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September Discussion Thread: Bring the frost; kill the bugs.


moneypitmike
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3 hours ago, Whineminster said:

I went last weekend up at Stinson Lake in NH actually.  I mean you're kinda proving my point of closing pools too early, because you're like swimming every day bro.  Don't you look out at your warm pool on nice days like today and get a little sad? 

My pool is too chilly for my tastes right now.  Lows in the 40s and 50s are killing it.  Plus the sun angle is a bit lower so less hours of good sun on it. 

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3 hours ago, weathafella said:

5+ AN.  For winter probably 10+.    So by now upper 70s and higher.   People freaking out by lingering summer.   This is a common occurrence!   If it’s in the 80s thanksgiving I’ll worry more but  honestly this weather means nothing regarding winter.

Just IMO, but I'd up the thresholds a bit, to +10 and +15, though north/inland tends to have more variability than less north/inland.  Average max at summer's height here is 76 and when it gets to 85+ it's torchy, though the less common 80/70 is plenty uncomfortable.  Average max at depth of winter is 25, and I can't think "torch" with temps in the 30s.

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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Some know some don't 

But Hubb's pool sits amongst a forest of king pines and large oaks at 1,100 feet where it's actually ACATT, you know? I'm just saying if I was your neighbor I'd be sad I couldn't slip into your pool late night.  Other posters in your locale said they'll be using the pool until Oct.

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34 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

But Hubb's pool sits amongst a forest of king pines and large oaks at 1,100 feet where it's actually ACATT, you know? I'm just saying if I was your neighbor I'd be sad I couldn't slip into your pool late night.  Other posters in your locale said they'll be using the pool until Oct.

Who? Lol my pool is 65, come over and take a dip. I am in a forest of trees on a hillside. The sun is on the pool about 3 hrs a day this time of year. I  mean ave temp this month is 65. I know math is hard for you but even you can do that easy equation. FYI my 2 neighbors with pools have closed them as well. Try again homeboy

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31 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

But Hubb's pool sits amongst a forest of king pines and large oaks at 1,100 feet where it's actually ACATT, you know? I'm just saying if I was your neighbor I'd be sad I couldn't slip into your pool late night.  Other posters in your locale said they'll be using the pool until Oct.

I refuse to use the propane heater, costs so freaking much for a few hours of enjoyment....the solar cover however has bumped the temp to 77° as of this afternoon, should be good to use for a couple of days, might even be good until the end of the month if temps in the 70/80 range with lows in the 60s continue

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3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I refuse to use the propane heater, costs so freaking much for a few hours of enjoyment....the solar cover however has bumped the temp to 77° as of this afternoon, should be good to use for a couple of days, might even be good until the end of the month if temps in the 70/80 range with lows in the 60s continue

Solar cover doesn't do anything for me. Too little sun time. Not worth the investment or time spent putting on and off. You have a very open yard which is perfect. I spend my water time at the lake or beach. Kevin and Whinebutt are obsessed with my pool. Odds are I have spent more time in the water in September than they did all summer 

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Solar cover doesn't do anything for me. Too little sun time. Not worth the investment or time spent putting on and off. You have a very open yard which is perfect. I spend my water time at the lake or beach. Kevin and Whinebutt are obsessed with my pool. Odds are I have spent more time in the water in September than they did all summer 

I have to LOL at this, this is what I tell my kids who whine that the pool is too cold at 75 degrees....I am only 38, but spent most of my life at the beach, swimming in Delaware waters of less than 70 for the most part...I prefer 80 plus at this point if I am lounging in a pool. Although I remember riding waves at 60ish degrees, no wetsuit, chattering, blue lips at the age of 10

I am lucky with the sun, solar cover works well here, but for most of CT not so much....

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1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

I have to LOL at this, this is what I tell my kids who whine that the pool is too cold at 75 degrees....I am only 38, but spent most of my life at the beach, swimming in Delaware waters of less than 70 for the most part...I prefer 80 plus at this point if I am lounging in a pool. Although I remember riding waves at 60ish degrees, no wetsuit, chattering, blue lips at the age of 10

Growing up on the ocean I can relate. Blue lip surfing and swimming was the norm

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The first week looks pretty good.  Shocking a model Day 7-14 prog was off.

