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November 28-29 Storm Threat


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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

My daughter is driving back to Burlington today.  She texted me a pic 5 miles out of WRJ.  Deep winter look with snow otg.

We are down in Hanover watching UVM vs. Dartmouth hockey. I was a little surprised to see the ground white right down to the CT River. 

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Not looking very good. I agree with Chris on the dry air aloft. If all the saturation is below 800mb then it’s tough unless you have like -12C 850 temps and you produce all your dendrites down at that level...we’ve seen that in cold IVT/Norlun events...but we don’t have a profile like that this time. Plus we just don’t have a lot of low level lift....the convergence looks kind of weak. Maybe it will get better but I’d sell anything over some flakes to maybe a coating. Maybe someone on south shore gets a little luckier. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Not looking very good. I agree with Chris on the dry air aloft. If all the saturation is below 800mb then it’s tough unless you have like -12C 850 temps and you produce all your dendrites down at that level...we’ve seen that in cold IVT/Norlun events...but we don’t have a profile like that this time. Plus we just don’t have a lot of low level lift....the convergence looks kind of weak. Maybe it will get better but I’d sell anything over some flakes to maybe a coating. Maybe someone on south shore gets a little luckier. 

Yep. Time to put the NAM in the wood chipper. 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not looking very good. I agree with Chris on the dry air aloft. If all the saturation is below 800mb then it’s tough unless you have like -12C 850 temps and you produce all your dendrites down at that level...we’ve seen that in cold IVT/Norlun events...but we don’t have a profile like that this time. Plus we just don’t have a lot of low level lift....the convergence looks kind of weak. Maybe it will get better but I’d sell anything over some flakes to maybe a coating. Maybe someone on south shore gets a little luckier. 

Wow. You and Box have me on a Rollercoaster ride 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not looking very good. I agree with Chris on the dry air aloft. If all the saturation is below 800mb then it’s tough unless you have like -12C 850 temps and you produce all your dendrites down at that level...we’ve seen that in cold IVT/Norlun events...but we don’t have a profile like that this time. Plus we just don’t have a lot of low level lift....the convergence looks kind of weak. Maybe it will get better but I’d sell anything over some flakes to maybe a coating. Maybe someone on south shore gets a little luckier. 

This hasn't looked good since Thursday night.

Back to long range...

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