psv88 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Brief shower rolled in…time to scrap the FFW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Looks that way, but I'll still give it until sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 More storms firing and heading into the NYC metro from the southwest. It looks like portions of the NYC area could have some overnight heavy rain/storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 One cell is over me now, but the one over Reading looks like it means business for points further north. I remember a lot of this stuff when I lived in Jersey City and NYC - overnight storms - less so here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Storms having trouble holding together as they approaching the NYC metro. Have to see what happens the rest of the night and later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 FFW dropped for most of the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 The rain is finally about to come to New York City. Though it’s going to be going at a fast speed, it’ll still drop at least an inch of rain today! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 Good Wednesday morning all! Not quite as much SVR yesterday as expected NJ, and the extent of heavy rainfall was confined to NJ/PA and as other have noted BUST. I want to tell you to predict 4-5" of rain in a 60 hour period via "convection" here in the northeast is exceedingly difficult. IT happened, as you know near PHL and if you don't know, here also in nw NJ. I'll await CoCoRAHS and COOP data reports but there are via WXUNDERGROUND, spot 4-4.5" as posted yesterday are probably accurate. I had 2.11 here in Wantage. The point: The NWS excessive outlook I thought was reasonable and verified in nw NJ. Going forward: I may extend the headline through Sunday in a late day or Wednesday morning update?? Otherwise, it appears to me a modest heat wave is in the offing for interior NJ, and maybe EWR-LGA Thu-Sat; beginning Wed interior NJ; and maybe continuing from yesterday in the extreme southern part of our subforum. Slight chance HEAT Advisory needed Fri or Sat? TSTMS: Today: Potential for a cluster or two of showers/tstms in NJ early afternoon, certainly ne PA into interior se NYS and possibly extreme nw NJ between 5PM and 2AM when there is a good chance of spotty WAA SVR with TT rising to near 51, and wind fields at mid levels to 40 kt with INCREASING CAPE during the evening-overnight. Please see SPC D! SVR which is marginal our area and higher risk ne PA. Wed afternoon: Iso SVR possible in big CAPE, marginal wind situation. SPC Marginal risk. Thu-FrI: Beach Days-probably rainfall free and warm. Sat: Big CAPE but marginal wind. Still with the approaching cool front, SVR possible. Sunday: Do bands of heavy showers linger or dry out? Seems like the EC is slowing down and may need to extend this thread one day?? A little concerned about shortwave closing off across PA at 500 MB and below?? Next week: appears drier to me once the front passes south. So, LI and southern CT do not appear to br prime active weather til maybe this weekend, but NJ/ne PA/interior se NYS might have some interesting weather the next two afternoons/evening? and then looks pretty good there for this weekend 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 16 minutes ago, wdrag said: I want to tell you to predict 4-5" of rain in a 60 hour period via "convection" here in the northeast is exceedingly difficult. The regional signal from the models was very strong for a high end flash flooding event. But pinpointing the exact location is always going to be a challenge before the convection forms. NYC was able to add a 2nd hourly rainfall record in under a week. So the most extreme portion of the event occurred near the southern edge of the outlook zone issued earlier in the day by the WPC. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=519&yr=2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The regional signal from the models was very strong for a high end flash flooding event. But pinpointing the exact location is always going to be a challenge before the convection forms. NYC was able to add a 2nd hourly rainfall record in under a week. So the most extreme portion of the event occurred near the southern edge of the outlook zone issued earlier in the day by the WPC. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=519&yr=2021 You're on top of it... I think this was a pretty good effort highlighting potential. PWAT/CAMS modeling bullseyes are constantly improving predictability. IF the NNJ max occurred 20-30 mi further east ... headlines all over NYC news. Right now, they don't know how difficult it was out here last eve. Folks pumping out basements this morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, wdrag said: You're on top of it... I think this was a pretty good effort highlighting potential. PWAT/CAMS modeling bullseyes are constantly improving predictability. IF the NNJ max occurred 20-30 mi further east ... headlines all over NYC news. Right now, they don't know how difficult it was out here last eve. Folks pumping out basements this morning. I agree. It only rained for maybe 5 mins late last night and thats it here in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 By the way the MPD highlighted by Bluewave was excellently written, analyzed and results were pretty good. W of NYC and NW-NNE of PHl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpsnavigator Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 2.8" of rain last night in Lafayette (Sussex County). Looked to me like the two hot zones for yesterday's heavy rain event were over the northwestern part of the state, and also down by the Cherry Hill area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 SVR watch for PA right up to the Hunterdon County border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 A storm chaser did a great job documenting the water rescues in Bensalem, PA. