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September 2021


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1 hour ago, acoolerclimate said:

I did a double take when I saw the Palm Trees here in Rhode Island. Very close to me, but I think it's the town of Lincoln. It looked so odd!! 

I see restaurants on Long Island with palm trees. I believe they die in the winter unless you bring them inside. People want the Florida look up north during the summer months.

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52 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if the 73° minimum at Islip holds as it would be a new record high for so late in September.

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         81   1213 PM  88    1970  72      9       80       
                                      1980                           
  MINIMUM         73    631 AM  40    1976  56     17       47       
  AVERAGE         77                        64     13       64     

 
 

9/23 71 in 1970 70 in 2019 67 in 2011+
9/24 69 in 1970 67 in 2011 67 in 2001+
9/25 72 in 1970 67 in 2011 66 in 2010
9/26 70 in 2018 69 in 1970 68 in 2005
9/27 69 in 2007 68 in 2017 68 in 1998
9/28 70 in 2010 68 in 2011 67 in 2020
9/29 68 in 1979 68 in 1967 66 in 2020+
9/30 70 in 2010 67 in 1986 62 in 1979

Low of 73 here too. 77/72 now

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11 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

It is difficult for a variety of reasons (not to mention a very bad idea). It is very difficult to target just a single type of insect. No matter how we do it, there are often non-target species that die off. In Florida they have released GMO mosquitos that will hopefully reduce the population. But more on the ecology side, we don’t want to make mosquitoes extinct. The larval stage feeds tons of amphibians and fish. They are quite beneficial to aquatic systems. We could work to control the larvae stage through fish, etc and many areas do this. You can stock a small pond with fish that will consume abundant larvae. The adult stage as well fed a variety of organisms. While we hate them, and believe me, I get bit aa ton, they are beneficial. Once disease starts spreading though, you Weill see health departments start spraying. NJ actually has one of the best mosquito programs in the country. 

Female mosquitoes and female horse flies are a real pestilence because of being such blood suckers.  I wish there was a way to alter them genetically to prevent them from being able to do that and then combine that with the breeding population.  The GM program in Florida sounds interesting, I want to see how that works- they're certainly worse down there than pretty much anywhere else in the country.

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

is 73 the SST?

 

Looks like 72-74 based on hourly observation report around the area


 

STATION/POSITION TIME  SKY/WX   TEMP    WIND        PRES    VSBY  WAVE
                                AIR SEA DIR/SP/G                  HT/PER
                 (UTC)          (F)     (DEG/KT/KT) (MB)    (MI)  (FT/S)
NY Harb Entrance 2250               73  140/ 21/ 25 1011.9          7/ 7
20 S Fire Island 2250               72              1013.3          7/ 7
Great South Bay  2215            75 78  130/ 14/ 19   N/A
23 SSW Montauk P 2250            74 72  130/ 16/ 19 1016.2          6/ 7
15 E Barnegat Li 2256               73                N/A           7/ 8
Hudson Canyon    2250            76 74  140/ 16/ 17 1014.9          7/ 8
Kings Point      2230            77     190/ 18/ 23 1013.8
Execution Rocks  2245            78     150/ 16/ 17   N/A
Western LI Sound 2145            77     150/ 19/ 25   N/A
Central LI Sound NOT AVBL
Robbins Reef     2230            70     210/  7/ 12 1013.0

 

 

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Ahead of an advancing front, the temperature soared into the lower 80s in much of the region. However, for a record 2nd consecutive day, the temperature at New York City's Central Park failed to reach 80° when all of the following cities reached 80° or above: Bridgeport, Islip, New Haven, New York City-JFK, and New York City-LGA.

Through 8 pm rainfall totals included:

Allentown: 1.76"
Atlantic city: 0.74"
Baltimore: 0.69"
Binghamton: 1.29" (old record: 1.24", 2003)
Harrisburg: 1.33"
Mount Pocono, PA: 2.49"
New York City-NYC: 0.94"
Newark: 0.52"
Philadelphia: 1.45"
Scranton: 1.39"
Washington, DC: 1.30"

Additional rainfall is likely overnight into the first part of tomorrow. Behind the front, the sun will return tomorrow and readings will reach the lower 70s.

The MJO had recently been locked in Phase 3 at a high amplitude, frequently in excess of 1.500. Only 2006 and 2009 saw the MJO in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 2 or more days during September 10-20. Both years saw September end with a cold shot that continued into the first days of October. Both days saw Central Park's temperature fall to 49° on September 30. A fairly sharp rebound in temperatures followed. October wound up wetter than normal with 7.07" rainfall in 2006 and 5.58" of rainfall in 2009. Normal rainfall (1991-2020) is 4.38".

