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July 2021 Discussion


moneypitmike
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I think it interesting that despite all these 10 to 15"  monthly rain total posts there really isn't an ongoing river-out-of-banks scenario throughout the pan -SNE region.  Other than a few incident, transient quick reponder -type tributaries - all we have to show for this 'drama' is the July anomaly of lush green lawn. Call CNN!

It shows how hard it is to actually flood this old geology.   I mean point being, what it takes to 'flood' here.   You need truly absurd things to happen to make it amazing.  Like October 1996, or May 2005 ( Merrimack), or March 2010.   ...or going further back.  1987 ..1930s...etc. They were amazing, but only just -

October '96 was a unique scenario of a TC being partially stripping away by a synoptic interaction. Reminded me on satellite of deep field Astronomy. Some doomed gravity bound star being elongated and pulled into an intake channel, this TC schmuck's guts got dumped over E and SE zones.  I think Winchester had clocked 10" in a single night in that one. 

May 2005 was extraordinary along the Merrimack.  As someone who went to school at UML and I can tell you, the specter of that visage as the water rose so high was gasping. It was certainly never seen before, personally.  I remember the 15 to 22" Pawtucket dam and how that fall- draft was no longer falling water. It had become but a surface dent like a macrocosm of water moving over a boulders in a stream? Same behavior but so much mass you don't exist.  It sort of had that creepy feel to it ... like that scene in "TItanic" in the engine room when the iron piston cinema combined with the audio presentation were so overwhelming.

March 2010 had decent snow-melt-back to snow oscillations through the antecedent months of winter. And then came March.  Actually, technically the onslaught began at the end of February, with a retrograde coastal that rained ...but not as much as the real heavy onslaught, which came in three events 4-6" each spanning three weeks, exquisitely timed with said ground release.  One spectacle that was particularly awesome,  a friend and I were en route to Mohegan Sun in CT. As Rt 13 I think it was ... cut over the top of a pine forest, from that vantage, the entire expanse of forest floor was water tumbling over rocks and old wood detritus. 

Granted, these are in general anecdotal accounting. Just off the top of one's memory.   Each one of these events took place because of exceedingly rare return rate scenarios.  Yet, not many of them did that kind of extra-special damage you see around the world.   It didn't do Europe ( recently ..) for example.  Although I'm sure some offended bloke with a town or backyard impact memory will try to lean a post content against the weight of this statement. But no. Not really.   Not saying it can't happen - but it's like our snow pack thing.  It's very difficult to exceed 36" inches for elevations below say 700 feet.  I have lived all over eastern Mass for the past 35 years, and never have seen the snow pack approach 40" ...and have only seen that once, and 36" occurred twice.  Something always happens to neuter a scenario down. 

We get our big events, but the irony is, the rarest of all, ... probably that 1953 Worcester tornado in the relative scale, is the most extraordinary thing to ever have happened here. Maybe rarer yet ...in 1755 an Earthquake estimated between 6.3 and 6.7 occurred not 20 Mi E of Cape Ann where the Merrimack Valley, which is the surface vestige of supposed dormant fault, plunges into the Atlantic abyss.  That occurred, mind you ..., 150 years before brick and mortar, steal and glass serrated city sky-lines.

 

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After 6 hours of light rain, caught perhaps the edge of the good stuff 11:30P-12:30A.  Finished with 1.26" and Farmington/Temple had just over half as much - must've just missed the heavier period.  July total now 6.25", about 155% of average.  However, May/June combined was only 2.78" and average here for May-June-July is a bit north of 13" so still 4" BN for that 3-month period.  Shows that in the Sandy, which peaked this morning about halfway between the median flow and 25th percentile.  Garden going great but groundwater could use a few more 1"+ events in August.

October '96 was a unique scenario of a TC being partially stripping away by a synoptic interaction. 

That system dumped 12"+ at PWM and up to 19" a couple towns to the south.  Forester friend who lives a few miles from Lava Rock said his garden looked better for raising trout than for veggies.

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13 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

we are blowing our load on precip. Winter might be in trouble. Cold and dry?^_^

I hope winter is warm and dry...actually make that hot and dry...very, very, very dry. Dry enough so that there is no need for anyone anywhere on any social media platform to ever have to post a model snowfall map. hot enough and dry enough that images will have to be temperature departure and precipitation departure maps instead. 

