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Hurricane Elsa


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3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The 12z GFS is, ironically, much weaker through the Caribbean than previous runs.

Right off the bat it's initialized at 1002 mb while the NHC has it at 995.  The recon and surface observations weren't input to the 12z run so the 18z should be much more telling.

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It's hard to ignore how big a departure that is from prior runs, but all these operational runs aren't worth much to me yet without additional recon data. I think ensembles still lead the way here in developing a sense of the envelope of possibilities. I'd probably perk up a touch if the HWRF backed way off since it is the best intensity guidance by far, but even then, there's a lot of information still to be gathered by recon regarding Elsa's organization. 

Edit: Latest recon mission is beginning. 

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GFS initialized a bit too weak which could be affecting the less impressive 12z run for Elsa. I wouldn't expect any significant weakening between here and Cuba. Shear looks to be about the same in terms of being unfavorable while SSTs will be a bit warmer. 

gfs_mslp_uv850_watl_2.png

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Don't necessarily think this is representative of the current hurricane intensity, but it's interesting. 

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 16:57Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Name: Elsa
Storm Number: 05 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 03 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 2nd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 13.6N 61.8W
Location: 49 statute miles (79 km) to the NW (308°) from Kingstown, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
Marsden Square: 043 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb -30m (-98 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
997mb (29.44 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 25.3°C (78°F) 65° (from the ENE) 77 knots (89 mph)
925mb 655m (2,149 ft) 21.8°C (71.2°F) 21.6°C (71°F) 90° (from the E) 100 knots (115 mph)
850mb 1,390m (4,560 ft) 19.2°C (66.6°F) 19.2°C (67°F) 115° (from the ESE) 77 knots (89 mph)
700mb 3,049m (10,003 ft) 12.4°C (54.3°F) 11.2°C (52°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 16:33Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 13.61N 61.79W
- Time: 16:34:08Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 13.65N 61.89W
- Time: 16:39:25Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 80° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 97 knots (112 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 110° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 76 knots (87 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 705mb to 995mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 161 gpm - 11 gpm (528 geo. feet - 36 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 75° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 92 knots (106 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 30406
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It is moving WNW @ 29mph, which is fast for this latitude.  Would explain the 50kt difference in windspeed across the eyewall.

 

HWRF is developing a small cat4 between Jamaica and Cuba.  Of course this is highly land interaction dependent.

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Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Rapid intensification continues 

Best look yet I've seen on radar. Still an asymmetrical wind field to say the least, but it looks good on radar and IR and I don't see anything to really slow it down at the moment other than its own forward speed. Probably makes land interaction potential even more important to the eventual outcome early next week.   

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12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Best look yet I've seen on radar. Still an asymmetrical wind field to say the least, but it looks good on radar and IR and I don't see anything to really slow it down at the moment other than its own forward speed. Probably makes land interaction potential even more important to the eventual outcome early next week.   

Since storms typically are more west than the models if they are also more intense wouldn’t this mean that there is technically the possibility of this threading the needle and missing Cuba or almost missing it sending a strong storm at the US? Or am I missing something? At the very least it seems more likely for it to not have as much land interaction due to it probably being more west due to the intensification we are seeing which leads to a stronger storm hitting the US.

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17 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Since storms typically are more west than the models if they are also more intense wouldn’t this mean that there is technically the possibility of this threading the needle and missing Cuba or almost missing it sending a strong storm at the US? Or am I missing something? At the very least it seems more likely for it to not have as much land interaction due to it probably being more west due to the intensification we are seeing which leads to a stronger storm hitting the US.

Yeah, I think a track that west is possible, but I think it's unlikely. Elsa is still going to feel the influence of the trough and seek the weakness along the ridge. I think land interaction is almost a lock, but it matters a lot how that happens. If it pinballs between the mountainous land masses of the Greater Antilles it'll be a shell of itself as it emerges into the Gulf. If it is able to avoid land until western Cuba it could be much stronger. 

