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Tropical Storm Fred


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The latest VDM for Fred

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 23:57Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305 
Storm Name: Fred
Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 05 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 23:28:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27.09N 85.69W
B. Center Fix Location: 207 statute miles (333 km) to the WSW (253°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,432m (4,698ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 85° at 4kts (From the E at 5mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 35kts (40.3mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles) to the WNW (301°) of center fix at 23:06:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 78° at 32kts (From the ENE at 36.8mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 67 nautical miles (77 statute miles) to the WNW (301°) of center fix at 23:05:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 38kts (43.7mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles) to the SE (130°) of center fix at 23:50:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 206° at 35kts (From the SSW at 40.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 67 nautical miles (77 statute miles) to the SE (130°) of center fix at 23:51:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp: Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.75 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph) which was observed 67 nautical miles (77 statute miles) to the SE (130°) from the flight level center at 23:51:00Z

 

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Just now, Wannabehippie said:

Center still not under that deep convection

image.thumb.png.2163f7236b949d201f8cdb86aedbc77f.png

 

Yeah, it’s still getting sheared a bit so getting right up under the convection is difficult, but the burst near the center (what looks like a curved band) and prior pressure drop are illustrative of an organizing phase IMO. We’ll see if that’s actually the case on the next pass. 

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35 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Center still not under that deep convection

I think it was for a moment. But I haven't looked at TropicalTidBits and I should learn it better. I spent the afternoon in Photoshop with a grid I made to the 10ths of a degree Lats and Lons trying to map the NOAA LLC points and superimposing sats over it to see what exactly was going on. Hardly a perfect method especially after 30 minutes goes by and longer with the storm moving along....

Nice blowup going on even though surely displaced a bit.

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Latest VDM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 1:55Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Name: Fred
Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 11 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 1:30:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.98N 86.05W
B. Center Fix Location: 230 statute miles (371 km) to the WSW (253°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,461m (4,793ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 160° at 22kts (From the SSE at 25mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 40kts (46.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 67 nautical miles (77 statute miles) to the NE (44°) of center fix at 1:09:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 107° at 44kts (From the ESE at 50.6mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 62 nautical miles (71 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix at 1:11:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 34kts (39.1mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the W (272°) of center fix at 1:32:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 13° at 30kts (From the NNE at 34.5mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the W (272°) of center fix at 1:32:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) which was observed 95 nautical miles (109 statute miles) to the E (94°) from the flight level center at 0:22:00Z
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4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

New dropsonde data suggests 999 mb at the center.  However, over the last hour the surface center and convection have become detached.  The surface center appears to have drifted westward and is now totally exposed.

Yep--looks like the center got shunted a little SW per the VDM 

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11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yep--looks like the center got shunted a little SW per the VDM 

I wouldn't have believed it if I couldn't see it on the visible! LOL

Oh well, I have to go to bed. My Sunday fun is over, will be up at 4 and see what is happening. :)

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It looks like Fred is making an attempt at organizing/intensifying once again. Radar out of northern Florida shows the center once again trying to wrap convection around and increased velocities around the apparent center. 

IR shows what seems to be Fred's best appearance yet. 

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611fa50ee32e6e5f96b0a

If the center can stay under the convection and the convection wrap around, this could make a run at a minimal hurricane. Either way, this is likely to be a big rainmaker for a good part of the region. 

MW8qRnX.gif

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5 minutes ago, Seminole said:

House has been swaying off and on since 2:00 AM.  Steady 25 to 30 mph wind now. Looks like the bad stuff is a couple of hours away. I will post some pics when we get some more daylight.  

Was just checking the winds up there. Looks like you might take the brunt of the convection.

image.thumb.png.57db49520ee93dd76954055df0e50cc4.png

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Interesting geography note: if Fred goes due north it would hit the piece of land jutting out. But the models all show it making a slight turn to the northwest bringing it into the bend between Destin and Panama City. This track would give it another good hour or more of intensification. 

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First VDM. Next pass likely to be a NE to SW pass. 

 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 12:36Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Storm Name: Fred
Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 02 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 11:57:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28.72N 85.61W
B. Center Fix Location: 101 statute miles (162 km) to the S (178°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 622m (2,041ft) at 925mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.33 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 42kts (48.3mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the SSW (194°) of center fix at 11:54:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 350° at 49kts (From the N at 56.4mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the SW (229°) of center fix at 11:49:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 46kts (52.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the ESE (113°) of center fix at 12:03:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 201° at 55kts (From the SSW at 63.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the ESE (116°) of center fix at 12:03:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 757m (2,484ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 27°C (81°F) at a pressure alt. of 770m (2,526ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 925mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the ESE (116°) from the flight level center at 12:03:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 27°C (81°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the S (183°) from the flight level center
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Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
730 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND FRED INTENSIFYING AND LOCATED A 
LITTLE FARTHER EAST...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that Fred is intensifying this morning, and now has maximum 
sustained winds near 60 mph (95 km/h), with an estimated minimum 
central pressure of 993 mb (29.32 inches).  

Data from the aircraft and National Weather Service Doppler radar 
indicate that Fred is now moving toward the north at 10 mph (17 
km/h). 


SUMMARY OF 730 AM CDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 85.6W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Pasch
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8 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

GFS really strengthens Fred down to 983 mb at landfall that is pretty dramatic should be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. 

GFS might not be terribly far off given what we're seeing so far this morning. Very impressive pressure drop. 

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