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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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47 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

 

I don’t want to be Debbie downer but I smell a bust on this one. After seeing the 6z gfs just kinda go poof with the qpf it kinda put the nail in the coffin for me 

Yea, I agree…. I will be your Neighbor till Weds. (Snowshoe WV) I was hoping you and I could pull it back west but not looking good

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10 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Really the only thing that intrigues me at this point are Monday morning commute implications.  Some models (GFS) shows potential for some stuff Sunday night and temperatures will dip below freezing.

That band of heavy snow showers it keeps trying to swing through after the main system has certainly piqued my interest. As you noted, it comes through in dark with temps well below freezing and right before the commute. The main system Sunday has certainly trended to a daylight event and I think central VA is the most likely candidate for a couple inches of snow but even there it will be low impact as it will be falling in daylight with temps at most near freezing if not a hair or two above

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HRRR has precip from the coastal back to the triangle. Just a hair too late for anything significant there but it’s a much more potent storm for just about everyone else and would certainly have a higher ceiling. On its island but definitely interesting to see nonetheless 

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51 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

@Buddy1987 you will really like the HRRR

 

50 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

HRRR drops 6 inches in some NC foothill locations. 

Damn! HRRR escalated things quickly although it’s long rang HRRR so I’m taking it with a grain of salt. 12z Nam was more aggressive as well so maybe I waived the white flag too soon. 

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4 hours ago, chris624wx said:

00z GFS came in a lot wetter for SE VA this run

snku_acc.us_ma.png

A few of the others did too, will be interesting to see if anyone in our area squeezes out more than a dusting.

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