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November 28-29 Storm Threat


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1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

18z GEFS show a lot of whiffs.  Tips "correction vector" doesn't bode well.  Hopefully we'll see a better clustering of them closer in with the 00z run

That hypothetical’s actually pointed in favor…

The ballast of the mass fields that are relevant to the scenario, those being timing the progressive positive PNA with a -NAO …just getting ready to reverse phases tends to place a storm track from the Del Marva to east of Cape Cod - that’s the ‘vector’ in that facet.

I think that what we’re seeing is a coalescence in that favor albeit slowly - but day five that’s understandable

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48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

 

I would hope there’s nooone surprised at this turning into a moderate to perhaps significant event. As soon as we saw multi model/ensemble agreement yesterday.. this went from “sniffing out” a SNE event to “honing in” on amounts .  I just took a top down view and felt at least.. a solid 4-8” event for SNE was very likely 

LOL

Moderate IS significant

… What are you saying? It’s not important unless it’s massive haha

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If we can get H5 to close off around or just south of Long Island this will be a pretty solid event for a good part of the region (obviously with time of year typical caveats will apply towards the coast). Phasing of the two s/w's will be key too but even if we don't see phasing...that nrn stream is significant enough to where it may be able to compensate (i.e. tracking over or just south of Long Island).

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If we can get H5 to close off around or just south of Long Island this will be a pretty solid event for a good part of the region (obviously with time of year typical caveats will apply towards the coast). Phasing of the two s/w's will be key too but even if we don't see phasing...that nrn stream is significant enough to where it may be able to compensate (i.e. tracking over or just south of Long Island).

Any severe potential? Talk dirty, dirty, filthy rotten lapse rates to me

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Just now, dryslot said:

Sucks don't it though, But its early.

I'm just looking at the 18z GFS now but per that solution you almost wonder if it's not totally accurate with it's surface depiction. Here is 6z Monday. H5 is closed off over PA. But then look at the SLP. I would expect a sfc low more southwest and probably a bit more consolidated and stronger based off this look along with the jet structure. One thing to note though is it is generating a ton of convection which if accurate would impact development. 

image.png.3e901d6ab8bbe9e45086752a5b1b88e9.png

image.png.b90612be7510f4f4a6208fa07274c962.png

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6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm just looking at the 18z GFS now but per that solution you almost wonder if it's not totally accurate with it's surface depiction. Here is 6z Monday. H5 is closed off over PA. But then look at the SLP. I would expect a sfc low more southwest and probably a bit more consolidated and stronger based off this look along with the jet structure. One thing to note though is it is generating a ton of convection which if accurate would impact development. 

image.png.3e901d6ab8bbe9e45086752a5b1b88e9.png

image.png.b90612be7510f4f4a6208fa07274c962.png

Its not totally closed and elongated some east so that would affect it at the surface, Convection always plays a roll as well as latent heat release out ahead on the final track, But were still a few cycles away from the outcome obviously.

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its not totally closed and elongated some east so that would affect it at the surface, Convection always plays a roll as well as latent heat release out ahead on the final track, But were still a few cycles away from the outcome obviously.

yeah not totally closed. just a bit weird looking. favoring the convection possibly...but way too far out to probably focus on that too much. For this time range there's lots of favorable pieces and movement which is good to see. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

yeah not totally closed. just a bit weird looking. favoring the convection possibly...but way too far out to probably focus on that too much. For this time range there's lots of favorable pieces and movement which is good to see. 

Lot of moving parts, No phase, Partial phase has been the theme so far, Just a much better time to track then HHH, But i know you like the convective side of weather.

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This is really a Clipper … just knifing down a tad east of climo.

I wonder if there might be thunder around the Lakes as those jet mechanics cone over top because there’s a pocket of good low to mid level cold lapse rates on the left exit-entrance axis …meanwhile the lakes are still relatively warm.  

Happened in Cleveland in Novie ‘86 … It’s like that only rotated. Anyway just a thought  

Reasonable continuity in the new NAM  …albeit the NAM way out there  There’s a pig ton of wind loading still dumping into the trough north west of Minnesota coming over the ridge arc in this run though  it would likely carve 

 

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Lot of moving parts, No phase, Partial phase has been the theme so far, Just a much better time to track then HHH, But i know you like the convective side of weather.

eh I love tracking both. I do love tracking potential snowstorms and snow but it's just not the same as it used to be...mostly b/c I don't get to enjoy it like I used to and don't have the energy to stay up at night and look at models. 

At least for me...when there is a potential event hinging on phasing I am extremely intrigued. When phasing is a huge player, I try not to get obsessed with model run-to-model run or get caught up in details. All I care about is that models continue the theme of a potential phase and that window for phasing opportunity is there. Once inside of 48-72 hours I'll start to really hope to see a consistent theme of phasing. 

But in the event of Sunday/Monday there is alot to really like (in terms of storm potential):

1. Changes within the state of the PNA/NAO (good for East Coast cyclogenesis)

2. Favorable jet structure and dynamics 

3. Abundance of moisture influx 

4. Cold air available 

Now it's just piecing things together. Maybe it doesn't totally work given the time of year but I'll take these key pieces all winter long and go from there. 

 

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