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17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I hope winter is warm and dry...actually make that hot and dry...very, very, very dry. Dry enough so that there is no need for anyone anywhere on any social media platform to ever have to post a model snowfall map. hot enough and dry enough that images will have to be temperature departure and precipitation departure maps instead. 

Yeah..it's a like "petty poetic justice" for the posting antics among the marauders of anti summer spin.  You know, those that have such a winter co-dependent, psycho babble need to experience cold and snow, warm, summery tactilities actually causes them pain.  Lol -

Actually, after that Halloween winter of 2012 "finally" ended, and spring came in as it should by mid November that year ... we actually had DJF not too hugely dissimilar to what your hyperbole approaches.   I remember weekend after weekend after weekend with 54 F in tepid sloped sun casting long shadows up snowless fairways doing disk golf with buddies, in cargo shorts and waste-tied-off-sweat shirts because ...it just wasn't cold enough to don them. 

I'm sure there were periods in there of inclement weather ...hell, maybe snow.  But the dominating longer termed appeal was striking enough that we only remember that as the year without a winter - no one wants to even float that sentiment.  Gee I wonder why -

I think it was long about the end of January that year,  "The Onion" had a headline that read essence of the like,  "Rare 32 F temperature strikes Northern New York State" ...with their particular incisive satire in 'breaking news' .

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah..it's a like "petty poetic justice" for the antics of the marauders of anti summer spin.  You know, those that have such a winter co-dependent, psycho babble need to experience cold and snow, warm, summery tactilities actually causes them pain.  Lol -

Actually, after that Halloween winter of 2012 "finally" ended, and spring came in as it should by mid November that year ... we actually had DJF not too hugely dissimilar to what your hyperbole approaches.   I remember weekend after weekend after weekend with 54 F in tepid sloped sun casting long shadows up snowless fairways doing disk golf with buddies, in cargo shorts and waste-tied-off-sweat shirts because ...it just wasn't cold enough to don them. 

I'm sure there were periods in there of inclement weather ...hell, maybe snow.  But the dominating longer termed appeal was striking enough that we only remember that as the year without a winter - no one wants to even float that sentiment.  Gee I wonder why -

I think it was long about the end of January that year,  "The Onion" had a headline that read essence of the like,  "Rare 32 F temperature strikes Northern New York State" ...with their particular incisive satire in 'breaking news' .

Was it 2011 or 2012 when we had the vicious Arctic cold front move through around New Years Day? It was the year when the (then) Connecticut Whale did an outdoor hockey game in East Hartford which was a disaster. I think we actually got several inches of snow as well...don't remember when but I remember it cost them a fortune to remove the snow from the stadium. But I remember the front moving through the day before the game and the day of the game was BRUTAL. High's only in the teens and winds were gusting 30-40+ mph. The period leading up to that high's were 40's and 50's and I think a few days later we were back into that lol. 

 

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46 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

we are blowing our load on precip. Winter might be in trouble. Cold and dry?^_^

 

32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I hope winter is warm and dry...actually make that hot and dry...very, very, very dry. Dry enough so that there is no need for anyone anywhere on any social media platform to ever have to post a model snowfall map. hot enough and dry enough that images will have to be temperature departure and precipitation departure maps instead. 

Good morning. LR/WW. Well done on a summation of the probabilities for a Mid Atlantic cold season. As always ….

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think it interesting that despite all these 10 to 15"  monthly rain total posts there really isn't an ongoing river-out-of-banks scenario throughout the pan -SNE region.  Other than a few incident, transient quick reponder -type tributaries - all we have to show for this 'drama' is the July anomaly of lush green lawn. Call CNN!

It shows how hard it is to actually flood this old geology.   I mean point being, what it takes to 'flood' here.   You need truly absurd things to happen to make it amazing.  Like October 1996, or May 2005 ( Merrimack), or March 2010.   ...or going further back.  1987 ..1930s...etc. They were amazing, but only just -

Easier to get big flooding with dormant vegetation or at least that spring/fall window where stuff isn’t growing at full blast, too.  Mid-summer is definitely harder, but still doable with a tropical storm.

