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June, 2021 Discussion


Typhoon Tip
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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

the severe threat is really just secondary. All I really want is just active summer in terms of thunderstorms...thunderstorms which offer nice shelf clouds and lots of lightning. If there happens to be hail or high winds...that's just a bonus. Although internal moisture does increase when thinking and hoping for these phenomena 

The upshot of a failing historic heat ridge:  there could be more in the way TCU/ photogenic convection during the torrid days next week, because the "cap" of the ridging is weaker;  less CIN when it's just above normal heights, and not an actually 'heat dome' - such that the models are leaning now.  

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still a long shot any given season.

Especially here...it's much better across NY/PA and then across northern New England given their closer proximity to fronts/shortwaves and the better dynamics which typically resides across southern Canada during the summer. I think northern New England is extremely underrated in terms of severe weather potential during the summer. 1) Lack of population so many events go unreported; 2) there is still sketchy radar coverage throughout the region, 3) they often get into better overlap of CAPE/dynamics. I would wager outside of PA/NY VT/NH/ME are the better spots for severe in the Northeast

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The upshot of a failing historic heat ridge:  there could be more in the way TCU/ photogenic convection during the torrid days next week, because the "cap" of the ridging is weaker;  less CIN when it's just above normal heights, and not an actually 'heat dome' - such that the models are leaning now.  

This is an excellent point. This is why I am super intrigued in the period. It doesn't appear we will be dealing with a strong cap. there have also been subtle hints at some EML plumes working our way...which *makes sense* given we may be on the southern periphery of the westerlies but as I alluded too earlier...when you're dealing with plumes as opposed to large-scale EML air...it gets very dicey trying to time then with appropriate features (fronts, s/w)

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14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still a long shot any given season.

Not that you ask - but last year in a small region here along Rt 2, we had a fantastic severe season compared to standard thunderstorm day climo for this region.

I counted 8 warned events, 4 of which verified with timbre and power outages. Vicious wind events and at least one warning was a tornado that was ultimately classified as a microburst.

Then during August dog days, we had several days with really interesting local CB events.  Sun next to sharp edged crispy TCUs ..with single rain shaft thunder bolt claps. They were like micro CBs, the fun ones that float passed golf courses lol.  But no we had decent year last year in N. Worc/Middlesex CO as a 'get lucky' area I guess.

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11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Especially here...it's much better across NY/PA and then across northern New England given their closer proximity to fronts/shortwaves and the better dynamics which typically resides across southern Canada during the summer. I think northern New England is extremely underrated in terms of severe weather potential during the summer. 1) Lack of population so many events go unreported; 2) there is still sketchy radar coverage throughout the region, 3) they often get into better overlap of CAPE/dynamics. I would wager outside of PA/NY VT/NH/ME are the better spots for severe in the Northeast

Yea, I mean there.

Agree regarding NNE.

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Still looks hot to me. GFS/EC op both have pockets of 18/19C 850s over the region...so potentially some mid 90s in the hot spots. Mid week def looks like the wildcard to see if we knife a trough in and maybe backdoor some cooler temps.

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Still looks hot to me. GFS/EC op both have pockets of 18/19C 850s over the region...so potentially some mid 90s in the hot spots. Mid week def looks like the wildcard to see if we knife a trough in and maybe backdoor some cooler temps.

Yes please.

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Still looks hot to me. GFS/EC op both have pockets of 18/19C 850s over the region...so potentially some mid 90s in the hot spots. Mid week def looks like the wildcard to see if we knife a trough in and maybe backdoor some cooler temps.

Me too :)  very warm anyway. 

To the straw man - I guess  - I was just opining that the "historic" aspect has been wiped, if temporarily, all but removed from possibilities.

I'm also a big fan of trend.  When there is a four day trend in every sourced ens mean to balloon, then it suddenly stops and collapses, even if just a little bit, particularly beyond D4 ( which this technically still is),  I get a nervous that it was all one of those setup - back-stabber patterns. 

It may come back. It could just be 'slosh' run.  We'll see. But this heat wave seemed to max in the virtual sense, in the models, about 1.5 days ago.  And ever since, the technology suite seems to almost be laying precedence' for how it is going to back out of it. Lol

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Still looks hot to me. GFS/EC op both have pockets of 18/19C 850s over the region...so potentially some mid 90s in the hot spots. Mid week def looks like the wildcard to see if we knife a trough in and maybe backdoor some cooler temps.

I agrees.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Me too :)  very warm anyway. 

To the straw man - I guess  - I was just opining that the "historic" aspect has been wiped, if temporarily, all but removed from possibilities.

I'm also a big fan of trend.  When there is a four day trend in every sourced ens mean to balloon, then it suddenly stops and collapses, even if just a little bit, particularly beyond D4 ( which this technically still is),  I get a nervous that it was all one of those setup - back-stabber patterns. 

It may come back. It could just be 'slosh' run.  We'll see. But this heat wave seemed to max in the virtual sense, in the models, about 1.5 days ago.  And ever since, the technology suite seems to almost be laying precedence' for how it is going to back out of it. Lol

What day is Kevin's 100/75?

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Still looks hot to me. GFS/EC op both have pockets of 18/19C 850s over the region...so potentially some mid 90s in the hot spots. Mid week def looks like the wildcard to see if we knife a trough in and maybe backdoor some cooler temps.

Over the top heat is a thing now.

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In fairness to Brian's observation, +18C at 850 mb in a decent d-slope/well mixed high sun sky can still get you into big heat in the hover T over your front yards, but the margin for error is like zip.  One parametric failure in that profile and it's just annoyingly warm.  heh

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More quantifiable .. the EPS mean is bunching the geopotential height anomaly more W now. It is opting for more meridian flow around the circumvallate of it, too - which is not good for the longevity, nor the areal layout of impact ( or 'good' depending on what one wants). 

