TV broadcast METS appear to be bored out of their minds. 

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you actually think about what he said, its not a big leap of faith. He simply noted that the PV is nearing record strength in latter January, which it is, and that that is often correlated to a milder February. Not exactly a detail oriented long forecast, nor a way to drum up hits from a group of weather enthusiasts craving blizzards.

Ugh....I need to do something else.

But that also doesn’t necessarily mean we have to cram some winter into the next two weeks, or we toast.  That’s the somewhat misleading part imo. But hey, you can believe him completely. I’m choosing not to. It’s all good. 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you actually think about what he said, its not a big leap of faith. He simply noted that the PV is nearing record strength in latter January, which it is, and that that is often correlated to a milder February. Not exactly a detail oriented long forecast, nor a way to drum up hits from a group of weather enthusiasts craving blizzards.

Ugh....I need to do something else.

Let’s will the month end superstorm to produce in OBY’s, then Feb thaw out and  give rise to the dew and install bickering.

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7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But that also doesn’t necessarily mean we have to cram some winter into the next two weeks, or we toast.  That’s the somewhat misleading part imo. But hey, you can believe him completely. I’m choosing not to. It’s all good. 

Not what I said....stop putting words into my mouth. We are getting to the point at which many of us ARE going to need to cram some winter into a short period in order to even threaten climo...that is simply fact. And a very strong PV makes that more difficult to do....true, or false?

Impossible, no. However, I do not like my chances of maintaining the great PAC that we have had throughout January for very long into February.

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

But that also doesn’t necessarily mean we have to cram some winter into the next two weeks, or we toast.  That’s the somewhat misleading part imo. But hey, you can believe him completely. I’m choosing not to. It’s all good. 

SNE better start cramming some winter weather  into the next 2 weeks because after then the time to do so becomes shorter and shorter with each passing day. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not what I said....stop putting words into my mouth. We are getting to the point at which many of us ARE going to need to cram some winter into a short period in order to even threaten climo...that is simply fact. And a very strong PV makes that more difficult to do....true, or false?

Impossible, no. However, I do not like my chances of maintaining the great PAC that we have had throughout January very long into February.

Agree.....

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I'm honestly not sure what to expect in February....model guidance still wants to have a monster Bering Strait ridge....which is NOT a warm pattern overall for us. But if the PNA goes negative enough, we could end up with the SE ridge getting us too much like it did in December....but part of me thinks that's pretty unlikely as that was an extreme -PNA that is unlikely to persist that long again. Typically those only last a few days.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I'm honestly not sure what to expect in February....model guidance still wants to have a monster Bering Strait ridge....which is NOT a warm pattern overall for us. But if the PNA goes negative enough, we could end up with the SE ridge getting us too much like it did in December....but part of me thinks that's pretty unlikely as that was an extreme -PNA that is unlikely to persist that long again. Typically those only last a few days.

I agree.....no way the RNA will be as prohibitive. I do not think Feb is a lost cause.

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not what I said....stop putting words into my mouth. We are getting to the point at which many of us ARE going to need to cram some winter into a short period in order to even threaten climo...that is simply fact. And a very strong PV makes that more difficult to do....true, or false?

Impossible, no. However, I do not like my chances of maintaining the great PAC that we have had throughout January for very long into February.

It’s not worth engaging with the everything is awesome crowd.

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8 minutes ago, GCWarrior said:

Seems like there are chances in the 26th-29th timeframe.  Canadian at 12z has some fun with the clipper.  

Ukie likes that clipper too for a redeveloper situation.

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22 minutes ago, GCWarrior said:

Seems like there are chances in the 26th-29th timeframe.  Canadian at 12z has some fun with the clipper.  

Yeah GEM brought back the 26th, while the gfs and gefs individual members are mostly pretty lame for that period.

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29 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

SNE better start cramming some winter weather  into the next 2 weeks because after then the time to do so becomes shorter and shorter with each passing day. 

Really?  Cuz February is the snowiest month..so I respectfully disagree with you on that one.  

 

Just speaking for my location, we are fine here..very easy to reach normal snowfall, with two weeks of January left, and all of February (the snowiest month) to go. But I’m speaking for here.    
 

Just because some of us aren’t locked into the doom and gloom that others are, doesn’t make us wrong either.  I completely  understand, it could all go south and we rat.  That can happen.  However, I’m choosing not to believe that currently, with what I see presented before me at this time.

I realize that others are not in as good of shape, and can understand the frustration completely.  When we had to listen how great feb 2015 was out east..it wasn’t all that spectacular over here(still good), but no record breaker... not by a long shot. So I get it. 
 

 

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