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Hurricane Elsa


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No rest for the weary, as the end of June looks more reminiscent of mid August with 97L on track to become our fifth named storm of the season. With four already named, 2021 is in rarefied air with regard to the pace of TC genesis. 

Although the NHC provides 60% two day odds, the trend over the last 24 hours suggests that 97L may already be on its way to TD status. 

6WmXSS2.png

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is 
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the 
Windward Islands.  This system is producing a large area of showers 
and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization. 
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few 
days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph.  
Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely 
monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region 
on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

 

97L has a few things in its favor that 95L, the other once vigorous wave to its west, did not. First, it is developing further south, in a much more favorable environment with regard to instability and moisture. As you can see, it is south enough to stay (mostly) away from the influence of the SAL, which isn't terribly strong to begin with relative to what we've seen in past years at this time. That said, the northern envelope of the wave borders the drier environment and as a result things are a little less convectively active on the northern side (though still fairly robust as you'll see below). 

D7S8fZA.jpg

 

The second thing is the lack of wind shear. This has allowed for gradual convective organization. The path ahead toward the Lesser Antilles looks pretty clear. In fact, it's quite amazing that we don't see more TUTT influence but that's probably too deep a dive to go into right now. 

53uA535.gif

 

Now, all that said, look at the potential environment ahead. As Windspeed noted yesterday, TC genesis is one thing, it's another thing getting through the Caribbean "Graveyard" this time of year. Trades are strong in the Caribbean this time of year and that's a significant factor in why some of the guidance although bullish in the short term, are not as bullish once 97L reaches the Caribbean. There's also the potential for land interaction, but that's for another post. 

Overall, the environment in this part of the MDR is unusually conducive for development, and aided by a gradually warming SST environment to the west, low wind shear, and a potential CCKW to enhance convection, 97L is likely to develop over the next few days if current trends hold. From there, we will see if there's a path for survival in the Caribbean and potential long range threat to the US in the next 7--10 days. 

giphy.gif?cid=790b76110ba18ca0e6664eb8ad

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Basing on latest ASCAT pass depicting 35kt winds, as well as recent visible satellite imagery depicting what appears to be a developing LLC i'm guessing that NHC will start issuing advisories on this thing fairly soon. They *could* name it if they want, since vis sat does seem to indicate at least some weak westerlies at the surface (indicating the presence of an LLC), but ASCAT says that we do not yet have a true LLC -- so they'll probably stick with the "PTC" label if/when they do issue the initial advisory. 

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area
and tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands have become better organized since yesterday.
However, recent satellite wind data indicates that the disturbance
does not have a well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions
appear generally favorable for continued development, and a tropical
depression or storm is likely to form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress
of this system, as advisories on a potential tropical cyclone,
accompanied by tropical storm watches for portions of this area, are
likely to be issued later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


.

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
500 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that the convection associated with the 
low pressure area over the central tropical Atlantic is becoming 
better organized.  However, earlier scatterometer data showed that 
the circulation was elongated and not well defined.  Since the 
system is about 48 h away from the Lesser Antilles and is expected 
to become a tropical storm before reaching the islands, advisories 
are being initiated at this time on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. 
The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the scatterometer 
data and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion is 285/18.  The disturbance is currently on the 
south side of a strong subtropical ridge, and for the next 72 h the 
system  should move rapidly west-northwestward.  Indeed, the forward 
speed may exceed 25 kt as the system moves through the Lesser 
Antilles.  There is excellent agreement in the guidance on this 
part of the forecast track.  After 72 h, the system is expected to 
approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough 
over the eastern United States.  The should cause the system to slow 
its forward speed and turn more northwestward.  The track guidance 
become more diverse during this time in regards to how far north 
the system will turn, and this part of the NHC forecast track is 
most similar to the GFS and UKMET forecasts.  Note that the track 
forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system does not yet 
have a well-defined center.

The disturbance is currently in a favorable upper-level wind 
pattern.  However, most Atlantic systems in this area moving near 25 
kt have trouble strengthening, and there are indications that the 
fast forward speed may produce some westerly shear.  Thus, the NHC 
intensity forecast for the first 72 h is near the lower edge of the 
intensity guidance.  After 72 h, the intensity forecast becomes 
highly uncertain due to possible land interaction and differences in 
the model forecasts of the upper-level winds.  This portion of the 
NHC intensity forecast maintains a constant 50-kt intensity due to 
the level of uncertainty.

Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching 
the Lesser Antilles and tropical storm conditions are possible 
beginning Friday in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward 
Islands. 

2. Heavy rainfall will move quickly across the Windward and southern 
Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday.  Isolated flash 
flooding and mudslides are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of the 
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos 
and the southeastern Bahamas through early next week, although the 
forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system does not have 
a well-defined center. Interests in these areas should monitor the 
system's progress and updates to the forecast. 

4. Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for 
this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts 
could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range 
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z  9.6N  43.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  01/0600Z 10.2N  46.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  01/1800Z 11.1N  51.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 12.4N  56.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 13.8N  61.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  03/0600Z 15.4N  66.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 17.0N  70.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 20.0N  77.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
120H  05/1800Z 22.5N  81.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Beven has a high degree of uncertainty on intensity mainly due to the strong easterly flow that will be kicking hard as this system traverses the Caribbean. A potential motion of 22-25 kts is screaming. That being said, if PTC 5 develops faster in the short term and increases intensity potential for the Lesser Antilles, it could maintain itself within that fast embedded flow. Anything from a weak TS to a Cat 2 by the time this is south of Haiti. So yes, a very problematic intensity forecast for now.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Beven has a high degree of uncertainty on intensity mainly due to the strong easterly flow that will be kicking hard as this system traverses the Caribbean. A potential motion of 22 kts is screaming. That being said, if PTC 5 develops faster in the short term and increases intensity potential for the Lesser Antilles, it could maintain itself within that fast embedded flow. Anything from a weak TS to a Cat 2 by the time this his south of Haiti. So yes, a very problematic intensity forecast for now.

Another thing to watch is the afternoon convection across FL and GOM states.

There has been persistent trough axis across FL and GOM last week or so.

So the ridging can only push this but so far west, before the easterly flow gives up.

The stronger and faster this develops can make a huge difference too.

It could slide up the EC of FL or somewhere over the eastern Gulf/West.

 

I have a feeling 2020's younger brother wants to play this year too.

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19 minutes ago, Prospero said:

OK, I'll be watching and checking models every six hours for the next few days. Great fun! But not so fun that I want to board up windows on my birthday July 6 here in Tampa Bay.

image.thumb.png.5a8427c0ad2b8691043f0fca6cf520a9.png

Let’s just hope this doesn’t hamper the rescue efforts for that collapsed building in Miami.

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5 minutes ago, GreekWeatherGod95 said:

Let’s just hope this doesn’t hamper the rescue efforts for that collapsed building in Miami.

It's been wet in Florida for a few days. That's not good for the rescue effort, but if there are survivors in the rubble some cool rain water can be life saving. A tropical storm or hurricane would be a nightmare, and I wouldn't trust the rest of the condo building to stand up to any strong winds.

image.thumb.png.fe73003cac6e7b9865ff251adfd1de50.png

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2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

their is no rescue it's a recovery mission now..

I didn't wanna say it, but yeah. I have a feeling it was similar to the World Trade Center. The way the condo pancaked. Add in the heat, the fires, the amount of time. It's very sad. The recovery forces are working as fast as they can, but I have a bad feeling.

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The next few days will be telling, as other guidance keeps PTC 5 intact heading into the Gulf while the Euro/EPS kill it and keep whatever destroyed vorticity east of the US. 

NHC chose the non-euro camp but it can’t be understated how uncertain the longer term future is for this system. If it gets to the western Caribbean it may very well find another favorable window before being turned by the trough.

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Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
1100 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021

The satellite presentation of the system over the last 6-12 hours
has continued to gradually improve, with a prominent banding feature
to the west of the estimated center. An ASCAT-A pass received at
2323 UTC revealed that the low-level circulation has become a bit
better defined compared to earlier today, though still somewhat
elongated to the south and west. The peak wind retrievals from this
instrument were 30-32 kt. While subjective satellite estimates
from TAFB and SAB were a bit higher, the latest estimated intensity
was held at 30 kt for this advisory in agreement with the slightly
lower scatterometer data.

The initial motion has accelerated a bit tonight at 280/20
kt. A strong subtropical ridge is situated poleward of the tropical
depression and this feature should steer the system quickly to the
west-northwest over the next several days. After 72 hours, the
tropical cyclone will reach the westward extent of the ridge and
begin to move more poleward and slow down as the ridge also becomes
eroded by a mid-latitude trough to over the eastern US. The track
guidance in the latter portion of the forecast continues to exhibit
large spread, with the GFS and HWRF/HMON models along the left side
of the guidance envelop, while the ECMWF and its ensemble mean
on the right side. The latest NHC track forecast is a shade right
of the previous one, and also slightly faster, but given the spread
in the models, the latter portion of the track is more uncertain
than usual.

While the depression is currently in a favorable environment of low
vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and high
mid-level relative humidity, the expected acceleration in forward
motion could cause the system to outrun the favorable upper-level
easterlies currently overhead, after 36 hours. In addition, the
system could be near or over some of the Greater Antilles in the 
latter portions of the forecast. For these reasons, the intensity 
remained capped at 50 kt after 36 hours, and is still on the lower 
end of the intensity guidance suite, though this forecast could be 
somewhat conservative.


Key Messages:

1. The tropical depression is expected to become a tropical storm
before reaching the Lesser Antilles and tropical storm conditions
are expected beginning late Thursday night in portions of the 
Windward and southern Leeward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall will move quickly across the Windward and southern
Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday.  Isolated flash
flooding and mudslides are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos
and the southeastern Bahamas through early next week. Interests in 
these areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the 
forecast.

4. Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for
this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts
could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z  9.6N  46.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 10.5N  49.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 11.7N  54.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 13.0N  59.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 14.7N  65.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  03/1200Z 16.5N  69.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 18.3N  73.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 96H  05/0000Z 20.9N  78.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
120H  06/0000Z 24.5N  82.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown
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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

No.
4768d3ceb180c50af1eabbfa3ed976c1.gif

Very healthy storm via satellite.

Wouldn't be surprised this gets a name today, especially if recon goes out.

Looking at the models track wise... Very similar to Irma. Strength wise they're all over the place.

Euro being the outlier.

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