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October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow


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57 minutes ago, dendrite said:

37.7° this morning. Mitch went below freezing this morning and Gene got close.

28F for MVL ASOS, was a surprising cold night it looks like.  Forecast was mid-30s.  Granted it’s only like 4F below normal min :lol:.

No valley fog at all either.

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3 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

I refuse to rake the leaves till they're all down. Another 2 weeks or so

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

I raked last Friday with 90% leaf drop.  Leaves were dry and loose, easy to rake and easy to carry.  Would be ten times harder after a big rain.

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9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png

Probably a good opportunity to address the Euro amplitude bias  ...for the 3,855th time ... wrt to D8 and EC -orienting cyclone synoptics.

It's so badly ever verifying ... the obviousness of it builds into the observers expectations, such that ( phew!) we'd never have to see these charts get posted.  Lol -

Bustn' ballz a little but ...yeah, that looks like the Euro doing its typical dog-'n'-pony show of applying hyper-curved physical forcing to everything it happens to be handling at that time range. It basically does that at two time intervals:  one is over the relay of D5+  ...The other is anytime after D7+  ... There is coherent sudden increases in the "complexion" and depth artistry of these graphics routinely out of ECMWF's product suite, that seems to just poof! Shows up like some kind of dram-lust magic

It's part of their marketing ploy, I'm convinced...  It only helps their sales/licensing if the model "users" are regaled by a stem-wound bomb on every other model-cycle. They're drug dealers - 

Anyway, I don't know if the EPS does this...but, looking at it - it's no wonder ( either way ) is is significantly more pallid compared to stalling a Category 3 "Hurricaneaster" over Time's Square. 

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32 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

28F for MVL ASOS, was a surprising cold night it looks like.  Forecast was mid-30s.  Granted it’s only like 4F below normal min :lol:.

No valley fog at all either.

Kinda shows the state of things when simply getting back to near normal temps is a super sneak attack surprise and bust for the mets. LOL

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17 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Dryslot won't be very dry.  (And neither would I.)
Current October precip is 1.15"  Only need another 12.94" to match October 2005, my wettest month here.  :lol:

 

If you look closely at the Euro and GFS they both have that 2005 vibe. Multiple waves of heavy precip with a slow moving Noreaster thrown in for good measure . Interesting comparison. I mentioned before I had 14 inches in 8 days in 05

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM and even euro flooding NYC.

Yeah ...

The models have two on-going biases:

They are consummately too strong in their total synoptic emergence' in the mid+ ranges

And when they inevitably bust that way, ironically the system in question still  [somehow or why] rains out 3-fold more than they were modeled to do so. 

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14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

If you look closely at the Euro and GFS they both have that 2005 vibe. Multiple waves of heavy precip with a slow moving Noreaster thrown in for good measure . Interesting comparison. I mentioned before I had 14 inches in 8 days in 05

Not as concentrated here - about 6" the holiday weekend, another 4" a week later then 4" more Oct 23-26.  2005 was Maine's wettest year, set at Acadia.  Also wettest year at CAR, PWM, Farmington.

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I think I'm losing my sense of autumn typology - what's it 'sposed to be like in late October --> November again?   they've been so f'ed up the last decade.  I mean, 4-6" snow'tobers, then 80 two-weeks later in November. But it's not snowing this October - that can't be right!  

Days get shorter with day-light and all, and maybe the air gets gradually cooler at some point - if I just focus on that, and ignore the climate land-mines going off around these reconnoiters toward winter. 

But then what of it... we'll just arrive into yet again, a disappointing shredded atmosphere of sonic speed commercial airline traffic in an overall HC compression gradient that rinse-and-repeat, at best, only weirdly fits whatever ENSO was leading.  Finally, the polar wave # meanders around the boreal hemisphere to gives us our two shots at real storm event that only splits and gives Brian 45" in 9 hours, while the rest of us cryo-dust-storm our way to rationalized glory.

It feels as certain as the portends prior to that Red Sox "forfeit" last night

 

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

I raked last Friday with 90% leaf drop.  Leaves were dry and loose, easy to rake and easy to carry.  Would be ten times harder after a big rain.

Just did my final mowing of the year.  Required frequent emptying of the catcher, but was able to get much of a two-fer  on grass and leaves.  I'll still go through with the blower tomorrow though.

42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

6 z Euro through Wednesday 

index (1).png

The Merritt Canal

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