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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!


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13 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Ha! Yup! Your question made me think of another thing about our subforum I am thankful for: We don't have any trolls that "model hug" and post every single model run to fit their agenda of "always cutters and rain" or "non-stop snowstorms." We have such a great group.

It is a great group here. I enjoy popping in. Still hoping to get out there for a big chase this season.

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11 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Looks like conditions will heavily favor the Patriots with their strong run game and physical offensive and defensive lines. Meanwhile the Bills passing game will likely be significantly affected by snow and strong winds and we can’t depend on our run game against their defense to bail us out. Don’t see how these conditions would help in any way what so ever for the way the Bills are built. They need a dome and that is the only way I would support a new stadium being built. 

Agree.  I suppose the hope is Allen's gun can fight the wind for some deep(er) plays here and there and keep us in there for some Allen runs to break it our way.  Allen's running is going to be the deciding factor if the bills will be in this one.  Can't miss a QB sneak 4th and goal this game.  I can't believe how bad our defense has been and the injuries.  

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Just now, cleetussnow said:

Agree.  I suppose the hope is Allen's gun can fight the wind for some deep(er) plays here and there and keep us in there for some Allen runs to break it our way.  Allen's running is going to be the deciding factor if the bills will be in this one.  Can't miss a QB sneak 4th and goal this game.  I can't believe how bad our defense has been and the injuries.  

And I say 'our' as though 'we' are going to be suiting up or standing on the sideline with a clipboard.  lol

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NHCan and ECMWF in relatively strong agreement with a cutter low
tracking from the Upper Mid west on Sunday across the Lower Great
Lakes Sunday night and Monday. This increasingly likely
scenario would result in some widespread rain over our region
that will end as snow showers Monday afternoon. Current guidance
brings the system directly over our forecast area...which would
limit the high wind threat. This track would only take a nudge
to the north and west to change that outcome...so stay tuned.

Lake snows would be possible east of both lakes on Tuesday.
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12 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Looks like conditions will heavily favor the Patriots with their strong run game and physical offensive and defensive lines. Meanwhile the Bills passing game will likely be significantly affected by snow and strong winds and we can’t depend on our run game against their defense to bail us out. Don’t see how these conditions would help in any way what so ever for the way the Bills are built. They need a dome and that is the only way I would support a new stadium being built. 

If the Bills get a dome I'll quit being a fan after more than 40 years.   That has to be one of the lamest things I've seen posted on this site in awhile (no offense to you).  The Buffalo Bills are known as a gritty tough team, we don't need no stinking dome.  Dome's shouldnt be allowed anywhere in this sport.  The whole point is to play in the elements.  

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That last GFS 12z run was Uber close to reeling off 3 straight snow makers…as it is they’re rain for now. As for the dome I agree with you. We the fans look forward to the elements and watching as plenty of southern teams crumble in the conditions!!! Leave it as it is and if I’m too nostalgic keep it it in OP as well. 

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8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

That last GFS 12z run was Uber close to reeling off 3 straight snow makers…as it is they’re rain for now. As for the dome I agree with you. We the fans look forward to the elements and watching as plenty of southern teams crumble in the conditions!!! Leave it as it is and if I’m too nostalgic keep it it in OP as well. 

Yeah I go both ways with this. If I had to choose between winning a superbowl and getting a new stadium without a dome I'd choose winning. 

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14 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

If the Bills get a dome I'll quit being a fan after more than 40 years.   That has to be one of the lamest things I've seen posted on this site in awhile (no offense to you).  The Buffalo Bills are known as a gritty tough team, we don't need no stinking dome.  Dome's shouldnt be allowed anywhere in this sport.  The whole point is to play in the elements.  

I can see your point I really do however the way this team was built (and not really a fault, just the way the whole league is progressing) they like to air the ball out and playing in frequent inclement weather hinders their strengths. To me it’s all about winning a championship as fun as it is to have an Indy snow game, I would rather see them be able to maximize their strengths inside a dome and be able to hoist the Lombardi more than once before Allen’s career is over. That’s not to say he and this team can’t do that playing outside but in my opinion playing in ideal conditions gives them the best chance to win. 

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5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

The WNY bunch might like the long range on the NWS text for next Monday…ok maybe I’ll like it, WNash and Luke Mages…the rest of you are banished to TugHill Matt’s…

Lake snow event for Bills game!?! 100% all about it! This is why cutters aren't the worst thing as wolfie mentioned you can get some good W/SW flow behind them if cold air is there.

A change to a meridional flow this period will bring active weather
to our region.

Sunday an upper level trough will deepen over the western Great
Lakes, while zonal flow over the Northeast amplifies. This trough
will deepen a surface low to our west and north...one that the
operational model runs of the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian are in fairly
good agreement with as far as track and deepening the low. Attached
to this deepening surface low will be a cold front, with convective
showers ahead and along it Sunday Night. The cold front will reach
WNY early Monday morning, sweeping across the region through the
day...with post front steeping lapse rates and mixing level heights
supporting strong winds.

Cold air at 850 hPa deepening -10 to -14C behind the cold front
through Tuesday will set the stage for a lake effect precipitation
response, with accumulating lake snows likely Monday afternoon
through Tuesday. Exact placement is still uncertain at this
point...but could include areas northeast of the Lakes, including
Buffalo and Watertown Monday.

High pressure will briefly near the region Tuesday, with winds and
lake snows diminishing, but another storm system Wednesday could
renew the stronger winds along with areas of rain and snow.
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Just now, Thinksnow18 said:

The WNY bunch might like the long range on the NWS text for next Monday…ok maybe I’ll like it, WNash and Luke Mages…the rest of you are banished to TugHill Matt’s…

Lol...Just, ugh. We get Tennessee summers and Seattle winters now. Just a little less extreme...for now. :P 

Well, I still have some snow piles around town from the lake effect win last week. I see lots of rain, snow, slush, rain, and wind in our near future.

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