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September Discussion Thread: Bring the frost; kill the bugs.


moneypitmike
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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Mid 70s for highs and low 50s for lows are the norms mid-Sept here.  So those numbers would yield +3-4F.  Solidly above normal.

yeah for sure, I guess AN vs. Summer weather are 2 different things for me, summer weather is 80+ and 60+ evenings, but everyone might have their own definition.

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Quite a bit of uncertainty towards the end of the month and the first week of October. Not that this would be totally unusual for this period but I envision sort of a rollercoaster type pattern where we alternate well above-average with near or slightly below-average temperatures (although what will happen is we are either going to be well above-average or somewhat below-average...don't think there is a middle ground). You can see the huge spread quite well just by looking at NAO forecasts alone. There are some hints though we could get some pseudo-blocking. Hell...even uncertainties with what happen across the West...huge spread in the PNA signal too. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Quite a bit of uncertainty towards the end of the month and the first week of October. Not that this would be totally unusual for this period but I envision sort of a rollercoaster type pattern where we alternate well above-average with near or slightly below-average temperatures (although what will happen is we are either going to be well above-average or somewhat below-average...don't think there is a middle ground). You can see the huge spread quite well just by looking at NAO forecasts alone. There are some hints though we could get some pseudo-blocking. Hell...even uncertainties with what happen across the West...huge spread in the PNA signal too. 

Weeklies have showed a torch into October, but we'll see if they show a more muted for late month when they update today because the EPS didn't start showing the trough until a day or two ago, and weeklies last updated on Monday.

My take is we are still in a hemispheric La Nina-ish pattern that favors above avg temps here, but it wouldnt be surprising to sneak a trough in late month...it often happens as the wavelengths are getting wonky and trying to fight the summer gradient. We still have a mean trough over AK and GOA though so I'd think any troughs here would be transient.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies have showed a torch into October, but we'll see if they show a more muted for late month when they update today because the EPS didn't start showing the trough until a day or two ago, and weeklies last updated on Monday.

My take is we are still in a hemispheric La Nina-ish pattern that favors above avg temps here, but it wouldnt be surprising to sneak a trough in late month...it often happens as the wavelengths are getting wonky and trying to fight the summer gradient. We still have a mean trough over AK and GOA though so I'd think any troughs here would be transient.

I agree...I think any sort of troughs we see here would be more transient than sustaining. 

I think though we could be primed for a pattern change moving towards mid-October and that might feature a sustained period of below-average temperatures with active weather. Lots of noise in the medium-to-long range which seems indicative that we are seeing the hemisphere transition from summer to fall (and eventual winter). Noticing though we really may start to see changes with the jet configuration across the western Pacific...lots of wave breaking being modeled and momentum deposit into the high latitudes. Another thing to watch too are the signals for these tropical waves of the Southeast U.S. coast when become pretty strong and get shot north. 

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

We were told back was broken 2 weeks ago, yet here we stand mid-month and in the same boat.

Not understanding broke back^^ Just take a look at the vegetation, birds, length of day. BDL -.2  this month. We had 7 BN days to start the first 10 days. Anyone who thinks back broken means a quick switch to fall just doesn't get it.

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6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

We were told back was broken 2 weeks ago, yet here we stand mid-month and in the same boat.

No way.  We’ve had a definite step down from days and days of mid/upper 80s and 70 dews.

Definitely not in the same place as 2-3 weeks ago.  Not to say one day doesn’t get there but it’s a big difference from August.

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