Bubbler86 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 8 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: I said as much earlier - I have no clue what I'm talking about, but that's my gut feeling as well. Then again, all it takes is one tropical shower/storm and we get 1" in 30 minutes, so there's that. I still think lots of PA sees quite a bit of rain....some have already. Not the actual system as much as moisture being wrung out by the trough. Looks like Lancaster county has several reports (east and west) over 1" now from a more stratiform though tropical like moisture flow. If the models that loop it back (GFS, HRR, Nam now) are correct we could see some real impressive totals even West of the Susq where there is already some 1/2-3/4" totals as well. Some may have two days of fairly solid rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Flood Watch National Weather Service State College PA 508 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 PAZ058-059-066-222100- /O.EXT.KCTP.FA.A.0003.210822T1100Z-210823T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Schuylkill-Lebanon-Lancaster- Including the cities of Pottsville, Lancaster, and Lebanon 508 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... The Flood Watch is now in effect for * A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Lancaster, Lebanon and Schuylkill. * Through Monday morning. * Bands of slow-moving heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with the western edge of deep tropical moisture from Hurricane Henri will occur across the watch area today and tonight. Several rounds of heavy rainfall with rates in excess of 2 inches per hour will elevate the threat for flooding of poor drainage areas, along with small streams and creeks. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected by 8 am Monday. Localized flash flooding may occur in areas experiencing longer durations of heavy rain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ Lambert/Steinbugl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Flood Watch National Weather Service State College PA 508 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 PAZ058-059-066-222100- /O.EXT.KCTP.FA.A.0003.210822T1100Z-210823T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Schuylkill-Lebanon-Lancaster- Including the cities of Pottsville, Lancaster, and Lebanon 508 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... The Flood Watch is now in effect for * A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Lancaster, Lebanon and Schuylkill. * Through Monday morning. * Bands of slow-moving heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with the western edge of deep tropical moisture from Hurricane Henri will occur across the watch area today and tonight. Several rounds of heavy rainfall with rates in excess of 2 inches per hour will elevate the threat for flooding of poor drainage areas, along with small streams and creeks. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected by 8 am Monday. Localized flash flooding may occur in areas experiencing longer durations of heavy rain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ Lambert/Steinbugl Lancaster in a good band now. I’ll take 1/2” over a 12 hour period to soak in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 So far, as of 8:15am, we have 0.40" in the gauge... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Lancaster in a good band now. I’ll take 1/2” over a 12 hour period to soak in If the low backs in to just above PA in S/E NY State I think the orientation of the forcing on the trough could adjust to get over you or I tonight or Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 23 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I almost spit out my morning coffee when I just read in the Tropical Storm Henri New England thread this post from our old friend Eskimo Joe. “Yup. Lots of early "storm cancel" posts here in this thread.” He is the king of early storm cancel every year….unbelievable! He just cancelled tropical season for the MA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 GFS going bonkers with the low 90's next week.....7 days in a row at MDT. Not fully supported by anything yet though the EC implies similar for at least 5 of the days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS going bonkers with the low 90's next week.....7 days in a row at MDT. Not fully supported by anything yet though the EC implies similar for at least 5 of the days. Yeah, this “back end of August will be hot” prediction will unfortunately be true. Unfortunate because I don’t want heat, but also unfortunate because as I recall, it came from Joe Bastardi and that means he’ll be right on something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Yeah, this “back end of August will be hot” prediction will unfortunately be true. Unfortunate because I don’t want heat, but also unfortunate because as I recall, it came from Joe Bastardi and that means he’ll be right on something. 