paweather Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I hear ya. If Chickies Creek floods wildly like it did for that event I have no way into Mount Joy. I can't take Route 23 to try and loop around from the west, can't take any backroads from the south, cant take 230 or 772 in from the east......nothing. That happened to us one other time in July of 2018 when we got like 4" one night and the next morning my wife and I were supposed to take the train from Mount Joy to Philly for the Phillies game, had no idea how bad things were and quickly realized we couldn't drive into Mount Joy as it was blocked in all directions from Chickies flooding. We had to panic drive to the Lancaster City station and luckily just barely made it there to catch the train. Good times. Here was my write-up for that period.... Five day period of on and off downpours brought about by a stalled upper level inverted trough that fed deep tropical moisture into the area on strong S to SSE winds and long fetch off the Chesapeake. Event total was 8.3". Nearly 4" fell Tuesday night leading to bad flooding on Chiques that cutoff Mt. Joy in nearly all directions. We had to get to Philles game and rushed to take train from Lancaster. Hardest hit areas were W Schuylkill and N Lebanon/Dauphin Counties with 12-16" widespread. Swatara flooded badly hitting second highest levels ever near Hershey and Middletown. See below. Hummelstown was under water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Seeing some more sun around the area....might lead to a lot of popcorn cells going into the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I can even deal with that, given that it’ll still be well into the 80s there in October, so it’ll never really feel like Halloween. Using Trainings "No Lie" comment, it snowed in Ocala in October 2006....no lie. Flurries but still. Only one hour north of Mickey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Using Trainings "No Lie" comment, it snowed in Ocala in October 2006....no lie. Flurries but still. Only one hour north of Mickey. Wait, hold up a minute. It snowed in Ocala, Florida in October?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, TimB84 said: Wait, hold up a minute. It snowed in Ocala, Florida in October?! Yes. It did not accumulate.....it was in the 40's.....8PMish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Wait, hold up a minute. It snowed in Ocala, Florida in October?! It snowed again in November 2006 and that was officially recorded at some recording stations. The snow I saw in October was not but it was real. I was out playing tennis under the lights and it was COLD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It snowed again in November 2006 and that was officially recorded at some recording stations. The snow I saw in October was not but it was real. I was out playing tennis under the lights and it was COLD. I remember that being an incredibly cold month in Madison, WI (where I was at the time). Data backs that up. Could see how one of those arctic fronts could blast into Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: I remember that being an incredibly cold month in Madison, WI (where I was at the time). Data backs that up. I am frankly not sure where to get data for OCF temps but if you find it you should see some lows in the 40's (or maybe even upper 30's) in October 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 It's pretty gross out. Hurry up, October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I am frankly not sure where to get data for OCF temps but if you find it you should see some lows in the 40's (or maybe even upper 30's) in October 2006. At your service. Ocala, October 2006: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: At your service. Ocala, October 2006: Thanks, so I am guessing it was the 24th but could have been 29th. Typical Ocala. Even when it gets cold at night, it still heats up during the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 13 minutes ago, TimB84 said: At your service. Ocala, October 2006: The group surely groans when I pull this pic out every year (or really any post) , but I guess now is the time for 2021. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 20, 2021 Author Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I hear ya. If Chickies Creek floods wildly like it did for that event I have no way into Mount Joy. I can't take Route 23 to try and loop around from the west, can't take any backroads from the south, cant take 230 or 772 in from the east......nothing. That happened to us one other time in July of 2018 when we got like 4" one night and the next morning my wife and I were supposed to take the train from Mount Joy to Philly for the Phillies game, had no idea how bad things were and quickly realized we couldn't drive into Mount Joy as it was blocked in all directions from Chickies flooding. We had to panic drive to the Lancaster City station and luckily just barely made it there to catch the train. Good times. Here was my write-up for that period.... Five day period of on and off downpours brought about by a stalled upper level inverted trough that fed deep tropical moisture into the area on strong S to SSE winds and long fetch off the Chesapeake. Event total was 8.3". Nearly 4" fell Tuesday night leading to bad flooding on Chiques that cutoff Mt. Joy in nearly all directions. We had to get to Philles game and rushed to take train from Lancaster. Hardest hit areas were W Schuylkill and N Lebanon/Dauphin Counties with 12-16" widespread. Swatara flooded badly hitting second highest levels ever near Hershey and Middletown. See below. Great writeup, I have vivid memory of every route that I traveled that night (and the following day) only to come across flooded roadways. It took me just under 2 hours the next morning to make what is normally 20 minutes to get to work. I'll never forget Lee. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 20, 2021 Author Share Posted August 20, 2021 Also, I know Henri won't reach an environment conducive to intensification until later, but it is looking rather sad on visible satellite right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Also, I know Henri won't reach an environment conducive to intensification until later, but it is looking rather sad on visible satellite right now. If Newman were here he would deliver this message Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 20, 2021 Author Share Posted August 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 20, 2021 Author Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If Newman were here he would deliver this message LOL, some New York weenie talked smack on Newman about rain totals in the Catskills a few hours ago, only to find out that Newman was right (of course) and said weenie was wrong... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Enjoy your FFW. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 47 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I'm rooting for the circled cluster of lows . So the CCB can sit over N.Md + SC Pa I'd take that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 20, 2021 Author Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Enjoy your FFW. LOL Interestingly enough, WPC, which seems to be overly generous on rain totals, isn't expecting really significant rains anywhere close to us: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Interestingly enough, WPC, which seems to be overly generous on rain totals, isn't expecting really significant rains anywhere close to us: Yea, that seems a bit too far east. We shall see. Nam 12 and 3K (with its Cat 4 still) tuck Henri near LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Hopefully continues to pull west! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, that seems a bit too far east. We shall see. Nam 12 and 3K (with its Cat 4 still) tuck Henri near LI. 12K Nam doesn't do much for us. :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 hour ago, paweather said: 12K Nam doesn't do much for us. :-( He appears to be wound tight. Not much in the way of a precipitation shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 hour ago, paweather said: 12K Nam doesn't do much for us. :-( So you are saying there's a chance? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 hour ago, paweather said: 12K Nam doesn't do much for us. :-( It’s a tiny storm. Any wind are gonna be super compact. This is a rain issue for SNE more than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 You don’t see a Hurricane Warning for Long Island too often. This will be interesting to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: And we still don't know the exact interaction Henri will undergo with the ULL. It's a low chance but the ULL could capture Henri sooner and pull it further west which would also help pin wheel the remnant low further sw after landfall putting our general area in some hefty downpours Yeah I'm wondering that too. It really depends on how strong Henri gets. If it gets stronger it'll be tugged to the west a bit more. Curious how much rain we get over here though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 10 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said: Yeah I'm wondering that too. It really depends on how strong Henri gets. If it gets stronger it'll be tugged to the west a bit more. Curious how much rain we get over here though The extended Hrrr is right there for the taking...Not stronger but tugged west. Of course it's the extended Hrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 0z Hrrr looks like that RGEM run this morning. ULL captures Henri much sooner then the globals. Consolidates even better then that Rgem run lol. Verbatim nice rains for the area buttttttt.... Its longggggg range hrrrrrrrrr. Ninjd It's over 5" in East PA and no where near done at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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