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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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11 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

I don't like how "sizzle sizzle" is the new term thrown around on here so loosely....and it's my fault... :lol:

I’ve used that term several times now on this trip out west, especially in Death Valley. Just confirms to my wife how strange I am. :P

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12 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

FWIW (not much lol) JB and the weatherbell team going with -1F anomalies for the winter and 125% of snowfall, eastern great lakes...

Of course the + snowfall....I choose the Matrix...err Sizzle!

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16 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Might be some early morning storms around WNY.  18z runs were tossing around line of storms in morning.  0z HRRR has WNY ripe for some storms 6am-10am ish… See what rest of runs show…

460CADBD-1DCB-4F27-9917-573A783CB39B.png

My flight is supposed to land at 630…could be interesting. 

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3 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Looking at the euro the next 8 days or so are average"ish"-below average..We start to warm up towards mid month..The GFS has been flip flopping between A/B Normal.. What ever warm ups we have are brief on the GFS FWIW..

1) I really appreciate your general model updates and maps that you regularly provide.  
 

2) As ‘cny rider’ pointed out, above average late-Sept into October makes for some very enjoyable fall weather.  

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...WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO...

The areas affected include...
  Lake Ontario from Braddock Bay to Cape Vincent...

At 1257 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a line of showers along a
cold front capable of producing waterspouts and gusty winds up to 30
knots. These showers were located along a line extending from near
Braddock Bay to near Galloo Island, moving east at 25 knots.

Waterspouts are possible on the east half of Lake Ontario this
afternoon as this line of showers moves east. A few showers may also
produce gusty winds up to 30 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Showers can produce waterspouts with little or no advance warning.
Seek safe harbor if a waterspout is spotted.

 

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4 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Looking at the euro the next 8 days or so are average"ish"-below average..We start to warm up towards mid month..The GFS has been flip flopping between A/B Normal.. What ever warm ups we have are brief on the GFS FWIW..

I personally like Above average Septembers. Normally that means lots of upper 70s and lower 80s and lows in the 50s 

About 6 weeks from now is when the actual first snow can be reliably modelled and its not unheard of. 

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9 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

I’m flying out at 6am so I’m in the same boat. Interesting to see if my flight is delayed or not. As of now just some scattered showers and no T-Storms. 

We took a 600 am out this morning to. Southwest to Denver….Weather is gorgeous!Sunny 75 with 18 dp 11 humidity….

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