September 2021

[Jeff Grann]

7 hours ago, eduggs said:

I don't believe you are correct about the "Subtropics." Your statement about "scientific" predictions during the 1970s is pretty broad-brush and misleading too. 

I lived on Sanibel for 3 years. Worked with boat captains and Meteorologists. Being from NY I was fascinated by the different weather down there. It was made clear to me that Florida had a Subtropical climate from just below the Tampa Bay area . North of there was not due to the  continental influence on the weather. I saw the difference especially in overnight lows . As far as the 70's, I still have the Time Magazine that was devoted to ”The next ice age cometh"?. It was very clear how NOAA and the scientific community we're leaning back then.

[CIK62]

The last 8 days of September are averaging 71degs.(64/78), or +5.

Month to date is  72.0[+1.3].         September could end near  71.7[+2.5].

73*(97%RH) here at 6am, overcast.       75*(92%(RH) at 9am.          77*(87%RH) at Noon.        Reached 78* at 2pm.        Rain got here about 6pm.

Reached 79 here yesterday.

Today.  75-78, 1" to 2", s. wind to e. + gusty.

[Jeff Grann]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

California is running out of water and the "record" crop yields are being destroyed, ask any farmer in the midwest, they are leaving the industry in droves.

 

Doesn't change the fact that with the longer growing season the planet is experiencing record high food production. And as far as where you live there are still months of bare trees and frozen ground  incapable of anything growing. That is not subtropical no matter how you spin it

[Jeff Grann]

8 hours ago, eduggs said:

I don't believe you are correct about the "Subtropics."

Pure tropical climates are those in the Caribbean where temps are stable all year round 80- 90 by day/ 70-80 at night. So basically people here are broad brushing subtropical to the point that you are equating our yearly climate to South Florida which is absurd. You want to say we are experiencing stretches of S FL humidity...Have at it. But they don't get a cold frontal passage from mid June till October. Not 1 cool, dry day the entire Summer

[SACRUS]

9/22 (highs)

9/22

PHL: 84
New Brnswck: 84
EWR: 83
LGA: 83
TTN: 83
TEB: 82
ACY: 81
BLM: 80
JFK: 80
ISP: 80
NYC: 79
 

 

[BxEngine]

Nobody is broadbrushing anything. These are actual definitions. Thats it. 

[SACRUS]

 

Humid and front coming through today and into tomorrow making way for a third spectacular weekend and into early next week.  Next cold front comes through next week Wed 9/29.  By later next week eyes on what will be Hurricane Sam and the western Atlantic ridge building back and backing and bogging flow/traffic.  So we will likely see a progession

9/23-24  front rain

9/25 - 9/27: dry and splendid (mainy mid - upper 70s)

9/28 - 9/30 : front / bit cooler

10/1 - beyond: onshore / humid warm flow as Western Atl Ridge builds back west.

 

(what will likely be) Sam : around the southeast coast 9/30- 10/5(ish)

[JustinRP37]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

why is it so difficult to exterminate mosquitoes and drive them into extinction?  We find it so easy to drive desirable species to extinction why can't we actually make species we dont want to go extinct?

 

It is difficult for a variety of reasons (not to mention a very bad idea). It is very difficult to target just a single type of insect. No matter how we do it, there are often non-target species that die off. In Florida they have released GMO mosquitos that will hopefully reduce the population. But more on the ecology side, we don’t want to make mosquitoes extinct. The larval stage feeds tons of amphibians and fish. They are quite beneficial to aquatic systems. We could work to control the larvae stage through fish, etc and many areas do this. You can stock a small pond with fish that will consume abundant larvae. The adult stage as well fed a variety of organisms. While we hate them, and believe me, I get bit aa ton, they are beneficial. Once disease starts spreading though, you Weill see health departments start spraying. NJ actually has one of the best mosquito programs in the country. 

[JustinRP37]

9 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

are there any mosquito diseases that cause a sudden onset of frequent heart palpitations, asking for a friend

its possible my rock and roll lifestyle is about to kill me but it would be a lot funnier if my habit of taking long nature walks is why i die in my sleep next week

That doesn’t sound good! Heart palpitations can be stress induced, but there is also Lyme carditis (https://www.cdc.gov/lyme/treatment/lymecarditis.html) to be on the look out for. Ticks are definitely responsible for more disease in our latitude than mosquitoes. It could also be that rock and roll lifestyle haha. But getting outside is still one of the healthiest things we can do. 

