Central PA - Summer 2021

[Itstrainingtime]

18 minutes ago, paweather said:

Everyone is fighting these days it seems. Rams/Raiders joint practice there was a brawl yesterday. 

Mmmm, this is such a loaded comment that could spark a very longwinded and probably not asked for response. Let's just say that yes, you are right, and yes, we're probably thinking a lot of the same things...

[Mount Joy Snowman]

40 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Good stuff.  Maybe we are getting dust devils in PA now?   With the wind direction I saw from my basement on Wed I am sure we had something rotating near us (probably elevated) at one point. 

Who doesn't love a good dust devil!?  I spotted a potent little couplet on the velocity radar near Mountville the other night and notified some friends in the area but not sure what became of it.

 

21 minutes ago, paweather said:

Everyone is fighting these days it seems. Rams/Raiders joint practice there was a brawl yesterday. 

Football is in the air!!! 

[paweather]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Mmmm, this is such a loaded comment that could spark a very longwinded and probably not asked for response. Let's just say that yes, you are right, and yes, we're probably thinking a lot of the same things...

LOL. I know when I said Everyone seems to be fighting, well I did mean the NFL. 

[TimB]

27 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Mmmm, this is such a loaded comment that could spark a very longwinded and probably not asked for response. Let's just say that yes, you are right, and yes, we're probably thinking a lot of the same things...

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/feeling-hot-can-fuel-rage/

[Itstrainingtime]

8 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/feeling-hot-can-fuel-rage/

Interesting read, thank you for sharing! 

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, paweather said:

Everyone is fighting these days it seems. Rams/Raiders joint practice there was a brawl yesterday. 

Maybe someone saw the QB's face mask and yelled at him to take it off and it went from there.   :-)

[Mount Joy Snowman]

15 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/feeling-hot-can-fuel-rage/

Haha interesting read.  However, be leery of confounding variables with stuff like this.  In this case, the confounding variables would be people's proximity to one another , or better yet, total interactions amongst individuals.  For instance, it's highly unlikely the people in cold and wet environments are any less angry or prone to conflict than those in hot and dry ones (in fact probably the opposite haha); rather, people in hot and dry climates are able to interact with each other more, whereas the folks in the cold and wet environment spend much more of their time sitting crankily in their homes.  Less interactions equals less opportunities for conflict, hence the conclusions reached in the article.  Now, in cases where civilizations were quite literally fighting for survival due to cataclysmic drought or something to that effect, then yes conflict would clearly be more likely.  Otherwise, I'm not inclined to believe that the people of Buffalo are any less ornery than the people of Arizona or southern California   But good stuff nonetheless. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Haha interesting read.  However, be leery of confounding variables with stuff like this.  In this case, the confounding variables would be people's proximity to one another , or better yet, total interactions amongst individuals.  For instance, it's highly unlikely the people in cold and wet environments are any less angry or prone to conflict than those in hot and dry ones (in fact probably the opposite haha); rather, people in hot and dry climates are able to interact with each other more, whereas the folks in the cold and wet environment spend much more of their time sitting crankily in their homes.  Less interactions equals less opportunities for conflict, hence the conclusions reached in the article.  Now, in cases where civilizations were quite literally fighting for survival due to cataclysmic drought or something to that effect, then yes conflict would clearly be more likely.  Otherwise, I'm not inclined to believe that the people of Buffalo are any less ornery than the people of Arizona or southern California   But good stuff nonetheless. 

I feel a lot better this AM being in a wet environment for once.    People in Buffalo get most upset when you point out that the majority of their snow is fake. 

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Haha interesting read.  However, be leery of confounding variables with stuff like this.  In this case, the confounding variables would be people's proximity to one another , or better yet, total interactions amongst individuals.  For instance, it's highly unlikely the people in cold and wet environments are any less angry or prone to conflict than those in hot and dry ones (in fact probably the opposite haha); rather, people in hot and dry climates are able to interact with each other more, whereas the folks in the cold and wet environment spend much more of their time sitting crankily in their homes.  Less interactions equals less opportunities for conflict, hence the conclusions reached in the article.  Now, in cases where civilizations were quite literally fighting for survival due to cataclysmic drought or something to that effect, then yes conflict would clearly be more likely.  Otherwise, I'm not inclined to believe that the people of Buffalo are any less ornery than the people of Arizona or southern California   But good stuff nonetheless. 

Absolutely correct. I don’t think heat is the biggest part of that equation, or even top 10. Pretty sure Africa and the Middle East aren’t the way they are exclusively or even mostly due to heat.

[Bubbler86]

The 3K does have several smallish lines of storm coming at the LSV from the S/E tomorrow and tomorrow night.  

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

Can I wish that TS west with a stall over New Jersey. I need some excitement in my life, and listening to Judas Priest break the law ain't cuttin' it... 

[canderson]

We are planning to to go Ardmore tomorrow for brunch and a Trader Joe's haul ... any guesses on what we could expect say from noon - 3 p.m. in that area? 

[paweather]

15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

And we get zilch. Hope it continues to come further west. 