700th post on this thread and mentioning JB. He does not deserve it. JB called for a heat wave. Not sure he will get that but its not going to be cool and with a 1.8 degree lead already, MDT is almost assured of coming in above average for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 700th post on this thread and mentioning JB. He does not deserve it. JB called for a heat wave. Not sure he will get that but its not going to be cool and with a 1.8 degree lead already, MDT is almost assured of coming in above average for the month. Does JB use the antiquated “three days of 90 degrees or above” definition of a heatwave, or the official WMO definition? If it’s the former, then it’s well within the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Does JB use the antiquated “three days of 90 degrees or above” definition of a heatwave, or the official WMO definition? If it’s the former, then it’s well within the realm of possibility. Not sure what he uses but I was using the 5 days at least 9 over average....that would be 5 days in a row breaking 93-94 at MDT. I agree that they probably do break 90 3 days in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Not sure what he uses but I was using the 5 days at least 9 over average....that would be 5 days in a row breaking 93-94 at MDT. I agree that they probably do break 90 3 days in a row. Yeah, I don’t think 5 days in a row of 93+ is in the cards at MDT. It becomes a more interesting case for me, as the average high here is 81, which would mean a high of 90 Tues-Sat. I don’t think that’s out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Just now, TimB84 said: Yeah, I don’t think 5 days in a row of 93+ is in the cards at MDT. It becomes a more interesting case for me, as the average high here is 81, which would mean a high of 90 Tues-Sat. I don’t think that’s out of the question. Something to keep an eye on with interest albeit disdain as well... I guess. If I were to guess right now, for MDT, I think we have a day where it does not clear our all that well and temps are held back. I know better than to try and forecast in your area without experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Something to keep an eye on with interest albeit disdain as well... I guess. If I were to guess right now, for MDT, I think we have a day where it does not clear our all that well and temps are held back. I know better than to try and forecast in your area without experience. The experience seems to be, we often underperform when forecast to hit 90 or 91, and overperform when forecast to hit 78 or 79. So that tells you everything you need to know. Getting to 90+ 5 days in a row here is hard, even in the middle of July. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 9 hours ago, canderson said: Also going on a limb and saying MDT gets less than .2” through Monday night. Think the storm moves east and the rain shield is to small to reach LSV. MDT already has .34 as of 9 am… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: MDT already has .34 as of 9 am… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 49 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS going bonkers with the low 90's next week.....7 days in a row at MDT. Not fully supported by anything yet though the EC implies similar for at least 5 of the days. Let’s hope not… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Lol…Front street in Harrisburg already…! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Let’s hope not… Definitely not. Not a forecast just a model discussion. it's out on its own limb right now with that extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol…Front street in Harrisburg already…! Canderson was out on that limb after a few drinks in Ardmore last night. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Definitely not. Not a forecast just a model discussion. it's out on its own limb right now with that extreme. I see what you did there… lol… I know it’s not a forecast or anything… I just dread 90 degree temperatures. At least it’s only 9 days until September! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 MDT already has .34 as of 9 am…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Flash Flood Watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 10 hours ago, canderson said: Also going on a limb and saying MDT gets less than .2” through Monday night. Think the storm moves east and the rain shield is to small to reach LSV. I don’t remember posting this so it doesn’t count. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 I was pleasantly surprised to see .6” in the gauge this morning. A nice light soaking rain continuing with no real end in sight. So it looks like no hurricane landfall for New England. Do my eyes deceive me or is Henri about to make landfall soon as a TS near Rhode Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I was pleasantly surprised to see .6” in the gauge this morning. A nice light soaking rain continuing with no real end in sight. So it looks like no hurricane landfall for New England. Do my eyes deceive me or is Henri about to make landfall soon as a TS near Rhode Island? What??? Wow..., only .14" here. I'm in a hole between you and MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 10 minutes ago, canderson said: I don’t remember posting this so it doesn’t count. I said as much completely sober, so I am dishing up some crow for lunch. Even though I'm still below .2" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: What??? Wow..., only .14" here. I'm in a hole between you and MDT. The radar looks like somewhat heavier rain is approaching your historic district soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 20 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The radar looks like somewhat heavier rain is approaching your historic district soon. JUST south of me - heard thunder to my south but no rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: What??? Wow..., only .14" here. I'm in a hole between you and MDT. Yeppers. Wife claims we had a potent T'storm roll through during the early morning hours but I slept right through it. Just had another heavy shower hit us a bit ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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