weatherfreeeeak Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 What’s the euro showing for next weekend? GFS is rainy, CMC isn’t showing much. Having an outdoor party, hoping this time we skip out on the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 On 6/18/2021 at 7:39 AM, bluewave said: Yeah, the Dust Bowl was an early example of humans altering the Great Plains climate through land degradation. We had a big hand in the magnitude of the record heat. Now we are cooling the region through our farming practices. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16676-w Here we show, using an atmospheric-only model, that anomalously warm North Atlantic SSTs enhance heatwave activity through an association with drier spring conditions resulting from weaker moisture transport. Model devegetation simulations, that represent the wide-spread exposure of bare soil in the 1930s, suggest human activity fueled stronger and more frequent heatwaves through greater evaporative drying in the warmer months. This study highlights the potential for the amplification of naturally occurring extreme events like droughts by vegetation feedbacks to create more extreme heatwaves in a warmer world. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/america-s-corn-belt-making-its-own-weather The Great Plains of the central United States—the Corn Belt—is one of the most fertile regions on Earth, producing more than 10 billion bushels of corn each year. It’s also home to some mysterious weather: Whereas the rest of the world has warmed, the region’s summer temperatures have dropped as much as a full degree Celsius, and rainfall has increased up to 35%, the largest spike anywhere in the world. The culprit, according to a new study, isn’t greenhouse gas emissions or sea surface temperature—it’s the corn itself. This is the first time anyone has examined regional climate change in the central United States by directly comparing the influence of greenhouse gas emissions to agriculture, says Nathan Mueller, an earth systems scientist at the University of California (UC), Irvine, who was not involved with this study. It’s important to understand how agricultural activity can have “surprisingly strong” impacts on climate change, he says. the corn and also this unfortunate practice of chopping down forests to make room for grazing. We have deforestation going on big time especially in the south and middle of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 5 hours ago, SACRUS said: 6/19 EWR: 93 LGA: 91 PHL: 90 BLM: 89 TEB: 89 JFK: 89 NYC: 88 New Brnswck: 88 ISP: 88 ACY: 88 TTN: 87 89 ugh if we had a little more sun we'd hit 90 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 12 hours ago, forkyfork said: beast of a WAR on the euro humid not very hot heat or an actual heat wave with westerly winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 11 hours ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see if the late June WAR can link up with the Rockies Ridge in July. Maybe after July 15th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 75degs.(66/84), or about Normal. Month to date is 72.8[+2.4]. Should be about 73.4[+1.7] by the 28th. 66*(85%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 68* at 7am. Reached 81* at 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Today should see more sunshine than Saturday and more widespread 90s, in some cases day 2 of a 3 day potential short heatwave. More of the same on Monday with some of the warmer places perhaps hitting the mid 90s with enough clearing and 850MB temps >18c. Cold front will bring storms on Tuesday (6/22) with drier/ more normal temps Wed (6/23) - Thu (6/24). Beyond there Miami weather on southerly winds as the Western Atlantic RIdge builds west Fri (6/25) - end of June extending along the coast. Need to see the placement and how far westward this can expand. Should it not come as west it will be a very wet, humid period. Right now iECM is pushing the ridge far enough west that areas west see most of the rain associated with a sort of hung up front. July - looking in the way beyond longer range guidance has the front clearing the coast with heights rebuilding into the East. That rockies ridge may fire back up and we will need to see the next pulse west of the Western Atlantic Ride. Overall warm / humid pattern that can put up decent rain amounts on scattered storms (Miami like) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly cloudy and very warm. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 80s in most places. A few places could reach 90°. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 87° Newark: 92° Philadelphia: 90° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 81.1°; 15-Year: 81.0° Newark: 30-Year: 83.4°; 15-Year: 83.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 84.7°; 15-Year: 84.9° Tomorrow could see somewhat more clouds as Claudette passes well south of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 High for the day yesterday was 91 here. Current temp 78/DP 64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 For future reference. when the July Fourth WE is upon us Will the GFS be a heel or a star? