August 2021

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Not a drop so far, not expecting any

Central Union County in NJ hasn't received any rain either.  Radar looks strange, with rain cells moving west from the coast, and east along the western Jersey border.  

[Dan76]

1 hour ago, dWave said:

Was it supposed to be this windy today?

Yes 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But not getting more extreme heat unfortunately, the yucky buggy and disease filled tropical kind of heat.

I'm doing a slight redefinition of what I consider a hot summer.....this one fits my idea of a hot summer slightly better.

 

EWR/LGA..... at least 40 90 degree days and 1 day of 100+

NYC.............. at least 30 90 degree days and 1 day of 100+

JFK............... at least 20 90 degree days and 1 day of 100+

most of my top summers make this list and the ones that dont, dont deserve to

 

It all depends on how you define extreme heat. Newark set a June all-time maximum temperature of 103°. LGA had the 2nd highest June maximum temperature at 100°. ISP recorded the 2nd highest number of 90° days for August. 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	103	0
2	2011	102	0
-	1994	102	0
-	1993	102	0
-	1952	102	0
-	1943	102	0
3	1988	101	0
-	1966	101	0
4	1959	100	0
-	1953	100	0
-	1934	100	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2017	101	0
-	1952	101	0
2	2021	100	0
-	2008	100	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	1980	8	0
2	2021	7	4
-	2016	7	0
-	2005	7	0

[psv88]

Pouring. This summer sucks for weekend outdoor activities 

[Dan76]

A lot cooler today than what was forecasted. 

[Intensewind002]

91, 92, 91, 93 back home during that heatwave. Yesterday was the hottest day so far this year, beating a few 92’s going back to May. Looks like a midnight high of 78 today

[Intensewind002]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

First/Last Occurrence Summary for New York-Kennedy Airport Area, NY
Each column contains date and year of occurrence

DateFirstLast

2000Jun-10 (2000)Aug-08 (2000)

2001Jun-27 (2001)Aug-10 (2001)

2002Apr-17 (2002)Aug-18 (2002)

2003Jun-24 (2003)Aug-27 (2003)

2004Jun-09 (2004)Jun-09 (2004)

2005Jun-14 (2005)Sep-12 (2005)

2006Jul-02 (2006)Aug-20 (2006)

2007Jun-17 (2007)Oct-08 (2007)

2008Jun-08 (2008)Aug-06 (2008)

2009Jul-30 (2009)Aug-19 (2009)

2010May-26 (2010)Sep-08 (2010)

2011Jun-09 (2011)Aug-08 (2011)

2012Jun-20 (2012)Sep-01 (2012)

2013Jun-24 (2013)Jul-20 (2013)

2014Jun-18 (2014)Sep-02 (2014)

2015Jun-21 (2015)Sep-08 (2015)

2016Jun-22 (2016)Sep-09 (2016)

2017May-19 (2017)Sep-24 (2017)

2018Jun-29 (2018)Sep-04 (2018)

2019Jun-27 (2019)Oct-02 (2019)

2020Jul-02 (2020)Aug-27 (2020)

2021May-22 (2021)-

MinimumApr-17 (2002)Jun-09 (2004)

MeanJun-15Aug-25

MaximumJul-30 (2009)Oct-08 (2007)

2004 only had one 90?

[Intensewind002]

Only 6.81” of rain on the month for me but 4.86” in the last week. Today will probably add another inch to the monthly total

[MJO812]

Euro has alot of rain with the remnants 

[donsutherland1]

it was cloudy, breezy, and cool today in the New York Botanical Garden. The temperature was in the 70s throughout the afternoon.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

It all depends on how you define extreme heat. Newark set a June all-time maximum temperature of 103°. LGA had the 2nd highest June maximum temperature at 100°. ISP recorded the 2nd highest number of 90° days for August. 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	103	0
2	2011	102	0
-	1994	102	0
-	1993	102	0
-	1952	102	0
-	1943	102	0
3	1988	101	0
-	1966	101	0
4	1959	100	0
-	1953	100	0
-	1934	100	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2017	101	0
-	1952	101	0
2	2021	100	0
-	2008	100	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	1980	8	0
2	2021	7	4
-	2016	7	0
-	2005	7	0

It makes me wonder if this heat was timed better (read mid or late July) if we all would have hit 100+

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Intensewind002 said:

2004 only had one 90?

lol yea I guess.  I'm going to look back and find 1992 because I think that was even cooler.  Cold and rainy summer, we dont get  a lot of those anymore.  Rainy yes cold hell no.