The previous guidance means were more longitude, with 590+ heights nearly squarely located on climate for delivery here.  These recent, however subtle trends, are not as impressive in either of those X or Y coordinate attributes.  

- also this Maritime cold air jet thing up there is bullying into model cycles, too. 

I will say that the GEFs -derived NAO and PNA don't support that as much. Not sure what the EPS derivatives do, but since they tend to always just mimic the operational there's no point in even paying for them.

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

More quantifiable .. the EPS mean is bunching the geopotential height anomaly more W now. It is opting for more meridian flow around the circumvallate of it, too - which is not good for the longevity, nor the areal layout of impact ( or 'good' depending on what one wants). 

The previous guidance means were more longitude, with 590+ heights nearly squarely located on climate for delivery here.  These recent, however subtle trends, are not as impressive in either of those X or Y coordinate attributes.  

- also this Maritime cold air jet thing up there is bullying into model cycles, too. 

I will say that the GEFs -derived NAO and PNA don't support that as much. Not sure what the EPS derivatives do, but since they tend to always just mimic the operational there's no point in even paying for them.

There is certainly a backdoor signal on both the GFS/Euro for mid-to-late week (somewhere in that period). It's not a very strong signal and don't think it would be a strong front but something that could result in 70's along NE coast and 80's inland as opposed to 90's. Very possible too the strong sun angle/eating ends up mixing the boundary out as it moves inland given it doesn't appear to be very strong. 

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26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There is certainly a backdoor signal on both the GFS/Euro for mid-to-late week (somewhere in that period). It's not a very strong signal and don't think it would be a strong front but something that could result in 70's along NE coast and 80's inland as opposed to 90's. Very possible too the strong sun angle/eating ends up mixing the boundary out as it moves inland given it doesn't appear to be very strong. 

mmm     I dunno -

I've lived too long in this butt canal cursed region of the planet for that.  That  ' not a very strong signal' typically means clearing your calendar for a mandatory shut out event that steals 2.5 days of fisting march back into this region.

That was why the previous guidance was more encouraging.  The escape trajectories off the continent were more progressive out there next week. Now it's all scaffolding a NW ablation ...okay we'll see.

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59 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Still looks hot to me. GFS/EC op both have pockets of 18/19C 850s over the region...so potentially some mid 90s in the hot spots. Mid week def looks like the wildcard to see if we knife a trough in and maybe backdoor some cooler temps.

It’s an absolute furnace Kenny Rogers roaster from Saturday thru next Friday. Couple days look like solid middle 90’s with dews 

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21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Some of those individual 00Z members of the GEF carrying on with potent hurricane Gulf to Bahamas out in la-la 300+

How long can Miami to WPB avoid a cat 4-5 landfall...and Key west 
 

Broward And Palm beach are going on like 5 decades of luck . Miami as well . 
 

Yes we know Andrew hit 30 years ago  and cleared a 5 x 25 mile path in Homestead and the Everglades to their west.

Its just wild how many 4-5’s steam roll central and NW  Bahamas and dont effect Florida with more than cat 1 gusts

 

 

 

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Long range EPS has been consistent in showing potential activity in the western Caribbean or Gulf during that period too. There’s a window there.

I’d favor development in the western Caribbean right now given the SSTs and Climo but that’s speculation this far out. 
 

40 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

How long can Miami to WPB avoid a cat 4-5 landfall...and Key west 
 

Broward And Palm beach are going on like 5 decades of luck . Miami as well . 
 

Yes we know Andrew hit 30 years ago  and cleared a 5 x 25 mile path in Homestead and the Everglades to their west.

Its just wild how many 4-5’s steam roll central and NW  Bahamas and dont effect Florida with more than cat 1 gusts

 

 

 

It’s obviously not to the same extent as getting a strike in New England, but you kinda need to hit on a narrow set of possible steering patterns to get a Miami or thereabouts direct impact. 

If we’re talking about the most likely heading for an impact—due west or wnw—you’d need either a stout ridge over the top in place or one building. Easier said than done. Especially if we’re talking about September or October IMO when any trough could erode a ridge. Other ways could do it I suppose (due north from the Caribbean I guess) but I think that’s an even longer shot.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dews up to 64 now. Mid week delivery right on schedule. A week plus from today thru end of next week. Feels so awesome out there today . Already noticing extra wiping needed and TP usage up. Love it !

Was sitting in my car and lunch and I could feel the humidity rising. This is what we live for

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

How long can Miami to WPB avoid a cat 4-5 landfall...and Key west 
 

Broward And Palm beach are going on like 5 decades of luck . Miami as well . 
 

Yes we know Andrew hit 30 years ago  and cleared a 5 x 25 mile path in Homestead and the Everglades to their west.

Its just wild how many 4-5’s steam roll central and NW  Bahamas and dont effect Florida with more than cat 1 gusts

 

 

 

Andrew, '92 devastated the southern burrows of Miami/Dade County tho.   Also, Charley and Frances on the west coast of the Penn. wrought havoc to Cat 4...so I don't know - I think getting down to Broward and Palm Beach discrete level is just getting more difficult for trying to hit a bullseye - their being missed in 5 decades may not be that usual at that scope and scale.  Florida as a "regional" scope is doing just fine.   2004 was a bad year there... And other years, like Wilma ...at least got them action. 

I'm not sure what the return rate of > Cat 3 hurricanes are down to discrete scales, tho.  Maybe Palm Beach is supposed to be denuded off the face of the planet regularly every 30 years and they are over do to be erased - lol

 

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