Despite the guidance of a few days ago and a likely cold shot to end the month, 2021 is still on course to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Considering that the close of September is still more than 10 days out, the guidance can still reverse. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around September 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was -10.22 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.040 today.

On September 21 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.554 (RMM). The September 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.530 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.6° (1.4° above normal).

 

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However, for a record 2nd consecutive day, the temperature at New York City's Central Park failed to reach 80° when all of the following cities reached 80° or above: Bridgeport, Islip, New Haven, New York City-JFK, and New YorkCity-LGA.”

 

All those stations are east. Hearing reports of sun to the east.

I live along the Hudson in line with CPK and we didnt have a drop of sun all day.

Also never hit 80

 

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24 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

However, for a record 2nd consecutive day, the temperature at New York City's Central Park failed to reach 80° when all of the following cities reached 80° or above: Bridgeport, Islip, New Haven, New York City-JFK, and New YorkCity-LGA.”

 

All those stations are east. Hearing reports of sun to the east.

I live along the Hudson in line with CPK and we didnt have a drop of sun all day.

Also never hit 80

 

Newark hit 82, Teterboro hit 86, Somerville 81...

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26 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

However, for a record 2nd consecutive day, the temperature at New York City's Central Park failed to reach 80° when all of the following cities reached 80° or above: Bridgeport, Islip, New Haven, New York City-JFK, and New YorkCity-LGA.”

 

All those stations are east. Hearing reports of sun to the east.

I live along the Hudson in line with CPK and we didnt have a drop of sun all day.

Also never hit 80

 

Newark also hit 80 both days.

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3 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I meant 55 in December and muggy like he was talking about that one Christmas. It was gross. 

I woke up in the middle of the night and it felt like a sauna.....

and this was in the Poconos!  We had severe storms overnight with temps near 70 during the day and those storms at night.  Actually it was still in the upper 60s at night when those storms came through

 

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16 hours ago, Jeff Grann said:

I lived on Sanibel for 3 years. Worked with boat captains and Meteorologists. Being from NY I was fascinated by the different weather down there. It was made clear to me that Florida had a Subtropical climate from just below the Tampa Bay area . North of there was not due to the  continental influence on the weather. I saw the difference especially in overnight lows . As far as the 70's, I still have the Time Magazine that was devoted to ”The next ice age cometh"?. It was very clear how NOAA and the scientific community we're leaning back then.

Interesting that you think your personal anecdotes can substitute for facts. There exists a ton of information on both subjects if you care to educate yourself. Or alternatively, and more likely, you're a republican. Unfortunate. 

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15 hours ago, Jeff Grann said:

Pure tropical climates are those in the Caribbean where temps are stable all year round 80- 90 by day/ 70-80 at night. So basically people here are broad brushing subtropical to the point that you are equating our yearly climate to South Florida which is absurd. You want to say we are experiencing stretches of S FL humidity...Have at it. But they don't get a cold frontal passage from mid June till October. Not 1 cool, dry day the entire Summer

Tropical ≠ Subtropical 

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A sharp negative tilt trough out of the Great Lakes this Saturday the 24th, may place NYC on the western fringe of what could be a sizable rainfall for eastern LI, especially Montauk???

Thereafter, there are possibilities NYC will be on the northern or northwest fringe of a complex mid Atlantic coast-western Atlantic low pressure system that may yet ingest a bit of SAM RH, or at the least have it's overall Western Atlantic flow altered in such a way that LI-NYC is in the mid level deformation zone yielding qpf here of .05 to .75" next Wednesday-the 29th through Saturday October 2. Timing and northwest extent of the showery rains all uncertain but not a zero chance.  Modeling of this is going may be very sensitive to overall western Atlantic response to SAM.  I just don't know but worthy of monitoring. 

AND, as a final observation of modeling: 00z/24 guidance has virtually all members showing SAM not posing a direct threat to the northeast USA, except for 2 tor 3 members.  Will monitor future modeling trends. 

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Unsure about EWR Sept record.  Not starting SAM related thread, as yet...  wait a couple of days to see if indeed there is a more direct interaction with the mid-Atlantic coast low pressure system. What I see on some 6AM weathercasts are tooo optimistically dry forecasts tomorrow and middle-end of next week for NYC-LI-NJ. 

I hope Bluewave and Don have some stats to share on Sept and will recheck late today. 

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