 

edit- well 1992 had 6 somehow, with 1 in June and 5 in July.  1950 and 1951 only had 2 and 1 respectively, so 3 days over 2 years lol.  2014 only had 2.....but the big surprise was 1967 which had 0 90 degree days!  I wonder if this was actually the case or if there is missing day from that year, because it came after the ultra hot summer of 1966 when JFK had 3 days of 100+ (matched only by 2010) and their all time high of 104 (also LGA's all time high of 107).

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Today was mainly cloudy and cool in the New York City area. Parts of Suffolk County picked up 3"-6" of rain. Philadelphia also picked up a daily record 3.17" (old record: 2.33", 1978). During the 2000-21 period, Philadelphia has averaged 0.9 days per year during which 3" or more of precipitation was recorded. That is triple the annual average for the 1872-1999 period.

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and a bit warmer. A few locations could see a shower or two.

Looking farther ahead, September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures overall.

Ida will likely make landfall along the Louisiana coast as a Category 4 hurricane. A widespread 10"-15" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely along its path.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around August 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.41°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. Afterward, La Niña could begin to develop.

The SOI was +4.43 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.662 today.

On August 26 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.1.291 (RMM). The August 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.752 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.6° (1.6° above normal).

 

[psv88]

No wind here today, actually made a pool day out of it between rain drops 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

i feel like the spirit is correct but this will end up overdone--a corridor of 3-inch rains as wide as Jersey is long?

one of the more aggressive post-tropical cyclone forecasts i've seen up here especially for something landfalling so far away.

we're getting those high totals because of the high dew points....just look at what happened last night and today

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

the TC is its own environment though isn't it.  i mean, it's the TC's moisture, and any forcing due to adjacent air masses, to get your rain totals.  even if there's an mT airmass overhead ahead of the TC, wouldn't its moisture pale in comparison to the TC itself?

what i'm saying is, as this thing crosses, is it going to drop a huge band of 4"+?  i'm definitely not saying that can't happen but that's pretty crazy for a TC that's not stuck in some weird flow regime that just gets stuck over here.  the rain map definitely shows it coming in and out in a pretty smooth fashion.

i think extratropical storms tend to move faster than modeled.

that PRE has me worried, I think we saw the same thing in July when all hell broke loose even before the remnants got here.  Our subways were flooded, it was a nightmare.

[CIK62]

The last 3 days of August are averaging 79degs.(73/86), or +8.

Still 3"-6" from IDA remnants.

Month to date is  77.7[+1.4].         August would end at  77.8[+1.8].      More likely at 77.5.

68*(80RH%) here at 6am, overcast.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be variably cloudy, breezy, and a bit warmer. A shower is possible, especially in western parts of the region. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 77°

Newark: 81°

Philadelphia: 82°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 81.5°; 15-Year: 81.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 82.9°; 15-Year: 82.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 84.1°; 15-Year: 83.8°

Powerful Hurricane Ida will make landfall along the Louisiana coast as a Category 4 hurricane. There is a small possibility that it could peak as a category 5 hurricane near or during landfall. Its rains will likely impact the Middle Atlantic region during midweek. 

[MJO812]

7 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

i feel like the spirit is correct but this will end up overdone--a corridor of 3-inch rains as wide as Jersey is long?

one of the more aggressive post-tropical cyclone forecasts i've seen up here especially for something landfalling so far away.

The storm is also getting energized by the incoming trough.

[bluewave]

Numerous stations in the OKX forecast zones went over 10 inches of rain for both July and August. Started a new thread to document all these extreme 10” rainfall months since 2003.

 

Monthly Data for August 2021 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Precipitation
NY	BROOKLYN 3.1 NW	CoCoRaHS	11.85
NJ	RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE	CoCoRaHS	11.38
NJ	WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE	CoCoRaHS	10.90
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	10.32
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	10.24

 

Monthly Data for July 2021 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Precipitation
NY	PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N	CoCoRaHS	14.76
CT	NORTHFORD 0.8 SW	CoCoRaHS	12.54
CT	DARIEN 3.6 N	CoCoRaHS	12.06
CT	DARIEN 2.4 NW	CoCoRaHS	11.43
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	11.09
CT	STRATFORD 0.9 W	CoCoRaHS	11.04
CT	WESTPORT 2.5 ENE	CoCoRaHS	11.01
CT	NORWALK 2.9 NNW	CoCoRaHS	10.98
CT	NORWALK 1.4 ENE	CoCoRaHS	10.75
CT	DARIEN 1.8 ENE	CoCoRaHS	10.71
NY	ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE	CoCoRaHS	10.68
CT	STAMFORD 4.2 S	CoCoRaHS	10.62
CT	DURHAM 2.2 SSW	CoCoRaHS	10.58
NY	QUEENS 3.7 N	CoCoRaHS	10.54
CT	NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	10.48
NJ	LINDEN 2.2 NW	CoCoRaHS	10.32
CT	WEST HAVEN 0.8 W	CoCoRaHS	10.29
CT	REDDING 1.4 E	CoCoRaHS	10.25
CT	MIDDLEFIELD 0.6 SE	CoCoRaHS	10.24
NY	LOCUST VALLEY 0.3 E	CoCoRaHS	10.13

