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August 2021


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8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

If we do get a direct hit from a hurricane this season it would maintain a lot of its strength.

 

Those temps are very deceptive. They are surface temps. Our waters cool rapidly once 10+ feet down. So move a hurricane over and the winds and seas quickly upwell cooler water. Watch the water temps after this weekend cool into the high 60s

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1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Those temps are very deceptive. They are surface temps. Our waters cool rapidly once 10+ feet down. So move a hurricane over and the winds and seas quickly upwell cooler water. Watch the water temps after this weekend cool into the high 60s

and lots of upwelling with a slow moving system?  If this isn't the last system we get, later on in the season, September or October, is when we usually get much faster moving systems that dont cause upwelling, isn't it?

 

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25 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

78 / 69 and cloudy.  Unlike Wed / Thu today looks mainly cloudy.  Saturday - Sunday more of the same clouds / humid and increasing storm / rain chances increasing by Sun as Henri tracks east of NJ into E=LI / and SNE.  Henri will come into SNE then hook left into the Catskills later Sun into Mon.  We'll likely deal with clouds and showers till then.  

 

By Tue (8/23) - Fri (8/27) ridge over the EC, clears out and we heat up.  850 temps forecast at >16c by Tue then >18c Wed (8/25) and Thu (8/26).  

Front and more onshore humid / hung up boundary later next week into next weekend.  Longer range does look to continue warm to hot as some guidance hinting strong heat out west slides east towards the end of the month and opening of next month. 8/30 and beynd.

no end to the humidity or even a break?

 

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5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and lots of upwelling with a slow moving system?  If this isn't the last system we get, later on in the season, September or October, is when we usually get much faster moving systems that dont cause upwelling, isn't it?

 

Any hurricane will cause upwelling regardless of speed. That’s why OHC is more important then surface temps. The reason our biggest strongest canes are moving fast is they just don’t have time to weaken over our cooler waters as they rocket out of the Gulf Stream. A big reason our strongest cane in modern times 38, was also the fastest moving Atlantic hurricane of all time 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Any hurricane will cause upwelling regardless of speed. That’s why OHC is more important then surface temps. The reason our biggest strongest canes are moving fast is they just don’t have time to weaken over our cooler waters as they rocket out of the Gulf Stream. A big reason our strongest cane in modern times 38, was also the fastest moving Atlantic hurricane of all time 

Also Sandy had a huge assist from a strong mid latitude trough that phased into it. This will be purely tropical and a smaller radius. Big question will be how fast it's moving as it gets here, if it's less than 20-25mph it'll weaken pretty fast and it landfalls as a tropical storm. 

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2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Any hurricane will cause upwelling regardless of speed. That’s why OHC is more important then surface temps. The reason our biggest strongest canes are moving fast is they just don’t have time to weaken over our cooler waters as they rocket out of the Gulf Stream. A big reason our strongest cane in modern times 38, was also the fastest moving Atlantic hurricane of all time 

what caused Gloria to weaken so quickly? I heard it was moving at a similar speed

 

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Also Sandy had a huge assist from a strong mid latitude trough that phased into it. This will be purely tropical and a smaller radius. Big question will be how fast it's moving as it gets here, if it's less than 20-25mph it'll weaken pretty fast and it landfalls as a tropical storm. 

so in a way the assist from the trough makes them bigger and more powerful? total energy Sandy dwarfs most hurricanes

 

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8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today was the calm before the possible storm. The sky was covered by some low- and mid-, and high-level clouds. The temperature rose into the lower 80s.

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Don, after reading through the many understandably anxious posts in the multi forums I needed your photos, thank you. As always ….

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During the weekend, the track of Henri will have potential impacts on the weather, especially for Sunday into Monday. A period of blocking will be developing. However, the block will not rival that which steered Sandy to New Jersey landfall. Nevertheless, the guidance is now favoring a track farther to the west than had been the case 24 hours ago.

At present, a track that takes Henri across Long Island and then into New England has become the most likely outcome. That will likely bring pounding surf and periods of heavy rain to the region. Parts of Long Island and southern New England could experience hurricane-force wind gusts.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was +13.72 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.490 today.

On August 18 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.936 (RMM). The August 17-adjusted amplitude was 2.349 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9° (0.9° above normal).

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 81degs.(73/90), or +7.

75*(95%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue, some scattered clouds,     P = 1014mb.       80*(82%RH) at Noon,    P = 1015mb.

EURO has 12× more rain than the GFS for TS Henri around here.     NYC is  in the 100% Prob. for TS winds on the EURO too........but at

9am.: Storm looks crummy as the 500mb. L is to the s.e. and the 850mb L is to the n.     Not at all vertically stacked like a PB Bunny lol.     OTS?