BDL and ORH both below normal to date, now a warm period coming.  Looks like the EURO from a week ago had warmth around the 15th but was a bit too muted.

I still don’t get what you guys are trying to prove with the attack on model data.

 

That’s not the point. Those charts are posted as gospel. A lot of us know to add on 5-8 degrees to them as a general rule .. but it folks that don’t know their bias .. which is ACATT.. it can be very misleading 

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27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Who? Lol my pool is 65, come over and take a dip. I am in a forest of trees on a hillside. The sun is on the pool about 3 hrs a day this time of year. I  mean ave temp this month is 65. I know math is hard for you but even you can do that easy equation. FYI my 2 neighbors with pools have closed them as well. Try again homeboy

How do you know? It’s drained and covered. So you do not have a pool temp . Come on now . Are you measuring the foot bath water temp? 

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53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How do you know? It’s drained and covered. So you do not have a pool temp . Come on now . Are you measuring the foot bath water temp? 

Dumbest post ever. Lol the t stat is attached to a string tied to the pool. All I have to do is lift  the cover.  Same thing as adding winterizer in November. Geezuz drained, lol wut

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

 

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s not the point. Those charts are posted as gospel. A lot of us know to add on 5-8 degrees to them as a general rule .. but it folks that don’t know their bias .. which is ACATT.. it can be very misleading 

You are the only fool who takes model guidance as gospel not guidance. Unreal how after 20 years on the board you still capture WOTY votes

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s not the point. Those charts are posted as gospel. A lot of us know to add on 5-8 degrees to them as a general rule .. but it folks that don’t know their bias .. which is ACATT.. it can be very misleading 

If you added 5 to 8 degrees you definitely would not have averaged below the charts ave through Sept 12th. Math is hard. You haven't hit 80 just as the charts said. You can spout off all you want but facts are facts.

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31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s not the point. Those charts are posted as gospel. A lot of us know to add on 5-8 degrees to them as a general rule .. but it folks that don’t know their bias .. which is ACATT.. it can be very misleading 

I find that hard to believe given it’s literal model data.  It’s the Euro ensembles… it’s not even like the GFS OP.  It’s not some cold algorithm so must be a reason the ensembles are missing by that much.  That sounds like a concern for the developers.

I wish we could actually run a verification but we’ll never know just guessing at it.

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15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

You are the only fool who takes model guidance as gospel not guidance. Unreal how after 20 years on the board you still capture WOTY votes

You have called me every name in the book today. Dumb, fool, idiot .. 

 

God forbid someone offers up a different viewpoint or alternative ideas. Just total DT esque. Enjoy the evening 

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33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You have called me every name in the book today. Dumb, fool, idiot .. 

 

God forbid someone offers up a different viewpoint or alternative ideas. Just total DT esque. Enjoy the evening 

Called for. Lighten up Francesca. Stop spinning what I say and we will be good. Also deleting posts after a bust is weak

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26 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I could definitely see long range model data being too cold as a climo baseline… all year round.  So I could see the charts showing model data that those models run cold especially week two.  

Absolutely,  guidance not gospel but nailed Ktoll through 9/13

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Columbus Day weekend 2011 was basically 4th of July. 

Actually, I rode my bike to meet a friend for dinner on Columbus Day evening  in 1995.  Temperatures were in the 80s that day.  It flipped about 2-3 weeks later.

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41 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I could definitely see long range model data being too cold as a climo baseline… all year round.  So I could see the charts showing model data that those models run cold especially week two.  

I don’t think they’d run anywhere close to 5F too cold year-round. They’d fix that pretty fast. The Euro ensembles used to have a slight warm bias actually (we’ve seen it in the summer a lot with the massive heat domes that don’t materialize) but I’m not sure on the official numbers now. 

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