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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!


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It's the time of year to get @rochesterdave, @CNY-LES FREAK, and @ayuud11posting again!

After one of the warmest Octobers in recent memory, things look to change quite quickly this week.

Temps will be well below average almost all work week as a trough delivers the first cool air of the season.

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_4.png

 

There is a chance of snow from Tues night into Friday. There should be some action off the lakes all week long. We likely see our first snowflakes across lower elevations and first accumulating snowfall across the higher terrain. NWS mentions thunder possible

A longwave trough will mature over the eastern half of Canada Monday
night through most of the week, with the base of the trough
extending down through the Great Lakes and New England. At the
surface, low pressure will remain parked over northern Quebec Monday
night through Tuesday before moving off into the North Atlantic
Wednesday, maintaining moist cyclonic flow across the Great Lakes. A
series of shortwaves and surface troughs will cross the eastern
Great Lakes, with each one enhancing synoptic scale moisture,
ascent, and convergence.

Lake induced equilibrium levels will rise from 10K feet Monday night
to about 15K feet Tuesday, then rise further to over 20K feet
Tuesday night into Wednesday as the core of coldest air aloft
crosses the eastern Great Lakes. This will support a good chance of
thunder at times in the stronger bands off both lakes.

Following this week it looks like we go back above average into mid month as a Pacific dominant flow comes back once again.

 

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

The revised temp map for November shows an above average month.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_temp.gif

As we look further ahead we look to have a weak/moderate La Nina which should feature an earlier than normal start to winter and a quicker end.

The EPS weeklies

1363174204_14-kmEPS46-DAYSNorthAmerica5-dayAvg500ZAnom.gif.02c602778b97bb3abc08b51196574212.gif

If I had a guess we have a cold first week, warm week 2 into week 3 and we eventually start to cool back down towards end of November into December.

Since we haven't had 3 straight below normal years in a row I'll go slightly above normal snowfall and slightly above average temps for this upcoming winter.

Look forward to this forum getting more active and for us to finally have a real Northeast Winter! So that @TugHillMattdoesn't move away on us.

May the wind direction forever be in your favor. :mapsnow:

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I saw this on another sub-forum, think this is in Alaska. 250" in 2 days. 

Detailed Forecast

Today
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 24. Southeast wind 65 to 70 mph increasing to 75 to 80 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 52 to 58 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 23. East wind 50 to 60 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 110 to 116 inches possible.
Sunday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 25. East wind 40 to 50 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 73 to 79 inches possible
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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I saw this on another sub-forum, think this is in Alaska. 250" in 2 days. 

Detailed Forecast

Today
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 24. Southeast wind 65 to 70 mph increasing to 75 to 80 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 52 to 58 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 23. East wind 50 to 60 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 110 to 116 inches possible.
Sunday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 25. East wind 40 to 50 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 73 to 79 inches possible

I feel the wind may knock down ratios a bit...

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Lake effect snow may accumulate across higher terrain including the
Tug Hill and western Adirondacks Tuesday and Wednesday. The best
chance for accumulating snow is on Tuesday night when there`s a
potential for 3 to 5 inches of accumulation.
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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I saw this on another sub-forum, think this is in Alaska. 250" in 2 days. 

Detailed Forecast

Today
Snow. The snow will be f-ing heavy all times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 24. Southeast wind 65 to 70 mph increasing to 75 to 80 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 52 to 58 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow. The snow will be super f-ing heavy all times. Low around 23. East wind 50 to 60 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 110 to 116 inches possible.
Sunday
Snow. The snow will be f-ing heavy all times. High near 25. East wind 40 to 50 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 73 to 79 inches possible

Fixed the detailed forecast...lol

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7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Here's something to hold you guys over because the pattern on the GFS sucks up until this point lol Dominated by HP, hopefully we get that pattern over with the first two weeks lol

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_60 (2).png

I wonder if early season lows over hudson bay will form due to the temperature differential more frequently with global warming :wub:

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40 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Lock it in. On the 7th anniversary of snovember. 

I will chase from downstate anything like that.  If there is a biggie LE event I have a biggie truck especially for snow!

PS I moved my winter camp to VT instead of Tug Hill/Old Forge area for snowmobiling so I will be more watchful of that forum.  I do plan a trip or 2 to the Daks for some winter camping so I'll keep an eye on you guys up there.  

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24 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I will chase from downstate anything like that.  If there is a biggie LE event I have a biggie truck especially for snow!

PS I moved my winter camp to VT instead of Tug Hill/Old Forge area for snowmobiling so I will be more watchful of that forum.  I do plan a trip or 2 to the Daks for some winter camping so I'll keep an eye on you guys up there.  

Where abouts do you camp in the ADK? I want to do one winter hike this year thinking Sawteeth mountain to bring me to #39. 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Where abouts do you camp in the ADK? I want to do one winter hike this year thinking Sawteeth mountain to bring me to #39. 

I have av RV which i used to set up in Old Forge for the winter as a snowmobile base camp.  I actually winter camp by snowmobile and that would be in moose river plains.  I might go back and try an overnight on Indian lake but its a windy ass lake!  

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