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HoarfrostHubb
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4 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Are we on the verge of a 2008 type China induced global recession?

Possible, but a global financial crisis wouldn't be my central thesis. We don't know what the extent of contagion from Evergrande will be. Junk bond yields suggest that it is ongoing among other Chinese developers and financial concerns. Who knows what else lurks off balance sheet? I'd bet there's a lot of malfeasance there. My guess is this will get messier than the folks who expect a quick government takeover think, but eventually the economic gravity of popping the biggest bubble in the world will require drastic intervention and a big devaluation of the yuan, which would be pretty negative for risk assets globally. It doesn't help that several asset classes are priced for perfection, even with the recent selloff. You could have a drop in asset prices disproportionate to the depth of contraction. Frankly, I think it would be healthy. Too many zombies and scams out there operating with impunity. Let's let the tide go out a bit.

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5 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Are we on the verge of a 2008 type China induced global recession?

China likes starting sell offs . First Covid and now ..we’ll this I don’t have a great understanding of but ..looks like it can be contained 

This probably won’t cause contagion but if I was trying to become a super power , I would shake up the global hierarchy And stress test a US led global financial system that needs continuous fed intervention since 2009 and hope my currency would have a better “seat” after a financial reset that is a black swan away 

The western Central banks (closely tied to their governments )  are *desperately doing everything they can do sustain Ultra loose (emergency level monetary policy ) During a period of what looks like decent growth ...it’s an open secret they need to walk this fine line (maintain emergency accommodative policy )  to sustain high asset prices And financial system solvency in the face of a old over indebted monetary system ) .
 

Now they are maintaining this policy despite strong growth and rising inflation ...the financial media won’t spell it out (everyone invested is seeing soaring asset prices as a result ) including 4 federal reserve governors in Luke warm water for investing millions in stocks and setting ultra loose monetary policy that has increased inflation for the working populace and resulted in soaring assets for investor class (Home owners have also benefited) 
 

 

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In all seriousness— this correction was set in motion in June. Markets were extended…there wasn’t a pullback in the late spring- which I had predicted. September is a historically weak month for returns…I saw something like the week after sept option exp is negative 25 outta 29 times or something with the avg drawdown being 94 bps.

what I’m saying is the smart money had been looking for some consolidation for some time, inst. money rebalancing into quarter end…and maybe a little liquidity event in China…that’s how you get here…I see choppiness through this week, and then we’re back on the escalator back up through year end.

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10 hours ago, Supernovice said:

In all seriousness— this correction was set in motion in June. Markets were extended…there wasn’t a pullback in the late spring- which I had predicted. September is a historically weak month for returns…I saw something like the week after sept option exp is negative 25 outta 29 times or something with the avg drawdown being 94 bps.

what I’m saying is the smart money had been looking for some consolidation for some time, inst. money rebalancing into quarter end…and maybe a little liquidity event in China…that’s how you get here…I see choppiness through this week, and then we’re back on the escalator back up through year end.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/09/21/evergrande-debt-crisis-interest-payments-on-bondsimpact-on-investors.html

11% of ALL high yield bonds from Asia are Evergrande’s and they do not look to be paying on them ...I bet most major banks have significant exposure 

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20 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/09/21/evergrande-debt-crisis-interest-payments-on-bondsimpact-on-investors.html

11% of ALL high yield bonds from Asia are Evergrande’s and they do not look to be paying on them ...I bet most major banks have significant exposure 

No disagreement here— one would think someone is about to learn  a hard lesson. I just haven’t seen it in the spreads outside of China CDS. I guess we’ll see. 

greater risk for China is doing nothing…I’m not sure they are keen on dealing with mass protests which will certainly occur if they don’t provide any liquidity or government cash. Seems like we are risk on today at least to start- but volatility works both ways so not unexpected.

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22 minutes ago, Supernovice said:

No disagreement here— one would think someone is about to learn  a hard lesson. I just haven’t seen it in the spreads outside of China CDS. I guess we’ll see. 

greater risk for China is doing nothing…I’m not sure they are keen on dealing with mass protests which will certainly occur if they don’t provide any liquidity or government cash. Seems like we are risk on today at least to start- but volatility works both ways so not unexpected.

