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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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Just now, weathafella said:

We have a raging La Niña?

Yes, the La Niña has increased in strength even more and has crossed the moderate threshold. It crossed the -1.0 threshold about a week ago in the 3.4 region, -1.3 in the enso 3 region, -1.6 in the enso 1.2 region, and -.4 in the Enso 4 region. One thing I learned from reading the mid Atlantic forums is they often get screwed in la ninas, even when things look good just a couple days out. Even last year, in that big December storm it started with the lower mid Atlantic getting hammered and us being on the northern edge. Then just a few days out, it started trending north, and just kept trending north right up until it started snowing. That storm must have moved like 400-500 miles north on the models in just 3-4 days, we went from the southern edge to the northern edge, and the bullseye which was intially modeled to be in the lower mid Atlantic ended up being in upstate NY, with some areas getting over 3 feet. My area got about 15 inches or so. I don’t think it trends that far north since it’s only 2 days out, but even 100 miles north would be enough to bring a major nor’easter to eastern mass.

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14 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yes, the La Niña has increased in strength even more and has crossed the moderate threshold. It crossed the -1.0 threshold about a week ago in the 3.4 region, -1.3 in the enso 3 region, -1.6 in the enso 1.2 region, and -.4 in the Enso 4 region. One thing I learned from reading the mid Atlantic forums is they often get screwed in la ninas, even when things look good just a couple days out. Even last year, in that big December storm it started with the lower mid Atlantic getting hammered and us being on the northern edge. Then just a few days out, it started trending north, and just kept trending north right up until it started snowing. That storm must have moved like 400-500 miles north on the models in just 3-4 days, we went from the southern edge to the northern edge, and the bullseye which was intially modeled to be in the lower mid Atlantic ended up being in upstate NY, with some areas getting over 3 feet. My area got about 15 inches or so. I don’t think it trends that far north since it’s only 2 days out, but even 100 miles north would be enough to bring a major nor’easter to eastern mass.

George, La Niña isn't judged on dailies.  it's tri monthly.  Not every wx event is explainable just by throwing enso at the wall.

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18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

George, La Niña isn't judged on dailies.  it's tri monthly.  Not every wx event is explainable just by throwing enso at the wall.

You are both are correct in a way...this event is a significantly more prominent driver in the atmosphere than ONI would imply. But I also wince when people cite daily readings....weekly is worth following....

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