[FPizz]

11 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

They have been spotted there but no infestation yet 

https://nysipm.cornell.edu/environment/invasive-species-exotic-pests/spotted-lanternfly/

Give it 2 years...we went from only a few here 2 years ago to that being the most common bug I see.

[MJO812]

[bluewave]

Endless summer pattern continues with another top 10 warmest month around the area through the 22nd.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 22	Missing Count
1	1961-09-22	76.2	0
2	2005-09-22	75.9	0
3	2015-09-22	74.9	0
4	2016-09-22	74.5	0
-	1983-09-22	74.5	0
5	1971-09-22	74.2	0
6	2021-09-22	74.0	0
7	1980-09-22	73.8	0
8	2018-09-22	73.6	0
9	1989-09-22	73.5	0
-	1957-09-22	73.5	0
10	1947-09-22	73.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 22	Missing Count
1	2015-09-22	72.3	0
2	2005-09-22	72.2	0
3	2018-09-22	71.8	0
-	1980-09-22	71.8	0
4	1983-09-22	71.5	0
5	2016-09-22	71.4	0
6	2021-09-22	70.9	0
7	1998-09-22	70.4	0
8	1971-09-22	70.3	0
9	2008-09-22	68.9	0
10	1996-09-22	68.8	0

[SACRUS]

Dewpoint to 70 on strong SSE wind and some clearing ahead of the heavy rains later this moring/afternoon.

 

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

 

[Jeff Grann]

42 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Nobody is broadbrushing anything. These are actual definitions. Thats it. 

No. I gave you the dictionary definition of subtropical. We are not a region adjacent to the tropics. Unless you refine 1200 miles as adjacent.

[Jeff Grann]

Just now, Jeff Grann said:

No. I gave you the dictionary definition of subtropical. We are not a region adjacent to the tropics. Unless you refine 1200 miles as adjacent.

I'll just redefine the shoreline of the East Coast a desert. What the hell. ..The beaches are full of sand. There is nothing tropical, subtropical of any sort when you take our yearly average high/low temperature as the standard for our climate

[bluewave]

This area is now at the northern edge of the cfa humid subtropical climate zone. It has been shifting north with each 10 year update.  This climate zone covers a large portion of the Eastern US. 

 

 

 

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, Jeff Grann said:

I'll just redefine the shoreline of the East Coast a desert. What the hell. ..The beaches are full of sand. There is nothing tropical, subtropical of any sort when you take our yearly average high/low temperature as the standard for our climate

people think of the word "tropical" as palm trees and sand.    Doesn't really mean that when you're talking about climate.  

[Jeff Grann]

1 minute ago, Jeff Grann said:

I'll just redefine the shoreline of the East Coast a desert. What the hell. ..The beaches are full of sand. There is nothing tropical, subtropical of any sort when you take our yearly average high/low temperature as the standard for our climate

Tropical:

San Juan PR. Every month averages between 83-88/ 73-78

Sub Tropical: Ft.Myers

72-90/ 57-77

New York City

39-85/ 26-69

 

 

 

 

 

[Jeff Grann]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This area is now at the northern edge of the cfa humid subtropical climate zone. It has been shifting north with each 10 year update.  This climate zone covers a large portion of the Eastern US. 

It is not humid here from October through April and usually May. I am not arguing summer humidity comparisons but clearly, tropical and subtropical climates have narrow ranges in temperatures between winter and Summer. We do not.Nobody walks outside when wind chills are -10 and believes we live in any sort of climate description containing the word tropical.

 

 

 

[Jeff Grann]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

people think of the word "tropical" as palm trees and sand.    Doesn't really mean that when you're talking about climate.  

