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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!


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2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

It’s active. But we need one to catch and it’s tough to catch. It’s a swift flow and we’ll lose our block. 
I think it looks like more of the same- good for the Lake Effect Elevation areas. BS for the rest of us. But at least it bears watching. 

We don't lose our blocking, its still there. Very quick flow though. There is nothing that makes me think we won't get a normal Upstate December so far.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_32.png

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That is a great setup at 192 hours on EPS. Greenland block along with deep through and plenty cold for snow. That is time period to watch for big snowstorm somewhere in the East. The biggest takeaway on this picture is the PV rotating lobes of colder air around as its on our side of the globe. That favors periods of below normal temps every couple days.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_9.png

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

@lakeeffectkid383 taking the under on this map, we're close to the 8-12.

NE_Snow.png

I think this could verify, it runs all the way until Tuesday 7am.  I really like these clippers next few days.  Won’t be anything crazy but chance of a couple inches each of the next three night with maybe some little surprises.  Tonight we need to watch central Erie county for a lake band to setup out ahead and then embedded within the overall synoptic precip.  Could provide a few hours of heavier rates IF it in fact does develop.  Sunday PM still a bit unclear how much lake enchanted precip comes with system #2 but looks to target more south along the Ridge anyways so doesn’t really matter to me.  Monday PM may also be interesting as winds back to SW ahead of a third wave and could bring a band dancing around up near the metro albeit short lived.   

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3k 18z run hints at this narrow band tonight and has it hug the north shore of Lake Erie into BUF metro showing 3-4”.  Raised the eyebrows enough to get a blurb in the 3pm AFD.  Early season clipper with a warmer lake could get us a little overachiever.  Well one can hope, at least we got something to watch tonight.

E0E97D43-CCF6-4364-9D97-1FD6ADDC5ABA.jpeg

871484CA-1726-40CB-A241-6B9D0AD771F1.jpeg

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