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Morning thoughts…

Today will partly to mostly sunny but still chilly. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 45°

Newark: 49°

Philadelphia: 49°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 51.1°; 15-Year: 51.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 51.8°; 15-Year: 52.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 52.8°; 15-Year: 53.1°

Tomorrow be milder as clouds increase ahead of the next cold front. There remains a possibility that parts of the region could see a light snowfall Sunday night into Monday.

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7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

but the wind isn't coming off the water, it's all this damn concrete causing fake temps.  It should be torn right out of the ground and we should return the land back to the way it was supposed to be before humans polluted it

 

Warm waters does have some influence no matter the wind direction at the immediate coast. The other 2 times it’s been below freezing here, his part of bk has been a few to several degrees above here

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14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

but the wind isn't coming off the water, it's all this damn concrete causing fake temps.  It should be torn right out of the ground and we should return the land back to the way it was supposed to be before humans polluted it

 

It’s a warmer NW flow off the water today at LGA since the ASOS is right near the water in the NW corner of the airport. Same reason that they are cooler than Newark and sometimes JFK during heatwaves with offshore flow. If you look at the NYC micronet, the temperatures at LGA usually match the other observations in northern Queens. 
 

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Central Park   CLEAR     30  19  63 CALM      30.34R
LaGuardia Arpt CLEAR     33  19  56 NW15G21   30.32R WCI  23
Kennedy Intl   PTCLDY    31  18  58 NW16      30.33R WCI  20
Newark Liberty PTCLDY    32  19  58 NW8       30.33R WCI  25
Teterboro Arpt CLEAR     29  18  63 NW8       30.32R WCI  21
Bronx Lehman C   N/A     32  19  59 N5          N/A  WCI  27
Queens College   N/A     32  19  59 N9          N/A  WCI  24
Breezy Point     N/A     32 N/A N/A NW13        N/A  WCI  22
Brooklyn Coll    N/A     32  19  59 NW12        N/A  WCI  23
Staten Island    N/A     32  21  64 NW8         N/A  WCI  25
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The last 7 days of November are averaging  39degs.(34/43), or -4.

Month to date is  48.3[-0.8].        November should end near  46.1[-1.9].

Reached 42 here yesterday.

Today:  42-45, wind nw. to w., m. sunny.    5" of Snow on the 29th.?      December warmup now consists of multiple sub-32 highs and shows the GFS to be just an 'AssWipe' of a model.      

Compare with just 2 runs ago:

1637733600-TXFFUnkg0s8.png

32*(61%RH) here at 6am.        35* at 9am.       40* at Noon.         45* at 2pm.      Reached 49* around 3:30pm.

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With these endless summer patterns lasting into October, NYC had a much earlier freeze relative to the means than POU did. Places that normally have an October freeze have been very late. But the delayed falls till November have allowed places like NYC to get their freeze closer to the recent averages. So the first freeze dates have been getting later faster in interior portions of the Northeast that used to have earlier fall freezes in the past.

Latest first freezes 2nd latest date at POU and only  19th latest in NYC

Frost/Freeze Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Season Length
1995 - - 11-05 (1995) 32 -
1971 04-24 (1971) 30 11-05 (1971) 30 194
2021 04-06 (2021) 32 11-03 (2021) 29 210
1975 04-22 (1975) 25 10-30 (1975) 31 190
2007 04-21 (2007) 32 10-29 (2007) 27 190
1942 04-14 (1942) 27 10-29 (1942) 32 197
2011 04-22 (2011) 27 10-28 (2011) 28 188
2013 05-14 (2013) 30 10-24 (2013) 31 162
2005 05-13 (2005) 32 10-24 (2005) 31 163
1967 05-13 (1967) 30 10-23 (1967) 28 162
1998 - - 10-22 (1998) 32 -
1955 05-10 (1955) 30 10-22 (1955) 29 164
2014 04-25 (2014) 31 10-20 (2014) 30 177
1990 04-19 (1990) 27 10-20 (1990) 30 183
1973 04-30 (1973) 32 10-19 (1973) 31 171
2018 04-23 (2018) 28 10-18 (2018) 32 177
1948 05-02 (1948) 32 10-18 (1948) 32 168
2017 05-11 (2017) 32 10-17 (2017) 30 158
2015 04-26 (2015) 30 10-17 (2015) 29 173