[Bubbler86]

13 minutes ago, paweather said:

And we get zilch. Hope it continues to come further west. 

Most of the Eastern half of the state gets some rain from Henri now with it being that close to the coast.  Showery stuff....the thing is, Henri is just now starting to intensify.    How many years and times do we have to go through and remember that our models are terrible at forecasting intensification.  If it was a Cat 3 or Cat 4 in 12-18 hours, no one should be surprised.   A stronger storm could tighten up the rain field and put less of PA in the wet....a sloppy storm and we could be seeing bands back to Ohio. 

[Bubbler86]

I think anyone from OC, MD up to SNE should be on high alert.  Several models are now bringing it into SNJ or CNJ.  I remember Hurricane Charley, in 2004, was modeled and "destined" to send Tampa Bay back to the stone ages and over a matter of 4 hours, he said  "Yoink" and took a hard right and destroyed Punta Gorda. 

[paweather]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think anyone from OC, MD up to SNE should be on high alert.  Several models are now bringing it into SNJ or CNJ.  I remember Hurricane Charley, in 2004, was modeled and "destined" to send Tampa Bay back to the stone ages and over a matter of 4, he said  "Yoink" and took a hard right and destroyed Punta Gorda. 

Should be fun to watch.

 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

Should be fun to watch.

 

You were getting a little bored yesterday :-) 

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

You were getting a little bored yesterday :-) 

Yep. LOL. 

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

You were getting a little bored yesterday :-) 

Can't wait for the days staying up for the overnight EURO runs! 

[TimB]

31 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Most of the Eastern half of the state gets some rain from Henri now with it being that close to the coast.  Showery stuff....the thing is, Henri is just now starting to intensify.    How many years and times do we have to go through and remember that our models are terrible at forecasting intensification.  If it was a Cat 3 or Cat 4 in 12-18 hours, no one should be surprised.   A stronger storm could tighten up the rain field and put less of PA in the wet....a sloppy storm and we could be seeing bands back to Ohio. 

I’m not a hurricane expert, but wouldn’t Henri’s current location and projected path make rapid intensification a bit more difficult? That said, all kinds of hurricanes have rapidly intensified in recent years, so you can never rule anything out.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, paweather said:

Can't wait for the days staying up for the overnight EURO runs! 

Kuch or No Kuch....road temps....did new data get ingested at 18Z....PBP....its all just around the corner.   LIke I mentioend a few days ago, Summer is done in the 'VIlle.   Does not matter what temps get to at any point, fall is setting up camp. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, TimB84 said:

I’m not a hurricane expert, but wouldn’t Henri’s current location and projected path make rapid intensification a bit more difficult? That said, all kinds of hurricanes have rapidly intensified in recent years, so you can never rule anything out.

I guess that is my point.  It seems that no matter what we think we know about them, they do what they want and frequently defy what we consider to be logic but what is actually ignorance.   But its current location is still well within the Gulf Stream so its not in the Caribbean but its still getting fuel. 

[TimB]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I guess that is my point.  It seems that no matter what we think we know about them, they do what they want and frequently defy what we consider to be logic but what is actually ignorance.   But its current location is still well within the Gulf Stream so its not in the Caribbean but its still getting fuel. 

And that’s the fun in it. As I’ve said before, this hobby will suck someday when we as a human race make it less uncertain.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

And that’s the fun in it. As I’ve said before, this hobby will suck someday when we as a human race make it less uncertain.

Is that a hidden jab at Climate Change making it hot all the time?  Ha

[TimB]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Is that a hidden jab at Climate Change making it hot all the time?  Ha

No, that was actually a comment on science and technology advancing. But I fully enjoy that interpretation.

[TimB]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Is that a hidden jab at Climate Change making it hot all the time?  Ha

(But also, it could be argued that climate change would make weather more uncertain, at least in the short run.)

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

(But also, it could be argued that climate change would make weather more uncertain, at least in the short run.)

Absolutely.  Climate change can make the water colder and air colder (for a while), more 'Canes, more of anything really...or less of anything.  But your posts frequently require a bit of discernment so I wanted to double check! 

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Half day today ...eff it lol.

RGEM has the ULL really lasso in henri's energy and totally consolidates it . Some Eps members agree . Would surely deluge eastern Pa if it goes down this way. 

 

 

48 hour qpf

 

We have been discussing that this AM. Eastern Pa is definitely "in play" for flooding rains right now.   May not transpire but would not be a total surprise.  The QPF map you posted is an extreme surprise though.  LOL.   The SNE thread is doing all they can to ignore it.  

[TimB]

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Absolutely.  Climate change can make the water colder and air colder (for a while), more 'Canes, more of anything really...or less of anything.  But your posts frequently require a bit of discernment so I wanted to double check! 

Hidden messages in any of my posts? Never!

[paweather]

8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Half day today ...eff it lol.

RGEM has the ULL really lasso in henri's energy and totally consolidates it . Some Eps members agree . Would surely deluge eastern Pa if it goes down this way. 

 

48 hour qpf

WOW, That would hammer us.