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September Banter 2021


George BM
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On 9/21/2021 at 8:37 AM, mattie g said:

Sure...it was warm last week, but I think that recency bias plays a big role in how people perceive future weather. I'm not arguing that we're not gaining temps on the margins on average, but I just don't think we can make grandiose statements about how abnormally warm it's been and is going to be based on what are essentially temps within a margin of error (for lack of a better term).

Are you sure about that?

This stat, ( below )  is for nearby NY Central Park,  but other sites up and down the east coast have been warming dramatically.

This is from Donald Sutherland recent post:

New York City's Central Park is on track to record a low temperature of 70° or above today. The mean last date such a temperature has increased 4 days from September 10 (1951-80) to September 14 (1991-20). The interval from the first and last dates has also widened 9 days to 104 days during that time. Most of that widening has occurred during the most recent 30-year period (104 days vs. 96 days for 1981-2010). Overall, September has been warming to the extent that it is now more an extension of summer than gateway into autumn.

 

 

 image.png.a7bdd421e875a4cac45e26548aadbbd1.png

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@frd

My comment about "how abnormally warm it's been and is going to be" isn't related to long-term trends, but rather to actual conditions in the here and now.

Like I said, I'm certainly not arguing against the idea that we're gaining temps on the margins. I just think people are biased in how they perceive forecast near(ish)-term progs based on recent conditions.

One thing on temp increases that would be great to distangle is the effect that UHI (and things like re-paving/re-siting like at BWI) has had on the obs at the reporting stations. Again...I'm no climate change denier (far from it!), but I'd be curious if there were a way to see how much those large-scale increased temp averages at reporting stations are affected by UHI creep, etc. and how that might bias actual overall temp increases.

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

@frd

My comment about "how abnormally warm it's been and is going to be" isn't related to long-term trends, but rather to actual conditions in the here and now.

Like I said, I'm certainly not arguing against the idea that we're gaining temps on the margins. I just think people are biased in how they perceive forecast near(ish)-term progs based on recent conditions.

One thing on temp increases that would be great to distangle is the effect that UHI (and things like re-paving/re-siting like at BWI) has had on the obs at the reporting stations. Again...I'm no climate change denier (far from it!), but I'd be curious if there were a way to see how much those large-scale increased temp averages at reporting stations are affected by UHI creep, etc. and how that might bias actual overall temp increases.

The UHI problem is well-known and accounted for in larger-scale analyses.

This summer wasn't super hot, but it shouldn't have been based on where the ridge set up in the west.  It is actually kind of sad that we didn't end up below normal.  I think the late season humidity also skewed perception of the summer.

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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

The UHI problem is well-known and accounted for in larger-scale analyses.

This summer wasn't super hot, but it shouldn't have been based on where the ridge set up in the west.  It is actually kind of sad that we didn't end up below normal.  I think the late season humidity also skewed perception of the summer.

Dude, it’s like you heard the conversation Watergrandpa and I had yday. Eerie.

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3 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

I think the late season humidity also skewed perception of the summer.

from bluewave. And yes,  the dew points have been off the hook ! 

 

<

Continuation of our new subtropical climate theme. The dew point at JFK reached 70° again today. This was the 64th day so far this year. All the top years for 70° or higher dew points have occurred since 2016.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=70&month=all&year=2021&dpi=100&_fmt=js

#1…..89 days….2018

#2….77 days…..2019

#3….68 days…..2016

#4….64 days…..2021…2020

 

>

6EA49ED3-2D5E-445D-8BFF-28637F348E34.thumb.jpeg.ef41ab81ebc546ec5b3ed9d2959638cf.jpeg

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

I’m not huge on stouts, but Sapwood Cellars in Columbia has an imperial stout called Mole’d. Pretty incredible. I bought two cans and am saving them for a pork taco night sometime this fall. 

I'll be your friend for that pork taco night.  One can for you, one for me.  

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28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m not huge on stouts, but Sapwood Cellars in Columbia has an imperial stout called Mole’d. Pretty incredible. I bought two cans and am saving them for a pork taco night sometime this fall. 

Got two of their Dripped in my fridge. I think their anniversary celebration is this weekend.

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31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m not huge on stouts, but Sapwood Cellars in Columbia has an imperial stout called Mole’d. Pretty incredible. I bought two cans and am saving them for a pork taco night sometime this fall. 

Sapwood is fantastic, and I’m pretty sure they hold a place in the hearts of many a local homebrewer.

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I have a cool idea for forum members to collaborate on an ongoing project.  What if we collectively did a blog on the most memorable events our forum has covered!  Anyone can participate.  The idea would be to write a brief summary for each event and include links to articles and data from the event!  Anyone interested?

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22 hours ago, mattie g said:

Drinking a BCBS (2018) Vanilla right now. Celebrating what feels like the real start of stout season.

Picked up a 4 pack of KBS Espresso yesterday.

Really looking forward the the Utopias barrel-aged WWS, due out next month. Hopefully in a week or 2. I missed the initial release of it last year.

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Have my first swim meet of the winter season with the YMCA today, its a duel meet in Fredrick MD and the YMCA has a new swimming pool. Wondering if anyone from Fedrick has seen the new YMCA swimming pool? Anyways can't wait for the meet today I get to swim 50 Free which is great, 100 Breaststroke which is ok and 100 Fly which is... bad. 

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Ravens will be without 4 starters on the D-line due to COVID, in addition to all the other injuries, against Detroit. They have good depth though, and Detroit is a pretty crappy team right now, so no excuses to not win this game, even on the road. Only sloppy play will prevent a win.

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23 minutes ago, H2O said:

I’m now in that phase of the day when I spent so much time outside doing stuff that everything hurts. 
 

so now it’s all about the advil and adult beverages to make the ache go away

I am right with you. Been at it all day, and just took my third shower. Now relaxing with a beer.

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