 

 

 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Season Length
1998 03-23 (1998) 32 12-22 (1998) 22 273
2001 03-28 (2001) 30 12-16 (2001) 32 262
1948 04-04 (1948) 32 12-11 (1948) 31 250
2011 03-29 (2011) 31 12-10 (2011) 32 255
2016 04-10 (2016) 31 12-09 (2016) 29 242
2009 03-24 (2009) 27 12-07 (2009) 32 257
1902 03-20 (1902) 31 12-05 (1902) 24 259
2010 03-27 (2010) 29 12-04 (2010) 32 251
2006 03-22 (2006) 31 12-04 (2006) 31 256
1907 04-03 (1907) 32 12-03 (1907) 30 243
1985 04-10 (1985) 28 12-02 (1985) 30 235
1963 03-23 (1963) 30 12-01 (1963) 29 252
1999 03-16 (1999) 32 11-30 (1999) 28 258
1979 04-08 (1979) 32 11-30 (1979) 29 235
1909 04-11 (1909) 24 11-30 (1909) 31 232
1952 03-18 (1952) 30 11-29 (1952) 28 255
1906 04-03 (1906) 32 11-29 (1906) 29 239
1958 04-09 (1958) 29 11-28 (1958) 32 232
2002 04-07 (2002) 30 11-27 (2002) 27 233
1991 03-31 (1991) 31 11-26 (1991) 31 239
1950 04-14 (1950) 26 11-26 (1950) 28 225
1981 03-21 (1981) 30 11-25 (1981) 31 248
1978 04-03 (1978) 31 11-25 (1978) 32 235
1941 03-31 (1941) 29 11-25 (1941) 31 238
2015 04-01 (2015) 32 11-24 (2015) 32 236
1938 04-07 (1938) 30 11-24 (1938) 21 230
1918 04-12 (1918) 32 11-24 (1918) 30 225
1898 04-07 (1898) 29 11-24 (1898) 32 230
2021 04-03 (2021) 32 11-23 (2021) 32 233

 

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19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s a warmer NW flow off the water today at LGA since the ASOS is right near the water in the NW corner of the airport. Same reason that they are cooler than Newark and sometimes JFK during heatwaves with offshore flow. If you look at the NYC micronet, the temperatures at LGA usually match the other observations in northern Queens. 
 

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Central Park   CLEAR     30  19  63 CALM      30.34R
LaGuardia Arpt CLEAR     33  19  56 NW15G21   30.32R WCI  23
Kennedy Intl   PTCLDY    31  18  58 NW16      30.33R WCI  20
Newark Liberty PTCLDY    32  19  58 NW8       30.33R WCI  25
Teterboro Arpt CLEAR     29  18  63 NW8       30.32R WCI  21
Bronx Lehman C   N/A     32  19  59 N5          N/A  WCI  27
Queens College   N/A     32  19  59 N9          N/A  WCI  24
Breezy Point     N/A     32 N/A N/A NW13        N/A  WCI  22
Brooklyn Coll    N/A     32  19  59 NW12        N/A  WCI  23
Staten Island    N/A     32  21  64 NW8         N/A  WCI  25

What's causing JFK to be warmer than NYC, is it because of Jamaica Bay (although the wind trajectory isn't coming off the bay?)  This isn't a radiational cooling night, with the wind, and JFK is usually colder when there is good radiational cooling.

 

Is this why LGA typically has the latest freeze?  It seems like its lows are always higher than the rest of the region, no matter the time of the year and no matter the wind direction

Weird thing about JFK is with offshore flow during the summer they are usually just as hot as EWR is and hotter than either NYC or LGA, I've always wondered of the buildings to the north and west of JFK actually create a downslope effect lol. I noticed that happens in the winter too, but it's less noticeable because NW winds are cold winds in the winter, but JFK still manages to be  milder than the other official locations.  It's usually a 2-3 degree difference.

 

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