Ok. So we will lump the Equator to NYC as tropical/subtropical and North of there to the Pole as Arctic or sub Arctic. Sounds simple

[donsutherland1]

Latest HREF:

[Jeff Grann]

8 minutes ago, Jeff Grann said:

Ok. So we will lump the Equator to NYC as tropical/subtropical and North of there to the Pole as Arctic or sub Arctic. Sounds simple

I would even reluctantly accept the logic that the subtropics begin South of the line where most everything isn't dormant or dead  during Winter.

[JustinRP37]

2 hours ago, Jeff Grann said:

No. I gave you the dictionary definition of subtropical. We are not a region adjacent to the tropics. Unless you refine 1200 miles as adjacent.

As an ecologist your 'textbook' definition is not what the Koppen system uses. You are also being a little too narrow in your definition of adjacent. What is the immediate climate to our south if not subtropical? North Carolina most definitely has a subtropical climate, yet they are still hundreds of miles from the true 'tropics'. Also, ocean modify climate in a huge way. If you drive directly west of NYC, would you not think the weather is far different? This time of year, you can board a train in GCT and head to the closer northern suburbs and also experience a completely different temperature. When we say NYC is subtropical, we do not mean all the way up to Albany. The next northern climate definition is humid continental climate. The temperature definition for humid continental climate is the coldest month MUST average between 32F and 26.6F. Manhattan DOES NOT experience this on a regular basis anymore. 

A humid subtropical climate "A humid subtropical climate is a zone of climate characterized by hot and humid summers, and cool to mild winters. These climates normally lie on the southeast side of all continents, generally between latitudes 25° and 40° (sometimes 46°) and are located poleward from adjacent tropical climates." NOTE NYC IS AT 40.7° N. Parts of Europe are even further north and are subtropical. If you don't like the term subtropical, you can call it warm temperate. The coldest month in a humid subtropical climate can still average between 32F and 27F, but the warmest month must average 72F or higher. NYC has had this in every summer in recent history. 

If you feel that science is not right, you can research the issue and publish your findings. 

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, Jeff Grann said:

I would even reluctantly accept the logic that the subtropics begin South of the line where most everything isn't dormant or dead  during Winter.

This is a very poor definition to go by because even in our hottest climates, plants will go dormant during the dry season. Cold temperature is not the only thing that forces biological life into dormancy, dry seasons do too as do the hot seasons. Take a look at the list of climates on wikipedia and see which one matches up with NYC "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Köppen_climate_classification"

[bluewave]

Another 80° at Newark today brings the annual count to 110 days.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80	Missing Count
1	2015	118	0
2	1994	114	0
3	2016	113	0
-	1993	113	0
-	1991	113	0
4	2011	111	0
-	2010	111	0
5	2021	110	99

[dieselbug]

2 hours ago, Jeff Grann said:

Tropical:

San Juan PR. Every month averages between 83-88/ 73-78

Sub Tropical: Ft.Myers

72-90/ 57-77

New York City

39-85/ 26-69

 

 

 

 

 

You skipped the Florida keys!  Places like Key West, Marathon etc. are purely tropical.

 

Meanwhile it's 80/70 here, still some peeks of sun with the front just to the west. Front looks to be crawling eastward.

[qg_omega]

On 9/22/2021 at 7:50 AM, bluewave said:

This is such a warm pattern, that even a late September cold front won’t have much cold air behind it. 
 

 

Looks chilly today behind it

[donsutherland1]

Newark reached 80 degrees for the 110th day this year. That is the 8th highest number of days in record.

[Jeff Grann]

26 minutes ago, dieselbug said:

You skipped the Florida keys!  Places like Key West, Marathon etc. are purely tropical.

 

Meanwhile it's 80/70 here, still some peeks of sun with the front just to the west. Front looks to be crawling eastward.

Didn't easily find climate data for those small locations. That's why I chose San Juan

[Jeff Grann]

37 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

This is a very poor definition to go by because even in our hottest climates, plants will go dormant during the dry season. Cold temperature is not the only thing that forces biological life into dormancy, dry seasons do too as do the hot seasons. Take a look at the list of climates on wikipedia and see which one matches up with NYC "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Köppen_climate_classification"

Nothing went dormant in SW Florida that I noticed in Winter besides the bugs. Things may have grown a bit slower but all my tropical trees and plants were still vibrant