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Morning thoughts...

It will be partly cloudy and warmer today. A shower is still possible. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most places today.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 77°

Newark: 83°

Philadelphia: 83°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.3°; 15-Year: 84.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.6°; 15-Year: 87.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.5°; 15-Year: 88.1°

The rise in temperatures will continue tomorrow and a brief period of hot weather is likely Tuesday and Wednesday.

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Much improved and its a quick transition back to a Florida-style pattern.  Warmer today in  out of clouds and periods of mostly sunny conditions should yield temps low 80s / 70s along the beaches.  Slight chance of showers mainly after 5 PM as last piece of the ULL moves through, but i think its ok for fireworks and bbqs.  Monday the 5th low to mid and perhaps a few stray upper 80s and flow goes wSW and we warm up.   

Tue (7/6) and Wed (7/7) SW flow and pieces of the western heat spilles east into the area, perhaps another shot at the century mark for EWR/LGA - likely an outside chance but very hot mid and upper 90s.  Look for some storms Wed (7/7)evening.    Thursday  /more humid by way of ssw flow and pop up showers / storms but warm.  Friday (7/9) and Saturday (7/10) looks stormy as Elsa tracks just south of the area and front is enhanced.

Sunday 7/11 and beyond - Western Atltantic ridge expands back along the east coast with a similar projected / forecasted progression as was the case ahead of the late June (last week) ridge.  Overall warm to hot but plenty of Florida-style humidity and storms.

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, in July 1993, on the 2nd, didn't we have a cool rainy day similar to this one?  I believe the high/low was 66/62.....and a week later we were baking in one of the greatest heatwaves the area has ever seen and a record hot summer with 39 90 degree days and 3 days at 100 or above!

Yes, it was cool with a high of 69 before the extreme heat arrived. 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, in July 1993, on the 2nd, didn't we have a cool rainy day similar to this one?  I believe the high/low was 66/62.....and a week later we were baking in one of the greatest heatwaves the area has ever seen and a record hot summer with 39 90 degree days and 3 days at 100 or above!

a couple such occasions in the midst of that hot month.  2011 had one too but none stayed below 70 for highs

EWR

7/2/1993: 74/68 (1.50)

7/26/1993: 76/68 (0.41)

 

7/3/2011: 76/72 (0.29)

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Do we have something similar going in the opposite direction (from a cool day to a 100 degree high)?

In the opposite direction, this was the 5th coolest July daily maximum temperature at LGA. None of the top 5 had a 100° day occurrence near the date. The closest would be 1941 but it came up just short.

Almanac for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
June 30, 2021
Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest
Max Temperature 100 85 100 in 2021 66 in 1967

 

Almanac for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
July 3, 2021
Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest
Max Temperature 67 86 107 in 1966 67 in 2021
Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Max Temperature 
Min Max Dates
1 1978 62 7-4…62…7-6….85
- 1956 62 7-6….62…7-2…94
2 1941 64 7-4….64…7-2…98
3 1972 65 7-5…65…7-2….72
- 1964 65 7-9….65….7-1….97
4 2005 66 7-8….66…7-11….92
5 2021 67 6-30…100….7-3…67
- 1961 67 7-15….67…7-18…89
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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

In the opposite direction, this was the 5th coolest July daily maximum temperature at LGA. None of the top 5 had a 100° day occurrence near the date. The closest would be 1941 but it came up just short.

Almanac for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
June 30, 2021
Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest
Max Temperature 100 85 100 in 2021 66 in 1967

 

Almanac for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
July 3, 2021
Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest
Max Temperature 67 86 107 in 1966 67 in 2021
Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Max Temperature 
Min Max Dates
1 1978 62 7-4…62…7-6….85
- 1956 62 7-6….62…7-2…94
2 1941 64 7-4….64…7-2…98
3 1972 65 7-5…65…7-2….72
- 1964 65 7-9….65….7-1….97
4 2005 66 7-8….66…7-11….92
5 2021 67 6-30…100….7-3…67
- 1961 67 7-15….67…7-18…89

Can you provide a link to where you find this info? TYIA

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The Euro has more +20 C 850 mb temps Tuesday and Wednesday. It will be interesting to see if the smoke is thick enough to prevent more 100° readings. Tough to tell how much if any influence it will have on our temperatures.

AF14F1A3-FD94-4BD5-9B84-F091379D050A.thumb.png.616aca7d99268dc356197e69fa23b743.png
6AAD23B6-ADE5-41AE-98AD-E1BCEB8303AB.thumb.png.cdf5ec777996b808d9210db284ed2b2a.png

 

 

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Tomorrow will be partly sunny and noticeably warmer. There could be a brief push of very warm air into the region for Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures rising into the 90s in parts of the area.

Out West, there are growing model indications that another above to much above normal regime could set up over parts of the West, including the Southwest. The height of the next round of warmth could occur during the weekend and early next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +15.02 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.279 today.

On July 2 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.266 (RMM). The July 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.270 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

 

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20 hours ago, bluewave said:

In the opposite direction, this was the 5th coolest July daily maximum temperature at LGA. None of the top 5 had a 100° day occurrence near the date. The closest would be 1941 but it came up just short.

