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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!


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13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yeah, we are a bunch of LES weenies here...lol. My previous username on here was "blackrock" and I lived in the Muskegon/Spring Lake area. So I represented that little part of West Michigan. Lake effect snow has been greatly lacking in that area this decade, so maybe some have lost interest. In fact the average snowfall has dropped nearly 20 inches there!

As buffalowx said, you are definitely welcome here, and many would probably enjoy talking with you during future events about how factors up in your area might aide in things down wind here.

I love Gaylord...my wife and I almost moved there, but it "was too far north for her." Hmph. Wives. Lol

Sounds good, didn't want to inundate your forum with Lake Mich/Sup LES if your mainly focused on Erie and Huron but would be happy to add perspective form NWL Mich. Haven't been a huge fan of the direction of the GL Sub so lost a lot of interest. 

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4 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Haven't seen Bo post in quite some time, him and I chatted a bunch in PM in the past but been MIA.

Maybe he ended up finding his place way up in the clouds out west and has no internet? :P I hope he is well.

1 minute ago, josh_4184 said:

Sounds good, didn't want to inundate your forum with Lake Mich/Sup LES if your mainly focused on Erie and Huron but would be happy to add perspective form NWL Mich. Haven't been a huge fan of the direction of the GL Sub so lost a lot of interest. 

Hoosier was such a vital part of the sub and it almost seems like he has been "demoted?" Not sure what happened there. :( Seems like the Iowa/Illinois crew is the most active on there.

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It's looking like a decent convergence band will setup this evening through the overnight period.. Right now I would favor C Oswego county but it will be close.. Obviously this is just precipitation but you need precipitation to see snow (at least mix in) lol Preferably heavy..

sfcwind_mslp.us_ne (37).png

sfcwind_mslp.us_ne (39).png

qpf_acc.us_ne - 2021-11-02T112655.941.png

qpf_acc.us_ne - 2021-11-02T112707.038.png

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24 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Sounds good, didn't want to inundate your forum with Lake Mich/Sup LES if your mainly focused on Erie and Huron but would be happy to add perspective form NWL Mich. Haven't been a huge fan of the direction of the GL Sub so lost a lot of interest. 

Usually when you guys get lake effect we get it later on so its nice to have someone post about whats coming. We have a great group here, no mods and no issues at all. 

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27 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Maybe he ended up finding his place way up in the clouds out west and has no internet? :P I hope he is well.

Hoosier was such a vital part of the sub and it almost seems like he has been "demoted?" Not sure what happened there. :( Seems like the Iowa/Illinois crew is the most active on there.

I know what happened and it wasn't good. I'm in the AMX discord channel with a few posters here. Safe to say he won't be a mod going forward. 

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Usually when you guys get lake effect we get it later on so its nice to have someone post about whats coming. We have a great group here, no mods and no issues at all. 

Sounds good ill chill over here when I do have time to get on. Nice being around other LES members again. 

 

BTW still snowing,, 1-2" per hr at the moment.  Lakes really have come to life the past few hours with the weak trough passing though.  Looks like about 5-6 otg hard to get a good measurement as its melting from underneath. 

 

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51 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Sounds good ill chill over here when I do have time to get on. Nice being around other LES members again. 

 

BTW still snowing,, 1-2" per hr at the moment.  Lakes really have come to life the past few hours with the weak trough passing though.  Looks like about 5-6 otg hard to get a good measurement as its melting from underneath. 

 

We need a video. :snowwindow:

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First snow of the season occurred over the higher terrain of the
Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario earlier today. A couple
inches of slushy snow fell on the Tug Hill. Lake effect, mainly
in the form of rain, continues this afternoon.

Upstream a sfc trough across the Niagara Peninsula will swing
across by early this evening, shifting winds to more
west/northwest and intensifying the lake effect over the
Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. Given H85 temps falling
to -6c this evening and sfc temps dropping back into the 30s,
will not take long for the rain/snow to switch to snow at higher
elevations this evening. Over-water instability very impressive
tonight especially as shortwave over Michigan swings across the
lower Great Lakes. Lake induced CAPES rise to over 1000j/kg and
ELs surge above 20kft on Lake Erie and over 25kft on Lake
Ontario.

Off Lake Erie, flow starts out from northwest off Lake Erie and
remains stationary through the night across the Southern Tier. Given
this, appears this will be more of a Chautauqua county into
Cattaraugus county higher terrain event. Cold enough though that
even lower elevations inland from the Lake Erie shore will see some
accumulation. Snow totals into early Wed should reach at least 3
inches with higher amounts of 5 inches across higher terrain and in
most persistent bands. Some additional snow will occur into Wed
morning as another shortwave drops across with still favorable
instability in place. Given the closer proximity of the shortwave
tonight and steady low-level flow and such high instability think
advisory should work out.

Off Lake Ontario, flow starts off the evening west-southwest then
veers quickly to west-northwest behind the initial sfc trough.
Soundings suggest favorable setup for portions of the Tug Hill much
of the night, before winds become more northwest late tonight in
wake of the shortwave moving through. Farther approach of the
shortwave is a limiting factor as is winds shifting some to start,
but think degree of instability and a period of stronger low-level
convergence, upslope flow into the Tug Hill will make up for this.
Similar amounts as Southern Tier, but with much more of a fetch of
air modified by warmer waters of Lake Ontario, expect the rain/snow
line to be sharp and snow amounts highly dependent on the terrain.
Does appear late tonight into early Wednesday, some snow could occur
at lower elevations of Oswego county at least farther inland from
the Lake Ontario shore. Given this is the first lake effect event of
the season and there is at least small potential to even overachieve
in heavier snow, have put winter weather advisories up for lake
effect snow across Southern Tier and to east of Lake Ontario.
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6 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

It’s just a riot to me how these flip-flop around. Wasn’t it just a week ago that we were all excited for a great November? Lol. Always interesting. 
A good reminder to never take these LR products too seriously. 

Wouldn't worry about that because next 5-10 days is showing seasonable, no torch or anything so we will be fine. Cold weather will settle in about 2 weeks. 

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18 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Even parts of the GTA was able to snag some wet snow/ice pellets with the bands that made it from Huron/GB 

 

Is that weather discord open to anyone or is it invite only?

Its open to everyone but its not too much weather as it is other topics. Lots of politics/sports discussions. A few mods from here are on there.

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