Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,988
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Dankles
    Newest Member
    Dankles
    Joined

NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022


PhineasC
 Share

Recommended Posts

The BTV NWS has Winter Storm Watches up now for the system affecting the area over the next couple of days.  Both the discussion and the projected snowfall map suggest accumulations topping out in the 12-18” range at elevation in the Northern Greens.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

627 AM EST Thu Nov 25 2021

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

QPF forecasts have remained steady with this cycle, and with that, there`s been little change to the forecast liquid and snow amounts over the forecast area. Amounts between 4" and 10" are expected within the winter storm watch area, with northern summits of the Greens seeing locally higher amounts in the range of 12-18". We will also see snow accumulations across the valley floor, especially if the surface low over southern New England develops quickly. For now, have indicated 0.5" to 3" across most of the lower valleys, though there are a few spots with 4" amounts, particularly north.

25NOV21A.jpg.0b88156ac09046b3e6848f678b28100f.jpg25NOV21B.thumb.jpg.a5937c4610bb557a1a025aa5d96c7bd0.jpg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

There was even a little more to come on that Euro map. But yeah the runs today mostly upped the ante for this event. NAM is still being weird. 6-8 seems like a good bet here with a possible boom to 10 if things pan out. I have seen it snow 2-3 inches of fluff here with nothing much on radar a bunch of times. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Some monster runs for the GFS and EURO.  Euro looks almost like mid-level banding plus upslope.  More of a synoptic look instead of pure upslope.

25C7AB45-50CB-455F-B230-B6C9423E4361.thumb.png.7482916ca48ff5431f61f54967d632ba.png

E4078BB8-C490-4647-A638-69210A7A12DE.thumb.png.83a2513a19e361eced6a520ff7bbf12c.png

I think I’m locked for a foot…planing on driving up sat evening to hit it Sunday.  I’ll get some fake pictures up Sunday of the fake powder.  Happy thanksgiving NNE crew.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Some monster runs for the GFS and EURO.  Euro looks almost like mid-level banding plus upslope.  More of a synoptic look instead of pure upslope.

Well, it seems like monster runs appearing closer to the system is a good way to go.  We’ll see what the BTV NWS has to say in their next AFD.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The BTV NWS has made their update with Winter Storm Warnings along the spine of the Northern Greens as well as Winter Weather Advisories over various sections of the state.  They have adjusted the projected accumulations map to include some 18-24” shading in the Bolton Mountain to Mt. Mansfield, and Jay Peak sections of the spine.  The Mt. Mansfield point forecast is topping out right around 24”, so that’s consistent with the map.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

341 PM EST Thu Nov 25 2021

 .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

As of 340 PM EST Thursday...

 ...Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories in Effect for Portions of the North Country Friday afternoon Through Mid-day Saturday...

 Burying the lead, snow totals will vary widely based on location and  elevation. In the deeper valleys where no headlines are in effect a  generous 1-3" is expected while elevations above 1000 feet outside  of the upslope regions will see 2-6". In the upslope regions 4-8" is  likely up to 1000 feet with 6-10" further up the slope to 2000 feet  with 14-20" likely at the highest elevations of Jay Peak, Mt.  Mansfield and Mt. Ellen. Further south along the spine of the Greens  8-12" is likely near the summits such as Mt. Abraham and Killington.  Lesser amounts are expected in the Adirondacks, but still a good 8-  12" in the high peaks. 

25NOV21C.jpg.71ca0927f07f412f377d8635a9dafc39.jpg25NOV21D.thumb.jpg.8c1497b9f3c14a9c185ed0b6a1f18df0.jpg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

It would be funny if after all of this, @backedgeapproachingends up the jackpot.

I could definitely see it happening too.  The deeper secondary low does leave a more favorable flow down in the S.Greens and keeps it a bit more northerly in the N.Greens.  Lowers the Froude a bit, blocking it up.

79A10D6D-BACD-497B-A09A-38C2FE0AEDE3.thumb.png.a32d571d0a2167704e1c3f3f1a8676d9.png

Models have seemed to ramp it up a bit down here over recent runs..be interesting to see how it plays out. ALY put out a WWA for most of Bennington County looks like.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Models have seemed to ramp it up a bit down here over recent runs..be interesting to see how it plays out. ALY put out a WWA for most of Bennington County looks like.

What's happening is pretty interesting meteorology... the secondary low taking shape off the New England coast that looks to ride the Maine coastline also will have a 850mb and weak 700mb reflection it looks like.  Those features are different from when they were located up near FVE a couple days ago.

That low along the Maine coast will keep winds in the lower 5000ft more northerly up this way, while hitting S/C VT more westerly.  The flow up here I think will be really blocked more and more given that further south low keeping the lower winds more north than west.  I think the precip backs up quite a bit into BTV and today especially looks super blocked by the veering wind in the lowest mile of the atmosphere.

That's how we end up with spreads like this... but it's cool to know the reason is the more southerly tracking low along the Maine coast keeping winds from going uniform with height so it blocks itself up a lot.  It also leads to more precip down your way in S/C VT with the lower Froude numbers blocked hard from getting any precip past like Woodford.

hrdps-vt-total_precip_inch-8068400.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another thing we always talk about but I'm not sure I've ever seen on a model...

@J.Spin's Winooski Valley convergence zone through the mountains.  It's often that precip finishes up and then we get some good squalls to rip right over J.Spin's head down towards Montpelier.

It's wild to see that picked up on a model.  Right over J.Spin's head there stretching towards Montpelier down I-89.

Untitled.jpg.64199f629ecbee726a916f0a4a6d2864.jpg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What's happening is pretty interesting meteorology... the secondary low taking shape off the New England coast that looks to ride the Maine coastline also will have a 850mb and weak 700mb reflection it looks like.  Those features are different from when they were located up near FVE a couple days ago.

That low along the Maine coast will keep winds in the lower 5000ft more northerly up this way, while hitting S/C VT more westerly.  The flow up here I think will be really blocked more and more given that further south low keeping the lower winds more north than west.  I think the precip backs up quite a bit into BTV and today especially looks super blocked by the veering wind in the lowest mile of the atmosphere.

That's how we end up with spreads like this... but it's cool to know the reason is the more southerly tracking low along the Maine coast keeping winds from going uniform with height so it blocks itself up a lot.  It also leads to more precip down your way in S/C VT with the lower Froude numbers blocked hard from getting any precip past like Woodford.

hrdps-vt-total_precip_inch-8068400.png

Good eye PF. 700 does try to close off a bit down there so that could be a max there along with the upslope. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Didn’t expect to wake up to white slush.  Looks like a half inch of slop out there.  Third snowfall of grass blades sticking through.  Hopefully we cover fully by tomorrow morning, ha.

Yeah, I didn’t get to see it fall, but I just happened to check the snowboards before going to bed and saw the accumulation.  I did see a line of echoes on the radar heading off to the east.  The snow was dense (16.0% H2O) and didn’t really change the depth of the snow at the stake because I think it just crushed that drier snow down, but this addition is a bit better in terms of the robustness of the base.  We’ve had a little mist/sprinkles this morning, but just a trace of additional liquid.

 

Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.08” L.E.

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.08 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 6.3

Snow Density: 16.0% H2O

Temperature: 32.5 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...