Almanac for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
June 30, 2021
Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest
Max Temperature 100 85 100 in 2021 66 in 1967

 

Almanac for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
July 3, 2021
Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest
Max Temperature 67 86 107 in 1966 67 in 2021
Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Max Temperature 
Min Max Dates
1 1978 62 7-4…62…7-6….85
- 1956 62 7-6….62…7-2…94
2 1941 64 7-4….64…7-2…98
3 1972 65 7-5…65…7-2….72
- 1964 65 7-9….65….7-1….97
4 2005 66 7-8….66…7-11….92
5 2021 67 6-30…100….7-3…67
- 1961 67 7-15….67…7-18…89

Wouldn't it be funny if LGA hit or got close to 100 on Tuesday?  You could have two extreme swings a few days apart at the same location!

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Morning thoughts...

It will be mostly sunny and warmer today. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most places today.  Some upper 80s are possible. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 84°

Newark: 88°

Philadelphia: 89°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.4°; 15-Year: 84.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.7°; 15-Year: 87.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.6°; 15-Year: 88.3°

Tomorrow and Wednesday will be hot days. 

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I heard JFK set  a new record low this morning (I mean yesterday morning now lol) at 59!

Is  a low of 59 or lower rare there in July too?

They are slightly more common at JFK than Central Park right now, but as SSTs warm in the long-term, that difference will probably disappear. Select statistics follow:

Central Park:
Number of <60F lows in July since 2000: 7
Most recent: July 3, 2021
Second most recent: July 8, 2009

1971-00: 0.9 days per year
1981-10: 0.7 days per year
1991-20: 0.4 days per year

JFK Airport:
Number of <60F lows in July since 2000: 9
Most recent: July 4, 2021
Second most recent: July 18, 2018

1971-00: 0.8 days per year
1981-10: 0.7 days per year
1991-20: 0.5 days per year

P.S. The final low at Central Park was 60.

 

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After a fabulous fourth its a trip back into the frying pan after today.  Today a splendid summery day sunshine (outside some high smoke) and highs in the mid and upper 80s.  Frying pan Tue and Wed as piece of the western heat spills east over the area.  850 temps >18c - 21C.  Depending on smoke from the fires, as others have been discussin LGA and EWR and other spots could see the century mark Tue (7/6) - Wed (7/7). Cue Sonny and Cher the Heat goes on.

 

Watching the tropics and exact track of Elsi,  some storms enhanced Thu and Fri (7/9).  Otherwise very humid.   

 

Season of the Western Atlantic Ridge comes back in the 7/10  and beyond  595 DM forecast along the coast by next Monday (7/12).

 

Overall warm to hot, with routine storms (Florida - style) pattern marches on.  

 

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The latest EPS weeklies have an active storm track the next few weeks. So it’s possible that the 103°at Newark last week won’t get surpassed for a while. Sometimes it can be tough to rival a heatwave once a pattern becomes wetter.

July 5-12

6FD86437-2856-4030-B1FD-93CD86D1DF60.thumb.png.63f5c73a91dfaa60808966732d61a4dc.png
 

July 12-19

E5A71C6D-3122-4E89-867D-E7F76CC3D65B.thumb.png.34800f75f3e8d90bb3b6c256071d9238.png

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The latest EPS weeklies have an active storm track the next few weeks. So it’s possible that the 103°at Newark last week won’t get surpassed for a while. Sometimes it can be tough to rival a heatwave once a pattern becomes wetter.

July 5-12

6FD86437-2856-4030-B1FD-93CD86D1DF60.thumb.png.63f5c73a91dfaa60808966732d61a4dc.png
 

July 12-19

E5A71C6D-3122-4E89-867D-E7F76CC3D65B.thumb.png.34800f75f3e8d90bb3b6c256071d9238.png

With the exception of tomorrow and Wednesday which will be in the mid/upper 90's the NWS has mostly upper 80's temps for the area for the next several days with the chance of showers and thunderstorms almost everyday. We will have to see how Elsa impacts us late week i.e. late Thursday and Friday. But overall it appears warm and wet for the foreseeable future.

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7 hours ago, SACRUS said:

After a fabulous fourth its a trip back into the frying pan after today.  Today a splendid summery day sunshine (outside some high smoke) and highs in the mid and upper 80s.  Frying pan Tue and Wed as piece of the western heat spills east over the area.  850 temps >18c - 21C.  Depending on smoke from the fires, as others have been discussin LGA and EWR and other spots could see the century mark Tue (7/6) - Wed (7/7). Cue Sonny and Cher the Heat goes on.

 

Watching the tropics and exact track of Elsi,  some storms enhanced Thu and Fri (7/9).  Otherwise very humid.   

 

Season of the Western Atlantic Ridge comes back in the 7/10  and beyond  595 DM forecast along the coast by next Monday (7/12).

 

Overall warm to hot, with routine storms (Florida - style) pattern marches on.  

 

that 595 DM pattern equates to what kind of temps along the coast Tony.....mid 90s?

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51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The latest EPS weeklies have an active storm track the next few weeks. So it’s possible that the 103°at Newark last week won’t get surpassed for a while. Sometimes it can be tough to rival a heatwave once a pattern becomes wetter.

July 5-12

6FD86437-2856-4030-B1FD-93CD86D1DF60.thumb.png.63f5c73a91dfaa60808966732d61a4dc.png
 

July 12-19

E5A71C6D-3122-4E89-867D-E7F76CC3D65B.thumb.png.34800f75f3e8d90bb3b6c256071d9238.png

Thats what I wanted to ask you Chris, do you think the 102-103 there Jun 29-30 was the peak hit of the summer?  Since it happened at the tail end of June, it was basically July weather starting a day or two early.  Or do you think we have prospects of beating that kind of heat later in the month (say around July 20th or later?)  Speaking specifically for JFK and coastal areas.

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