Itstrainingtime Posted August 20, 2021 Author Share Posted August 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, paweather said: Biggest Run until every winter storm coming up on the EURO. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: On TT go to Hurricane, HMON then pick the storm (Henri). WOW, hour 60 and we aren't done yet. * It does pull away at 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: WOW, hour 60 and we aren't done yet. ABE takes the hit. HWRF is going for LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: ABE takes the hit. HWRF is going for LI. Yep. ABE takes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Yep. ABE takes it. That model would make Voyager happy though by that point its surly just a windy/rainy day. If it starts stalling/looping then game on for big issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: That model would make Voyager happy though by that point its surly just a windy/rainy day. If it starts stalling/looping then game on for big issues. No doubt if it were to stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, paweather said: No doubt if it were to stall. UKIE qpf totals (probably undone as usual with a TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: UKIE qpf totals (probably undone as usual with a TS Yep and will the EURO follow little brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 39 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 15.11" to be exact in my gauge from Lee. Wednesday was my birthday, went out for dinner with my wife and didn't make it home that night. I had 10.62" fell here on that day. Ouch, that's a birthday you won't soon forget. So, what did you and your wife end up doing that night? Not to get too graphic ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 20, 2021 Author Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Ouch, that's a birthday you won't soon forget. So, what did you and your wife end up doing that night? Not to get too graphic ha. Spent the night at my parent's house outside Mount Joy. Got from Lancaster to Mount Joy, but every creek between there and Maytown was flooded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Spent the night at my parent's house outside Mount Joy. Got from Lancaster to Mount Joy, but every creek between there and Maytown was flooded. 15 more pages to 200...your name is going to live in infamy of PA Summer threads. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 hour ago, paweather said: Biggest Run of the Century coming up on the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, paweather said: North. Big shift west from 0Z. 80-100 miles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Big shift west from 0Z. 80-100 miles. yep, thats into Dauphin county now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, sauss06 said: yep, thats into Dauphin county now. Rain wise it gets back into West Central PA on Monday AM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 hour ago, TimB84 said: Not saying I’m buying what the 3k NAM is selling, but that is a monster. Verbatim your 80 streak would end 8 days from now on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Verbatim your 80 streak would end 8 days from now on the GFS. Yeah, that GFS run looked better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 20, 2021 Author Share Posted August 20, 2021 I've read a lot of opinions on Henri from mets to weenies, all saying that a stronger storm will mean a west track, a weaker storm will be further east. Models today are insistent on a farther west track but are depicting a weaker storm despite that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I've read a lot of opinions on Henri from mets to weenies, all saying that a stronger storm will mean a west track, a weaker storm will be further east. Models today are insistent on a farther west track but are depicting a weaker storm despite that. They are changing up the parameters a bit and the storm is being pulled back more than previously forecast...IMO its moving faster and catching the ULL to the north at a further west spot. It cannot be long until someone says Fujiwara. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 20, 2021 Author Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: They are changing up the parameters a bit and the storm is being pulled back more than previously forecast...IMO its moving faster and catching the ULL to the north at a further west spot. It cannot be long until someone says Fujiwara. Yes, it does look like with the earlier timing it's getting captured and tugged west, which makes sense. A weaker AND slower storm will (should) track further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 12 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Yeah, that GFS run looked better. I think we atr stuck in 80's much for a week or more...some low 90's over here. Nothing overly hot but no wagon rides or corn mazes just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I think we atr stuck in 80's much for a week or more...some low 90's over here. Nothing overly hot but no wagon rides or corn mazes just yet. Might help keep my wife from putting up Halloween decorations ridiculously early. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I think we atr stuck in 80's much for a week or more...some low 90's over here. Nothing overly hot but no wagon rides or corn mazes just yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Might help keep my wife from putting up Halloween decorations ridiculously early. LOL. Not going to stop Walmart from having a corner full of wrapping and tree decorations. They may already be out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: LOL. Not going to stop Walmart from having a corner full of wrapping and tree decorations. They may already be out. That’s a little different from having Halloween decorations in my house on September 2nd. (She does wait a little longer on the outside ones.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 20, 2021 Author Share Posted August 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Might help keep my wife from putting up Halloween decorations ridiculously early. Walt Disney World started that process the first week of August. No lie. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Walt Disney World started that process the first week of August. No lie. I can even deal with that, given that it’ll still be well into the 80s there in October, so it’ll never really feel like Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 48 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Spent the night at my parent's house outside Mount Joy. Got from Lancaster to Mount Joy, but every creek between there and Maytown was flooded. I hear ya. If Chickies Creek floods wildly like it did for that event I have no way into Mount Joy. I can't take Route 23 to try and loop around from the west, can't take any backroads from the south, cant take 230 or 772 in from the east......nothing. That happened to us one other time in July of 2018 when we got like 4" one night and the next morning my wife and I were supposed to take the train from Mount Joy to Philly for the Phillies game, had no idea how bad things were and quickly realized we couldn't drive into Mount Joy as it was blocked in all directions from Chickies flooding. We had to panic drive to the Lancaster City station and luckily just barely made it there to catch the train. Good times. Here was my write-up for that period.... Five day period of on and off downpours brought about by a stalled upper level inverted trough that fed deep tropical moisture into the area on strong S to SSE winds and long fetch off the Chesapeake. Event total was 8.3". Nearly 4" fell Tuesday night leading to bad flooding on Chiques that cutoff Mt. Joy in nearly all directions. We had to get to Philles game and rushed to take train from Lancaster. Hardest hit areas were W Schuylkill and N Lebanon/Dauphin Counties with 12-16" widespread. Swatara flooded badly hitting second highest levels ever near Hershey and Middletown. See below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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