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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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8 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’ll trade about 20 of my 90+ degree days for some 70’s with someone. Anyone? 

Yeah, I'm good to part with the week or two of 97+ early August weather.

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11 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

The nam just came out has most of the snow now in va mtns and towards dc. Which you think is more right in your opinion?

Right now, a blend of the RGEM, GFS, and Euro, which favors the mountains, foothills and up into central VA

I think between Martinsville and Lynchburg will do quite well

 

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While I don’t expect anything other than token flakes in my neck of the woods, I am starting to feel more confident those in the foothills/northern triad/SW Va/central Va will see an advisory level snow, probably 1-2” 
 

Models are *somewhat* converging on this idea, though they take different routes to get there 

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4 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

It’s pretty remarkable to see the 180 the NAM has taken from previous years. Use to be way overdone with qpf, now has to play catch-up and increase qpf up to go time with each storm.

I’ve been thinking this all season. It’s done that literally every storm this year. Usually way too amped at long range with every low but the opposite this year

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16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

While I don’t expect anything other than token flakes in my neck of the woods, I am starting to feel more confident those in the foothills/northern triad/SW Va/central Va will see an advisory level snow, probably 1-2” 
 

Models are *somewhat* converging on this idea, though they take different routes to get there 

My only hesitation is all those areas without decent elevation are going to have temp (34-36 degrees outside of the heaviest rates) sun angle, soil temp issues (in descending order of importance here). Banding will need to develop to get the job done. The shift to mid-day instead of early morning hurts us here. In fact the 12z RGEM pulls decent banding through Raleigh in the evening, where timing had actually improved.

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22 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

While I don’t expect anything other than token flakes in my neck of the woods, I am starting to feel more confident those in the foothills/northern triad/SW Va/central Va will see an advisory level snow, probably 1-2” 
 

Models are *somewhat* converging on this idea, though they take different routes to get there 

 

18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I think a general 1-2" will be common up this way with maybe 3-4" in some of the mountains.

I don’t want to be Debbie downer but I smell a bust on this one. After seeing the 6z gfs just kinda go poof with the qpf it kinda put the nail in the coffin for me 

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7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

 

I don’t want to be Debbie downer but I smell a bust on this one. After seeing the 6z gfs just kinda go poof with the qpf it kinda put the nail in the coffin for me 

Ensembles looked better than the Op and Euro actually improved. Hard to call a 1-2” advisory snow a bust if it doesn’t amount to that much haha

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