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November 2021 Obs.


yotaman
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1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Thursday may see wet snow and sleet mix in as Far East as the Triad 

I've been watching the situation closely. Unfortunately, I think there will be too much dry air and not enough forcing which will prevent the column from saturating/cooling sufficiently.

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I kind of like these raw fall days....................................................................................................when Im home and relaxing in my chair, comfy. 

High for the day 47

Low for the day 44 this morning

.07" in the bucket so far and probably no more rain today here. 

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Clouds hung tight overnight and only dropped to 42. Was hoping for upper 30's at least but looks like we will have to wait for a few more weeks at least. Hopefully we will see our first frost before December unlike last year.

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8 hours ago, eyewall said:

First frost in Raleigh this morning. We would have dropped to the 20s if the clouds didn't hang around.

Clouds cleared just before daybreak here allowing the temp to fall below freezing for the first time this year. Barely below but I’m counting it.  31.3º

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Dropped down to 33* only here. didnt see much frost not that I was looking for it. We finished up with ,.07" yesterday.  Tomorrow and sunday looks to be a great day to sit back and watch college football and nfl sunday. Its going to be raw and damp and chilly weekend

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No more freeze watches this year for the Piedmont and Western NC

 

Widespread freezing temperatures occurred across a large portion of the Piedmont and western Sandhills this morning. As such, no additional Frost/Freeze products will be issued until spring for the counties highlighted in blue in this graphic! #NCwx https://t.co/1icF7PGzyP

 

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 Here it has rained nonstop for over 30 hours with temps in the 40s and gusty NE to N winds. The heaviest just happened between 5 and 6 PM today, which produced street flooding. Storm totals will end up exceeding 3” at the very least in much of the region. Like 24 hours ago, mid to late afternoon temperatures were near the coldest in the lower 48 with only a very few exceptions being barely colder, this time mainly in the NW US. Lake City in FL at 45 at 5 PM was just about the coldest at 5PM at a nonmountainous lower 48 major station! KSAV was then 46 and has since dropped back to 45. KSAV coldest with the rain was 43 this morning, which is their coldest so far this season.

 This is the type of track that once every few decades on average will give this area a very rare major winter storm. The last one was in January of 2018 and the prior one was in 1989. This one would have been a ZR/IP type of setup if it were midwinter and cold enough due to the wedge of cold air that is colder than that at 5K feet/850 mb.

 In summary, this has been and still is quite the memorable storm here due to the rare combination of longevity and various impacts producing quite the anomalous situation. To add, the very slow moving low center to our SE has been strengthening and is likely near 1,000 mb. The very slow movement is what has allowed the steady rain to last so long.

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 Final storm recap:

 My county had a storm total range of 3-5". My location ended up with ~4", which included short periods of moderate to heavy rains returning late last night on the backside after several hours of light or no rain. The last of the rain didn't end til 9 AM this morning. It started around noon on Friday. So, the elapsed time from the start of the storm's rain til the very end was ~45 hours! It wasn't a totally continuous 45 hours of rain but a good 40 or so of the 45 hours had rain. A storm with that much elapsed time of nearly continuous rain is pretty rare.

 I was looking back at records and there was a similar November storm with heavy rains and chilly temperatures due to a similarly far SE tracking low November 15-16 of 2019. 

 

@gtg947h @Awesomesauce81(fellow SAV posters), any totals or thoughts regarding this storm? 

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On 11/7/2021 at 5:24 PM, GaWx said:

 Final storm recap:

 My county had a storm total range of 3-5". My location ended up with ~4", which included short periods of moderate to heavy rains returning late last night on the backside after several hours of light or no rain. The last of the rain didn't end til 9 AM this morning. It started around noon on Friday. So, the elapsed time from the start of the storm's rain til the very end was ~45 hours! It wasn't a totally continuous 45 hours of rain but a good 40 or so of the 45 hours had rain. A storm with that much elapsed time of nearly continuous rain is pretty rare.

 I was looking back at records and there was a similar November storm with heavy rains and chilly temperatures due to a similarly far SE tracking low November 15-16 of 2019. 

 

@gtg947h @Awesomesauce81(fellow SAV posters), any totals or thoughts regarding this storm? 

I use to love those type of days growing up because they were so rare. As an adult who just had to work in that crap I was MISERABLE LOL. The analogs and long term forecasts may say otherwise but maybe a similar low can pop up with artic air in place and we can have some winter fun. 

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2 hours ago, Awesomesauce81 said:

I use to love those type of days growing up because they were so rare. As an adult who just had to work in that crap I was MISERABLE LOL. The analogs and long term forecasts may say otherwise but maybe a similar low can pop up with artic air in place and we can have some winter fun. 


 I’d say there’s a decent shot at another big (for SAV) winter storm here sometime within the next 15-20 years or so based on history. Will it have to wait 15-20+years? Will it come much sooner? You never know!

 

 Looking back in history at historic/major for SAV..say ~2”+ of snow/IP and/or significant ZR (so not near all wintry events…just the biggest ones), I know of these since 1800:

2018, 1989, 1973, 1968, 1922 (ZR), 1914 (ZR/IP), 1899 (blizzard with 2”), 1895, 1851-2 (two 2” snows that winter!), 1837 (2nd biggest), ~1810-15 (I think), 1800 (the biggest one by far). Plus there were a few in the mid to late 1700s. (SAV founded 1733 for those who don’t know). So, again about once every 15-20 years on average.

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