 

[qg_omega]

Another not nice weekend 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

Today will be variably cloudy, breezy, and a bit warmer. A shower is possible, especially in western parts of the region. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 77°

Newark: 81°

Philadelphia: 82°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 81.5°; 15-Year: 81.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 82.9°; 15-Year: 82.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 84.1°; 15-Year: 83.8°

Powerful Hurricane Ida will make landfall along the Louisiana coast as a Category 4 hurricane. There is a small possibility that it could peak as a category 5 hurricane near or during landfall. Its rains will likely impact the Middle Atlantic region during midweek. 

Don, why don't we categorize these 150 mph + storms as Super Hurricanes like they call them Super Typhoons in the Pacific? I feel like that adds more attention and significance to them as well as 150 mph being a special benchmark (2x minimal 75 mph hurricane threshold, or 4x stronger using the square law).  That said this will likely become a Cat 5 at landfall just like Andrew and Michael were, just look at the warmth of the waters there.  Amazing on the 16 year anniversary of Katrina.

I still think these truly special high end storms should get the moniker of "Super"
 

[rclab]

22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, why don't we categorize these 150 mph + storms as Super Hurricanes like they call them Super Typhoons in the Pacific? I feel like that adds more attention and significance to them as well as 150 mph being a special benchmark (2x minimal 75 mph hurricane threshold, or 4x stronger using the square law).  That said this will likely become a Cat 5 at landfall just like Andrew and Michael were, just look at the warmth of the waters there.  Amazing on the 16 year anniversary of Katrina.

I still think these truly special high end storms should get the moniker of "Super"
 

Good afternoon, Liberty. I understand your very good suggestion. I feel, if folks are not reacting to the adjectives dangerous and catastrophic, I wonder if ‘Super’ will really add to their sense of peril and ongoing ennui. As always ….

[donsutherland1]

45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, why don't we categorize these 150 mph + storms as Super Hurricanes like they call them Super Typhoons in the Pacific? I feel like that adds more attention and significance to them as well as 150 mph being a special benchmark (2x minimal 75 mph hurricane threshold, or 4x stronger using the square law).  That said this will likely become a Cat 5 at landfall just like Andrew and Michael were, just look at the warmth of the waters there.  Amazing on the 16 year anniversary of Katrina.

I still think these truly special high end storms should get the moniker of "Super"
 

I am not sure. After all, we categorize them as major hurricanes at Cat. 3

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I am not sure. After all, we categorize them as major hurricanes at Cat. 3

I think they do that in all basins.  But then there is a level above that which is everything will be destroyed, get the hell out of there.  Basically nuclear bomb level kind of damage.

[doncat]

High temp today of 74 with all the clouds...Humidity has been on the rise however with current DP of 70 degrees.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warmer. A few locations could see a shower or two.

Looking farther ahead, September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures overall.

Ida is continuing to batter Louisiana after having made landfall with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph. Ida will slowly move away from New Orleans overnight, but not before dumping additional heavy rain and inflicting further wind-driven damage.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around August 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.41°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. Afterward, La Niña could begin to develop.

The SOI was +13.59 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.963 today.

On August 27 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.349 (RMM). The August 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.291 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.6° (1.6° above normal).

 

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 70*, DP 68, RH 94%

[bluewave]

It’s the new normal for nearly every summer since 2010 to make the top 10 warmest around the region.

 

[CIK62]

The last 2 days of August are averaging 81degs.(74/88), or +9.

Month to date is  77.5[+1.3].       Would end at 78.2[+2.0]        More likely 78.0.

IDA leftovers 1" to 4".      Then  a sunny, BN holiday weekend---up to L.D.

Yesterday 68-77 here.

72*(99%RH) here at 6am,  FOG<0.1mile.      73* at 8am Fog<2.0miles.    Fog is variable.     77* at Noon, hazy sun.       80* at 1pm.        82* at 4pm.      Reached 85* at 5pm.