Ya , I mean stocks probably keep on rising higher .
 

Apparently Evergrande has been trading at 20 cents on the dollar for months in fixed income markets ..so no big surprise . I don’t know what the Options for terms of their debt restructuring are and wether a situation where they pay their domestic obligations 100% and give a haircut to foreign banks / Foreign funds would be enough to create more downside (or even make sense for them ) but baring that speculation ...things probably just keep pushing higher 

At a time when black rocks Rick  Rider Says fixed income demand has never been higher in his 35 years of working (Helps keep rates low and appetite for high yield high ) and The fed and western central banks have created such Bloated amounts of liquidity they have created one of the most impressive backdrops for rising asset prices that has ever Been seen in financial markets . 
 

it’s been extremely difficult to conjure up a 5% backdrop 

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I wonder how much commercial real estate debt has defaulted in the US since the pandemic?  I see a company like Simon Properties that has almost recovered back to it's pre-pandemic price, and it kind of confuses me, as I thought most malls were suffering going into the pandemic already.  I have to think that private commercial companies that lease office space have lost more leases in the past year and a half than they have gained. 

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1 minute ago, QCD17 said:

I wonder how much commercial real estate debt has defaulted in the US since the pandemic?  I see a company like Simon Properties that has almost recovered back to it's pre-pandemic price, and it kind of confuses me, as I thought most malls were suffering going into the pandemic already.  I have to think that private commercial companies that lease office space have lost more leases in the past year and a half than they have gained. 

I think a lot of property is vacant but being bought up by large institutional investors. I think most people would be shocked to learn how much infrastructure, property, and land is now owned by a handful of fairly shadowy holding companies.

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17 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I think a lot of property is vacant but being bought up by large institutional investors. I think most people would be shocked to learn how much infrastructure, property, and land is now owned by a handful of fairly shadowy holding companies.

There's a lot of purchasing of property right now amongst large institutions as a hedge against increasing inflation. It also helps that rates are still very low. The next populist backlash will include wrath against corporate landlords like Blackrock.

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Heh, ...wait 'till the solar dimming really kicks in now that the Equinox is aft.  That's when the October "set backs" get real historically.

You have an over-valued market by probably some 20% easily.... in a CC crisis begging for a connection to Fossil Fuel cracking the foundation, and a Pandemia that's likely only to get worse while we continue this Darwinian clean up of non-vaccinator ideology...

This year strikes me as a still shining star whose core has already imploded - we're just unaware, in borrowed time, for it takes up to 10 hours for the shock of repulse super nova wave to succeed the surface and burst out it's death vomit.    This autumn might just be an "economic 10 hours".   ...Maybe.   We only needed one bad thing to cross hairs with societal "S.A.D." back in 2008, nefarious credit swaps.   It seems almost an easy prediction when the Globe is saddled with reasons this time.

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[mention=288]HimoorWx[/mention] Great pictures!  Hoping for an England and Ireland trip next year with my wife and child.
Any areas in mind yet? I've done a number of trips to Manchester and the northwest. If you are heading to that area, I am happy to give some suggestions.

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, HimoorWx said:

Was there in 2005. Skye was great, and we loved Edinburgh. If you like Whisky, make sure you hit a distillery or two. Haggis!

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk
 

Pretty sure I won't try the haggis, I'm italian and I used to work at a restaurant that had tripe on the menu, never tried it and never will.

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Eating the dick of an oxen in a NYC restaurant as a kid is still probably the weirdest thing I’ve ever eaten.  I think we had Pigeon then too.  Some restaurant our family went to when I was like 12, and they kept bringing out weirder and weirder stuff to try.

Looking back, not sure I would’ve jumped at it now.  I remember it just tasted like sausage.

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7 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

We plan on going to in a year or two, we've been to England a couple times, want to see Ireland and Scotland, maybe Wales if there's time.

If you go to Scotland, be sure to make a stop in Skye. Cuillin hills area was one of the most beautiful spot I've been to.

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39 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Pretty sure I won't try the haggis, I'm italian and I used to work at a restaurant that had tripe on the menu, never tried it and never will.

Haggis is actually surprisingly good. It's quite rich, but if you don't think about what exactly you're putting in your mouth, it's tasty.

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