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4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think it interesting that despite all these 10 to 15"  monthly rain total posts there really isn't an ongoing river-out-of-banks scenario throughout the pan -SNE region.  Other than a few incident, transient quick reponder -type tributaries - all we have to show for this 'drama' is the July anomaly of lush green lawn. Call CNN!

It shows how hard it is to actually flood this old geology.   I mean point being, what it takes to 'flood' here.   You need truly absurd things to happen to make it amazing.  Like October 1996, or May 2005 ( Merrimack), or March 2010.   ...or going further back.  1987 ..1930s...etc. They were amazing, but only just -

October '96 was a unique scenario of a TC being partially stripping away by a synoptic interaction. Reminded me on satellite of deep field Astronomy. Some doomed gravity bound star being elongated and pulled into an intake channel, this TC schmuck's guts got dumped over E and SE zones.  I think Winchester had clocked 10" in a single night in that one. 

May 2005 was extraordinary along the Merrimack.  As someone who went to school at UML and I can tell you, the specter of that visage as the water rose so high was gasping. It was certainly never seen before, personally.  I remember the 15 to 22" Pawtucket dam and how that fall- draft was no longer falling water. It had become but a surface dent like a macrocosm of water moving over a boulders in a stream? Same behavior but so much mass you don't exist.  It sort of had that creepy feel to it ... like that scene in "TItanic" in the engine room when the iron piston cinema combined with the audio presentation were so overwhelming.

March 2010 had decent snow-melt-back to snow oscillations through the antecedent months of winter. And then came March.  Actually, technically the onslaught began at the end of February, with a retrograde coastal that rained ...but not as much as the real heavy onslaught, which came in three events 4-6" each spanning three weeks, exquisitely timed with said ground release.  One spectacle that was particularly awesome,  a friend and I were en route to Mohegan Sun in CT. As Rt 13 I think it was ... cut over the top of a pine forest, from that vantage, the entire expanse of forest floor was water tumbling over rocks and old wood detritus. 

Granted, these are in general anecdotal accounting. Just off the top of one's memory.   Each one of these events took place because of exceedingly rare return rate scenarios.  Yet, not many of them did that kind of extra-special damage you see around the world.   It didn't do Europe ( recently ..) for example.  Although I'm sure some offended bloke with a town or backyard impact memory will try to lean a post content against the weight of this statement. But no. Not really.   Not saying it can't happen - but it's like our snow pack thing.  It's very difficult to exceed 36" inches for elevations below say 700 feet.  I have lived all over eastern Mass for the past 35 years, and never have seen the snow pack approach 40" ...and have only seen that once, and 36" occurred twice.  Something always happens to neuter a scenario down. 

We get our big events, but the irony is, the rarest of all, ... probably that 1953 Worcester tornado in the relative scale, is the most extraordinary thing to ever have happened here. Maybe rarer yet ...in 1755 an Earthquake estimated between 6.3 and 6.7 occurred not 20 Mi E of Cape Ann where the Merrimack Valley, which is the surface vestige of supposed dormant fault, plunges into the Atlantic abyss.  That occurred, mind you ..., 150 years before brick and mortar, steal and glass serrated city sky-lines.

 

All those events you mentioned had one thing in common, lack of vegetative uptake and ground cover to slow runoff. Hydrological modeling can now use various stages of forest land growth and antecedent conditions to predict river stages. At URI we were at the forefront of current GIS flood mapping developing tools and equations to make Hydrological modeling more accurate.  Did you know that as late as 1993 modeling did not take into account frozen ground? I was involved with Dr Art Gold in developing new technology to add frozen ground into Hydrological equations. 

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31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Man what a nice airmass behind that front. 69/56 and breezy.

mm, almost wonder.  if we'd spared the region 3" of deluge last night, would this have been 74/52 or even 76/51 with more sun.  That's kind of high dp for that the t measure.   course, you're elevation may play roll - who knows.

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26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm, almost wonder.  if we'd spared the region 3" of deluge last night, would this have been 74/52 or even 76/51 with more sun.  That's kind of high dp for that the t measure.   course, you're elevation may play roll - who knows.

There’s folks thinking dews are going into 30’s and low 40’s tomorrow. 

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