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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!


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There have been many seiches over the past few years that would top the current forecast of 10.1 ft. at Buffalo. The one I remember best was back on December 2, 1985 when the water level rose to 12.1 ft. 

However, by far, the most destructive seiche that occurred in Buffalo's history was back on October 18, 1844 when it was estimated that a wall of water 22 ft. high inundated the city, including many. many boats anchored on the harbor as well as canal boats. Without a good breakwall to stop some of the force of that wall of water, it was estimated that over 70 people were drowned from that event. I can't even imagine a seiche of 22 ft. today!!

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Already received the national grid text lol I lost power on Monday night from 40 mph gusts so the potential for 60-70mph makes me a wee bit nervous on the power front lol I did get a generator this year but it's not currently wired to the house, I could run extensions to it if needed..(Refrigerator, artificial heat etc...)

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3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Honestly just stay under 200 hours on these models and you won't have to worry about this fantasy bullshit.  

I’d say under 72. We’ve seen a lot disappear in 72-144. The GFS and Euro consistently over amp these waves. I’m just shocked there’s no learning curve. No AI? Seriously, AI is used in a lot computer logarithms, these are the big international models. Your phone uses these. They learn the routes you take, your usual hours. How can they not learn that there won’t be a sub 990 storm on the EC every 180 hours? 

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A cold front will enter western NY between 18-21z with significant
cold air advection and pressure rises immediately behind the frontal
passage. A 60-70kt low level jet about 2-3k feet off the surface is
forecast to be in place as the cold front moves through western NY
late afternoon. Channeling up Lake Erie will promote the highest
gusts, from the Lake Erie shoreline into the Niagara Frontier and
Lower Genesee Valley. Gusts up to 70 mph are expected. The low-level
jet is slightly weaker further south which leads to lesser winds
across interior portions of the western Southern Tier. The front
will rush eastward into Saturday evening reaching north central NY
between 23-02z. Locations northeast of Lake Ontario including
Jefferson county and the Saint Lawrence River Valley can see gusts
up to 70 mph. The low -level jet will be just as strong behind the
front across the western Finger Lakes. Gusts 65 to 70 mph are
expected. Another thing to note, a convective line of thunderstorms
is possible along the cold front which may increase the threat for
stronger winds.
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40 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Anyone buying this? 

Not a chance but even knocking 10-15mph off those is still serious business; so we’ve got that going for us…which is nice. 
 

edit - I shouldn’t say not a chance. They aren’t as high as I thought. If we had that noon frontal passage id believe it. 

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8 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Think we are going to smacked tomorrow. Some much wind energy coming

I think so.  Looks like a strong storm line will develop ahead of the main front and may actually bring the strongest winds some time between 3pm-4pm.  Might be a nice shelfie rolling up the lake tomorrow!  Core high winds themselves should roll in just after this and roar for a good two hours thinking 4pm-6pm.  Lake Erie seiche should hit it's peak height between 6pm-7pm.  BUF AFD is mentioning the lake levels could now approach 11 feet.  BW and Delta those times look about right to you?  Going to head down to Furhman Blvd around 2ish tomorrow to scout out and setup.       

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