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November Discussion


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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some of the models give Kevin some love tomorrow. Almost reminds me a bit of that March 2019 event that got him good. Tough to say how real it is, but possible.

Looking through some of those forecast soundings around here and...

giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47mi6zl3xv0yxt04lrx7

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some of the models give Kevin some love tomorrow. Almost reminds me a bit of that March 2019 event that got him good. Tough to say how real it is, but possible.

Based on knowing how it works around here. I expect snow showers, maybe a period of steady snow. Ground whitening type stuff. But no more than an inch max .As we cut the Xmas tree, should be a wintry day . After the worst autumn ever, it’ll be much appreciated 

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2021112512_NAM_033_43.69_-70.34_severe_m

Around Portland the NAM is a cold, light rain with the dry slot still flirting with the area. But as the mid levels start to really take off watch what happens.

2021112512_NAM_039_43.71_-70.34_severe_m

The column becomes moist again up through 500 mb, we cool, we lift, and we steepen the lapse rates right in the snow growth zone. That's nearly dry absolutely unstable, let alone moist absolutely unstable.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

2021112512_NAM_033_43.69_-70.34_severe_m

Around Portland the NAM is a cold, light rain with the dry slot still flirting with the area. But as the mid levels start to really take off watch what happens.

2021112512_NAM_039_43.71_-70.34_severe_m

The column becomes moist again up through 500 mb, we cool, we lift, and we steepen the lapse rates right in the snow growth zone. That's nearly dry absolutely unstable, let alone moist absolutely unstable.

Thunder

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs even gives this area some hey how are ya.

Trend has been for that ccb to try and wrap in some steady snow for a few hours even into central and eastern MA. We’ll have to see how it plays out...def hedge lower because of west wind in the boundary layer but can’t rule out a C-1” Friday evening. 

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Just now, PhineasC said:

Watch this become the bigger of the two events. 

Pretty good chance of that up there. You’re going to get warning snows from this event and the Sunday/Monday event may be a little too far south and weak to give those amounts there. 

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Trend has been for that ccb to try and wrap in some steady snow for a few hours even into central and eastern MA. We’ll have to see how it plays out...def hedge lower because of west wind in the boundary layer but can’t rule out a C-1” Friday evening. 

I’ll be happy with some flakes flying around. Keep it reasonable.

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