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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


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Even more comical is the warmup between 12z Thu and 18z Thu...despite winds going almost due north on a trajectory from dendrite's fanny to ORH....it must think the diurnal heating over interior New England has the same enery per sq meter as Mercury or Venus.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Even more comical is the warmup between 12z Thu and 18z Thu...despite winds going almost due north on a trajectory from dendrite's fanny to ORH....it must think the diurnal heating over interior New England has the same enery per sq meter as Mercury or Venus.

LOL, I'd have to see what the upgrade tweaked. But if that is messed up, boy is that bad. 

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Just now, PhineasC said:

Would rather have it north than south, IMO. North trend is a myth, at last since I moved up here. Smoking cirrus at 20 degrees is a real threat here, but it will still snow here either way probably.

These usually are not a myth, That's why i like it being south right now it probably ends up more amped even in a fast flow, Its 6-9hrs and gone.

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I think I was one of two fans of that model, but it nailed the pre Christmas ice here (2017?)  The Christmas snow in 2017, and then the nasty icing event in January 2019. Will and Ray, this was the storm that started at the GTG in ORH as flurries. It was driving the cold into SE MA when nobody...I mean nobody had it near even 128. 

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Man, eastern MN is setting up for a Younger Dryas blizzard with that -28 C air sitting right there and getting sucked into that circulation like that. 

How about wind gusts to 55 mph, temperature of -15 F, and shattered snow dust down to 20 feet visibility blue dimming

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think I was one of two fans of that model, but it nailed the pre Christmas ice here (2017?)  The Christmas snow in 2017, and then the nasty icing event in January 2019. Will and Ray, this was the storm that started at the GTG in ORH as flurries. It was driving the cold into SE MA when nobody...I mean nobody had it near even 128. 

Yeah I liked it when it was free on weather.us. It's on Maue's site I believe since he collaborated with Joerg.

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20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Man, eastern MN is setting up for a Younger Dryas blizzard with that -28 C air sitting right there and getting sucked into that circulation like that. 

How about wind gusts to 55 mph, temperature of -15 F, and shattered snow dust down to 20 feet visibility blue dimming

The children's blizzard of 1888 in the Great Plains...people were getting knocked on their arses whenever they touched their wood stoves thanks to St. Elmo's Fire.

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8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Those storm vista clown maps should be banned.  They must have a weenie snow ratio algorithm that starts at 15:1.  EPS is a 2-3” mean for most of southern New England a bit less south and east. 

They just updated the snow maps lol

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Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Do they trend north or do they just under estimate the expanse of QPF in the day 3-5 range? 

Will explained it well earlier. Couple of things. One being the nrn stream s/w as we know can be underestimated. So that may trend a bit stronger although not always. The other is the southeast ridge. Guidance seems to underestimate that several days out, and then slowly gets modeled a little stronger on guidance. So if you are really unlucky, you have the combo of that to bring this north a bit with each run. Sometimes it's usually like 70/30 a combo. But it's not a myth, and still seems to occur. Now the flow is progressive, so it is possible this remains sort of sheared out. 

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