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Flash flood potential 2PM Fri Aug 27-2PM Sat Aug 28


wdrag
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Since PHI issued their FF Watch yesterday afternoon,  guidance is still vulnerable to 2" one hours rains, have opened a thread for commented event info.  My thinking is heaviest will occur in the interior of NJ; but NYC nor sw CT, extreme se NYS are not out of the potential.  My guess is that if the region north of I78 is to FF, it will probably have occurred by 9AM Saturday with two possible bands, one late this afternoon-eve, and another near dawn Saturday.  How much of this heavy convection drifts over into NYC is questionable but t's not impossible to see 1-2" in parts of the 5 boroughs. Maybe the most favored areas are near I78 and possibly the hilly areas of far northern NJ.  In any case, convection could impact the evening commute and wet microburst severe wind is not out of the question late today. 

Screen Shot 2021-08-27 at 5.32.24 AM.png

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Flood Watch
National Weather Service New York NY
1151 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

NYZ069-071>075-176-178-280500-
/O.EXA.KOKX.FF.A.0007.210827T1800Z-210829T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Rockland-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-
Southern Queens-
1151 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Upton has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of southeast New York,
  including the following areas, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New
  York (Manhattan), Northern Queens, Richmond (Staten Island),
  Rockland, Southern Queens, and Southern Westchester.

* Through late Saturday night

* A moist environment could result in heavy rain producing
  thunderstorms this afternoon into Saturday night. With recent
  heavy rainfall, it will not take much additional rain to result
  in flash flooding. The greatest risk looks to be this afternoon
  through Saturday afternoon.

* Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour could result in flash
  flooding, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas such
  as highway underpasses.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&
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The HREF has been doing a great job this summer with the heavy rainfall and flash flooding signals. But the locations of the heaviest amounts have been off at times. So we may have to wait until nowcast time to know which areas will see the highest totals with this next event.

276F5984-7758-48DB-A5C7-1F141630FA80.thumb.jpeg.3ab9387f13691fbe80ac7e9022dc20d2.jpeg

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

Of course...rainfall can vary greatly. Everyone with an interest should have a raingage if space is available.

I got my digital one set up just in time for October 2005.....unfortunately they are hard to maintain and always seem to break down on me :( I should go back to the old fashioned glass cylinder one I used to have.  That one was either stolen or accidentally dumped into the trash lol.

 

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31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I got my digital one set up just in time for October 2005.....unfortunately they are hard to maintain and always seem to break down on me :( I should go back to the old fashioned glass cylinder one I used to have.  That one was either stolen or accidentally dumped into the trash lol.

 

 

41386674-C4FC-4C58-854F-F2975F711A74.jpeg

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