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2021-22 Winter Discussion


Hoosier
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I have nothing to back this up other than my knowledge of climate, but I have a feeling it is going to be a stormy Winter locally. La Nina is historically a conga line of storms into this region. Last Winter I was envisioning a ton of precipitation, both rain and snow, but yet each Winter month ended up drier than normal. Even February with it's heavy snowfall & deep snow pack saw liquid precipitation slightly below average (owing to both the fact that most of the snow was powdery and also the fact that there was no rain).  In the end season snowfall was right around average to slightly above in spots, yet it was a drier than average Winter (which contradicted literally every model forecast).  Overall there has been a slight increase in precipitation the past few decades, I don't know if we've ever had 2 dry La Nina's in a around, and a wetter pattern has taken hold starting the 2nd half of summer.

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On 10/1/2021 at 6:20 AM, A-L-E-K said:

things always pick up when snow is on the table again

some of us do our best to pick up the slack in the offseason but September can be rough

hoping to avoid a repeat of our recent snowy halloweens 

 

Definitely cold, snowy Octobers and early Novembers haven't bode well for the winter overall here.

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2 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Definitely cold, snowy Octobers and early Novembers haven't bode well for the winter overall here.

When it comes at the end of November....that's a different story.  Some of my favorite winters had that twist.  Late 70's Mid 80's 2005, 2013, 2014

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In Southern Hemisphere news, super strong PV this winter (that is of course transitioning toward summer now):

  • The average temperature at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station between April and September was minus-78 degrees, coldest on record (records since 1957). 4.5 degrees lower than current 30-year average
  • sea ice levels surrounding Antarctica hit 5th highest level on record in August
  • Vostok Station hit -110.9 on Thursday (9/30)

Southern annual mode has no meaningful connection to northern hemisphere that I know of, so no real substance here other than the bottom of the planet just had a super spicy winter. Kind of hope that isn't a foreshadowing of northern hemisphere winter as an ultra strong PV locked up tight at the pole while we have occasional cold rain and mild zonal flow all winter would suck. 

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2 hours ago, luckyweather said:

In Southern Hemisphere news, super strong PV this winter (that is of course transitioning toward summer now):

  • The average temperature at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station between April and September was minus-78 degrees, coldest on record (records since 1957). 4.5 degrees lower than current 30-year average
  • sea ice levels surrounding Antarctica hit 5th highest level on record in August
  • Vostok Station hit -110.9 on Thursday (9/30)

Southern annual mode has no meaningful connection to northern hemisphere that I know of, so no real substance here other than the bottom of the planet just had a super spicy winter. Kind of hope that isn't a foreshadowing of northern hemisphere winter as an ultra strong PV locked up tight at the pole while we have occasional cold rain and mild zonal flow all winter would suck. 

Interesting...

I thought there was some correlation to the Southern Hemi Winter and the Northern.  Maybe it was what south america experienced could be foretelling.  Curious.  

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On 10/4/2021 at 2:54 PM, StormfanaticInd said:

PDO region has really cooled over the past several weeks. **Could** prove to be a negative for this winter. image.thumb.png.bd6419e722e696a99ac7198bfa465c36.png

I've been banking on that signal for the past few years and it hasn't delivered at all.  Was huge during the 13-14 winter but that was it.  

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5 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

 

Tweeted with Judah and he mentioned the Euro Model was on to this as well.  I'd feel better if it was the last half of November though.  Foundation setting stuff for a solid first half of Winter.  Then let it warm up as far as I'm concerned.  

One thing I love about this guy is how he responds to almost all inquiries.  Pretty stand up guy.  

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