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 14, 2021 Author Share Posted July 14, 2021 Routine til late Friday or this weekend and even then the non-routine may not be too bad?? So it rained in the northwest part of the forum early this morning, mainly nw of I95, (0.06 here in Wantage with a bit of distant lightning). The SVR storms upstream in PA/NYS weakened into our forum after midnight. Bad timing, despite a pulse of considerable instability-favorable winds aloft. Just not enough for 1AM events. So those looking for big action- seems routine summer the next several days as I think a 3-5 day heat wave develops today (originally did not expect the 90-93F in NNJ Monday, instead expected it YDY). I kind of think the heat should start this afternoon and peak probably Saturday when a Heat Advisory may be necessary. If the 06z/14 GFS is correct, this will not happen. It's possible 90F will linger Sunday along the coast but this entire EC based scenario does not agree with the 06z/14 GFS which is faster-cooler this weekend. I'll go with the EC through Saturday and unknown Sunday. SVR: Today- There will probably be a few svr North of I84 late this afternoon but wind fields are weakening and the TT is not favorable so this may go down as a nil event, especially NJ where Bigger CAPE exists but no obvious release driver. As per SPC, monitor CT and if it goes fairly big there???? it may die out as weakening TSTMs e LI tonight???? Thursday: Continues to look rainfree-good beach day. Friday: IF a line of scattered SVR storms in NYS holds together, it could drift down into the northern part of subforum at night. The faster GFS would favor this occurrence. Saturday: Looks a little rough around here with big CAPE - 2" PW and might be FF material- winds aloft not too strong. Wet microburst afternoon depending on whether we're still in the warm sector? Sunday: Depending on frontal position-there could be a load of rain. For now uncertain but would probably favor south of I80 in central NJ but very uncertain. Monitor the GGEM on big QPF...the 00z/14 cycle may not have it right but it is trying to tell us something pretty substantial is coming, as is the EC op QPF for this weekend. Did not add a day to the the original thread title since model differences are large this weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 14, 2021 Author Share Posted July 14, 2021 Not much change in my thinking. Focus Saturday or Fri eve-Sat night for one or two bands of FF/SVR. Enough wind aloft Saturday for SVR, plus instab via CAPE 2000J, TT near 50 look good, plus the CF in vicinity. Could have a lead dying line of sct SVR Fri eve, but the bigger qpf and potential for FF is Saturday. Otherwise a routine modest short Heat Wave appears to in progress across NJ having started today. HIndex Fri near 100 (day earlier than this mornings Sat EC expectation). How warm Sat??? Keep monitoring GGEM...if it has 2+, we're good. If it shifts south, then subforum might miss. Still worthy of monitoring. Could be pretty big rainfall in few spots (2-4"?) Rest of this afternoon... Am looking north of I84 for strongest wind/rain through 8 PM. The cluster s of Morristown NJ at 335P may be producing small hail. Thursday---good beach day. Cant rule out an isolated late day shower but less chance than today, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Decent storm rolling through northern union county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maureen Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 38 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Decent storm rolling through northern union county Got a bit darker, wind picked up and hearing some thunder here in Carteret. No rain though. At least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 51 minutes ago, Maureen said: Got a bit darker, wind picked up and hearing some thunder here in Carteret. No rain though. At least not yet. Got pummeled up in summit And picked up .32 at home in Plainfield 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 I got nicked by the bottom edge of that cell. A few cracks of thunder and a decent downpour. Drove to the Outerbridge and its bone dry with the sun shining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 15 minutes ago, SI Mailman said: I got nicked by the bottom edge of that cell. A few cracks of thunder and a decent downpour. Drove to the Outerbridge and its bone dry with the sun shining. Got 0.38" in Castleton Corners but just 0.01" in Travis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 14, 2021 Author Share Posted July 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Got pummeled up in summit And picked up .32 at home in Plainfield I see a report of wires down in Summit that the NWS posted- 4P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Got crushed in a popcorn cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 45 minutes ago, wdrag said: I see a report of wires down in Summit that the NWS posted- 4P. Quite a few branches down and some street flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Got .12 from that cell that came across Brooklyn. Radar looked juicier though. High of 87. DP 77 now after the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 nobody is in that storm now over Monmouth? thing looks nuts. i just got caught in the rain from the little piece in Middlesex, can’t imagine how heavy the real stuff is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: nobody is in that storm now over Monmouth? thing looks nuts. i just got caught in the rain from the little piece in Middlesex, can’t imagine how heavy the real stuff is. We don't have many Monmouth posters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: nobody is in that storm now over Monmouth? thing looks nuts. i just got caught in the rain from the little piece in Middlesex, can’t imagine how heavy the real stuff is. I was driving through it. Insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 15, 2021 Share Posted July 15, 2021 ^^ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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