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We have a new VDM

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 18:44Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Name: Elsa
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 08 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 17:55:14Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13.75N 62.40W
B. Center Fix Location: 89 statute miles (143 km) to the WNW (297°) from Kingstown, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,070m (10,072ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.33 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 130° at 28kts (From the SE at 32mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 68kts (78.3mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the NE (54°) of center fix at 17:50:18Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 92° at 70kts (From the E at 80.6mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 69 nautical miles (79 statute miles) to the NNW (336°) of center fix at 17:31:45Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 57kts (65.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the ESE (120°) of center fix at 17:57:14Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 164° at 49kts (From the SSE at 56.4mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 67 nautical miles (77 statute miles) to the SSE (147°) of center fix at 18:14:01Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,067m (10,062ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,039m (9,970ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) which was observed 69 nautical miles (79 statute miles) to the NNW (336°) from the flight level center at 16:34:33Z


Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
 

Sur press from dropsonde.
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Quick question, I’ve been following on here for a few years (had to change username couldn’t get into old one) and Storms for 20 years but not a Met.

 

it seems 1-2 times a year we get storms that are forecasted to have a Tampa Bay Area landfall but it has never actually happened. What would it take weather wise for it to happen and is it just random occurrence it hasn’t or is there an actual reasoning behind based off the location. Final part of the question, what could make Elsa the Cane to finally break the seal so to speak. 

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Can anyone explain what is going on in the 12z Euro?  It looks like Elsa gets strung out between Cuba and the Bahamas but then regroups off the Keys and then continues into the Gulf.  

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30 minutes ago, Dbullsfan22 said:

Quick question, I’ve been following on here for a few years (had to change username couldn’t get into old one) and Storms for 20 years but not a Met.

 

it seems 1-2 times a year we get storms that are forecasted to have a Tampa Bay Area landfall but it has never actually happened. What would it take weather wise for it to happen and is it just random occurrence it hasn’t or is there an actual reasoning behind based off the location. Final part of the question, what could make Elsa the Cane to finally break the seal so to speak. 

Primarily geographic location relative to typical Atlantic/Gulf TC tracks. Last major to hit was 1921, there’s some good analysis on the variables that keep the region out of the direct bullseye for most cyclones.

We don’t need a hurricane per se to have a significant impact, see Eta from last year.  A low end hurricane landfalling in northern Pinellas would do a lot of damage across TB, and a major would be devastating.

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1 hour ago, Dbullsfan22 said:

Quick question, I’ve been following on here for a few years (had to change username couldn’t get into old one) and Storms for 20 years but not a Met.

 

it seems 1-2 times a year we get storms that are forecasted to have a Tampa Bay Area landfall but it has never actually happened. What would it take weather wise for it to happen and is it just random occurrence it hasn’t or is there an actual reasoning behind based off the location. Final part of the question, what could make Elsa the Cane to finally break the seal so to speak. 

I'd assume late September and October would be prime season for TPA, steering generally from the West would take late season storms towards TPA.  Earlier in the season, storms will be tending to parallel Florida, making a direct landfall harder.  I suspect closer to perpendicular, more significant surge.

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1 hour ago, Dbullsfan22 said:

Quick question, I’ve been following on here for a few years (had to change username couldn’t get into old one) and Storms for 20 years but not a Met.

 

it seems 1-2 times a year we get storms that are forecasted to have a Tampa Bay Area landfall but it has never actually happened. What would it take weather wise for it to happen and is it just random occurrence it hasn’t or is there an actual reasoning behind based off the location. Final part of the question, what could make Elsa the Cane to finally break the seal so to speak. 

It's been a lot of luck for us. Charlie was on track to hit Tampa Bay with a historic storm surge, but cut east at Port Charlotte suddenly only a few hours before we thought it was to hit us. So many people jammed the bridges to escape to go to Orlando for safety and once they arrived exhausted were hit harder than if they stayed here on the beaches.

Countless times we've been in the center of the cone two days out, then a shift saves us. Irma was predicted to come right up over our house in Gulfport less than 12 hours before it made landfall south of us. Whew, yet a lot of us we were still without power for weeks after it went straight up the state. But what a relief it did not come up Tampa Bay as full steam ahead!

There is no real reason why it misses Tampa Bay as a direct hit, it is luck and how the dice lands. We've had several Tropical Storms go directly over us after being hurricanes, so we are not blocked. Just lucky.

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