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly cloudy. A few places could see a shower or thundershower especially late in the day. Temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 84°

Newark: 87°

Philadelphia: 86°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 82.9°; 15-Year: 82.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.2°; 15-Year: 84.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.4°; 15-Year: 85.1°

Henri will impact the region tomorrow. Landfall on Long Island remains the most likely outcome before it heads into southern New England. It should be tugged northwestward for a time by an upper low to the west and a formative Greenland block. How far west it comes remains uncertain. The uncertainty is reflected by the lack of run-to-run continuity between the overnight guidance and earlier runs. The 0z and 6z GFS are far apart. Parts of Long Island and New England could experience hurricane-force wind gusts. 

In addition, August 22 daily rainfall records are likely in numbers locations. For reference, daily rainfall records for select locations are below:

Bridgeport: 1.42”, 1994

Farmingdale: 0.89”, 2019

Hartford: 1.95”, 1937

Islip: 2.21”, 1977

New Haven: 2.25”, 2010

New York City-JFK: 2.00”, 1994

New York City-LGA: 2.34”, 1994

New York City-NYC: 1.85”, 1994

Newark: 1.70”, 1994

Poughkeepsie: 3.70”, 2010

Westhampton: 1.41”, 1952

White Plains: 3.04”, 2010

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77/69 here and cloudy again as storms on the ocean throw back clouds.  Warm and Humid again today and with any pokes of sun for longer durations temps could spike from generally the low 80s to the upper 80s.  Henri on Sunday before clearing out Monday (8/23).  

Ridge over the east and clearer skies allow temps to heat up and late season heatwave Tue (8/24) - Fri (8/27).  850 temps >18c by Wed and Thu (8/26). 

Next weekend should see a front come through and bring a short 2 days of cooler weather (but near normal) before more warmth returns by the 30th.  Looks to continue warm to close the month with some models hinting that some of the stronger heat out west slides east in the 8/31 and onward timeframe

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8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Another Saturday at the New York Botanical Garden. Despite mostly cloudy skies and a sprinkle, the temperature climbed into the lower 80s. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, it felt quite uncomfortable. Nevertheless, much is still in bloom.

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Before, during and after the storm, their beauty prevails. As always ….

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Hurricane Henri will likely move across eastern Long Island or just pass offshore before making landfall along the southern New England coast. That will likely bring pounding surf and periods of heavy rain to the region. Parts of Long Island and southern New England could experience hurricane-force wind gusts. Already, feeder bands are bringing heavy downpours, thunder and lightning to parts of the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was +11.05 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.095 today.

On August 19 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.638 (RMM). The August 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.938 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.1° (1.1° above normal).

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 83degs.(75/92), or +10.

GFS says 2" more today, the EURO says 5".      GFS had virtually none for yesterday.

Rain ratios of 110:1 at nearby stations.   NYC. 4.45"   Bridgeport. 0.04"-----so I will not recommend extinction for the GFS.     HW still its theme, however.

74*(99%RH) here at 6am, overcast, wet streets.   P = 1011mb.

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Morning thoughts…

Last night was a historic night in Central Park. For the first time on record, 1.35” or more rain fell for two consecutive hours, including a new hourly record figure of 1.94”. 2021 also recorded its record 3rd day of the year with an hourly amount of 1.35” or more. Total rainfall came to 4.45”, which broke the daily record of 4.19” from 1888 and was the 5th highest daily figure on record for August.

Henri will pass east of Long Island before making landfall in Rhode Island. It will be mostly cloudy, windy, with rain. Heavy downpours are likely. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 77°

Newark: 80°

Philadelphia: 81°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 82.8°; 15-Year: 82.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.1°; 15-Year: 84.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 84.9°

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy, breezy, and warmer. Showers and thundershowers are still possible.

For reference, daily rainfall records for select locations are below:

Bridgeport: 1.42”, 1994

Farmingdale: 0.89”, 2019

Hartford: 1.95”, 1937

Islip: 2.21”, 1977

New Haven: 2.25”, 2010

New York City-JFK: 2.00”, 1994

New York City-LGA: 2.34”, 1994

New York City-NYC: 1.85”, 1994

Newark: 1.70”, 1994

Poughkeepsie: 3.70”, 2010

Westhampton: 1.41”, 1952

White Plains: 3.04”, 2010

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74/73 and 3.19 in the bucket.  Henri to the east ULL to the south and humid and wet next 28 hours. 

Western Atlantic ridge build in cleanly by Tuesday (8/24) through Fri (8/27) 4 day heatwave more many (park a bit too wet so lots of 89s there).  850 temps >16c and peaking to near 18c by Wed / Thu (8/26). 

Somewhat of a cool down but still warm next weekend Sat (8/28) with ridge resurging by 8/29 - 8/31 and more heat (90s) possible.  Minor / short lived day or two  cooldowns but overwall warm into the long range.

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