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Central PA - Summer 2021


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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not the most reliable as of late but enough to warrant a comment, that is one fearsome line heading due south of the 3K.  Limited effects on the LSV but this would be a newsmaker in that form.  So definitely going to be an interesting watch day tomorrow with a signal like that.

 

image.thumb.png.3a99e365d3168e754d4945b35895d17a.png

That is intense! WOW.

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This is from Mount Holly AFD, they mention that morning convection or cloud debris could make tomorrow a non-event (especially for eastern areas). So, that'll be the wild card as is typically the case in high-end severe events around here. If we can have the MCS/derecho forming in the upper midwest tonight clear out of the region early AND we can limit any morning convection associated... tomorrow will be the best day yet this year in terms of severe storm chances. I'm already thinking about chasing out in Adams/York/Cumberland/Perry counties tomorrow

With those caveats mentioned, the dynamics on Thursday are no doubt
impressive, unlike any we`ve seen this year in terms of the
potential overlap of instability, shear, and forcing if everything
comes together right. 28.0z CAM guidance largely clobbers the region
with severe convection Thursday afternoon and evening, but run-to-
run consistency has been poor. Should several of those 0z CAM
solutions (i.e. 3km NAM, ARW) and their associated forecast
soundings come to pass, then a significant severe weather event with
all severe hazards would be likely. The Storm Prediction Center has
added a Slight Risk of severe weather over much of the region. Feel
that is very reasonable at this stage, and highly recommend
referencing the SWODY2 discussion for additional information. We
should stress again that confidence in the details of the Thursday
forecast is low, but encourage all users to monitor the forecast due
to both the uncertainty and the higher than normal potential threat
level if all factors were to come together
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Unfortunately what the 6z had....the nooner 12k Nam just UN nam'd us.  Kpit does the best while the energy headed towards Rouzerville goes poof like a popcorn fart right over his head.  

 

3k looks decent with almost a squall line kinda look.  Based on CTP's disco, no doubt looks like something worth watching as the dynamics are going to be there.

 

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5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Unfortunately what the 6z had....the nooner 12k Nam just UN nam'd us.  Kpit does the best while the energy headed towards Rouzerville goes poof like a popcorn fart right over his head.  

 

3k looks decent with almost a squall line kinda look.  Based on CTP's disco, no doubt looks like something worth watching as the dynamics are going to be there.

 

The 6Z Nam was a big ole zero here as well. 

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Whatever happens or doesn't happen tomorrow, the weather following looks incredible. And unlike typical summer fronts, instead of having a nice day or perhaps two, it looks like a nice string of days to close out July and start of the dog days. 

Saturday's high near 80. That is awesome!

 

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14 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Unfortunately what the 6z had....the nooner 12k Nam just UN nam'd us.  Kpit does the best while the energy headed towards Rouzerville goes poof like a popcorn fart right over his head.  

 

3k looks decent with almost a squall line kinda look.  Based on CTP's disco, no doubt looks like something worth watching as the dynamics are going to be there.

 

It's a waiting game until we see what happens in Michigan, really. Conditions aren't ripe on their own, need that to cooperate to see anything severe. 

It's tough to wait lol

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6 minutes ago, canderson said:

It's a waiting game until we see what happens in Michigan, really. Conditions aren't ripe on their own, need that to cooperate to see anything severe. 

It's tough to wait lol

When it comes to severe, I can wait until the end of time. :) 

For those that are fans, enjoy the "hunt" tomorrow. 

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37 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes we are, but 90 might be a reach today...currently at 84 here. Sort of surprised it's not warmer. 

Yeah I’m only at 84 as well despite full sun all day, although there are plenty of cotton balls starting to form in the sky now. I’m thinking it’s that slight northerly breeze component that is keeping things in check. 

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29 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yeah I’m only at 84 as well despite full sun all day, although there are plenty of cotton balls starting to form in the sky now. I’m thinking it’s that slight northerly breeze component that is keeping things in check. 

 

20 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

83. and at lunch i said the same to a coworker.

I find it really pleasant outside  

I just walked across campus here at work, and you're right - there is a very noticeable northerly breeze out there. It feels much better than I expected. 

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1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

GFS is back to spitting out a different look beyond 7 days with every run. It had a nice consistent look going for awhile.

Much more zonal, ridge type long and fantasy term.  Did not see any over the top temps but some hot days in a quick scan.   But nothing like the 6Z which was nothing like 0Z just like you mentioned.  Something larger scale that I am not seeing must be adjusting it each time. 

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Much more zonal, ridge type long and fantasy term.  Did not see any over the top temps but some hot days in a quick scan.   But nothing like the 6Z which was nothing like 0Z just like you mentioned.  Something larger scale that I am not seeing must be adjusting it each time. 

I would assume that’s the case. But it’s not really a surprise when the GFS makes massive run to run changes beyond D7, so I have no desire to really look too far into it. If it were a pattern shift from a cold, snowy pattern in winter to a torch pattern, I might be more tempted to look at the details.

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1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

GFS is back to spitting out a different look beyond 7 days with every run. It had a nice consistent look going for awhile.

Goofus back to living up to its moniker.  Well I'll be a monkey's uncle, just checked the station and it appears I hit 89 earlier today, likely not gonna reach 90 but 'twas a close call after all, aint it @Itstrainingtime

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