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Wet period coming up on the GFS starting next week. Hopefully its wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Current temp here 81/DP 64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Current temp 87/DP 70 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Reached 88° here earlier...winds shifted to se, down to 83°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Mount Holly has similar thoughts. Upton: Friday could be interesting meteorologically speaking. Global models are beginning to depict a broad low pressure system near North Carolina forming off the decaying front from earlier in the week. This inverted trough rides the synoptic flow north nearing Long Island Friday. With it precipitable water values increase to around 1.5-1.7 inches. Depending on the nature of the system and its proximity, southern New York could see increased rain chances for Friday. Attention shifts over the weekend to the trough and frontal system deepening near the Ohio River valley. This could be a fairly a traditional frontal system with CAPE values around 500-1000 J/kg and unidirectional shear meaning that strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible. The exact timing remains uncertain, but current guidance is hinting towards a Sunday into Monday timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Wet period coming up on the GFS starting next week. Hopefully its wrong. 18z GFS said get the ark ready 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 High for the day was 90 here. Current temp 87/DP 68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 38 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: 18z GFS said get the ark ready Your not kidding. Knowing the GFS it will probably be bone dry at 00z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave0176 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Doesn’t appear the 11 year hot summer will repeat this year. This is shaping up to be more of the last four years. Humid, high dews, drenching rains when they come and average highs around 85-90. And it’s not going to be very warm again this week, I’m seeing mostly 70s, with cool starts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 A number of cities reached the lower 90s this afternoon. 90° readings included: Baltimore: 93°; Harrisburg: 91°; Newark: 90°; and, Philadelphia: 90°. 90° Days for Select Cities (through June 20): Albany: 1 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days) Allentown: 5 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days) Baltimore: 9 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days) Boston: 8 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days) Bridgeport: 2 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days) Burlington: 4 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days) Harrisburg: 6 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days) Hartford: 7 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days) Islip: 2 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days) New York City-JFK: 3 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days) New York City-LGA: 6 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days) New York City-NYC: 4 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days) Newark: 11 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days) Philadelphia: 8 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days) Scranton: 5 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days) Washington, DC: 7 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days) New York City-Newark Average: 6 (2020: 22 days) ...Expected: 7 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) It will likely be somewhat cooler tomorrow with a greater risk of some showers and thundershowers as Claudette passes well south of the region. The end of the week and coming weekend could be unsettled. Out West, an extreme heatwave began to ease in the Southwest. High temperatures included: Blythe, CA: 119° Bullhead City, AZ: 117° Death Valley, CA: 124° ***June record 6th consecutive 124° day*** Las Vegas: 112° Needles, CA: 118° Palm Springs, CA: 118° Phoenix: 115° ***Record 6th consecutive 115° day*** Tucson: 109° In large part on account of Phoenix's concluding extreme heat event, there is an implied 69% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature above 95.0°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -16.38 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.474 today. On June 18 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.073 (RMM). The June 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.198 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7° (1.7° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 90 degree days for Newark NJ since 1933... year.....total...cons...max...total 100 days... 1933.....18.....….5.....101.....1 1934.....18...…...5.....100.....1 1935.....14...…...3...….96 1936.....22...…...5.....104.....2 1937.....22...…...5.....100.....1 1938.....18...…...3...….95 1939.....24...…...3......95 1940.....15...…...5......99 1941.....27...…...4......97 1942.....15...…...2......98 1943.....31...…...4.....102.....2 1944.....39...…...8.....102.....4 1945.....24...…...5...….99 1946.....11...…...3......95 1947.....22...…...4......99 1948.....26...…...6.....103.....2 1949.....36...…...8.....105.....8 1950.....18...…...4...….98 1951.....18...…...3...….96 1952.....31...…...6.....102.....1 1953.....32...….11.....105.....6 1954.....18...…...3.....103.....2 1955.....32...…...6.....101.....4 1956.....14...…...5...….99 1957.....28...…...5.....101.....1 1958.....21...…...3...….96 1959.....40...…...5.....100.....1 1960.....13...…...4...….94 1961.....34...…...4...….98 1962.....14...…...4...….98 1963.....20...…...6.....100.....1 1964.....26...…...4...….99 1965.....26...…...4...….97 1966.....33...…...5.....105.....5 1967...….7...…...3...….95 1968.....23...…...4...….98 1969.....15...…...3...….96 1970.....22...…...5...….94 1971.....22...…...5...….96 1972.....21...….12...….96 1973.....31...….11.....100.....1 1974.....18...…...4...….98 1975.....12...…...4...….98 1976.....14...…...3...….93 1977.....26...…...9.....102.....2 1978.....16...…...5...….98 1979.....20...…...5...….96 1980.....27...…...4.....101.....2 1981.....21...…...8...….98 1982.....12...…...4.....100.....1 1983.....40...…...7...….99 1984.....22...…...5...….97 1985.....11...…...3...….97 1986.....22...…...5.....100.....1 1987.....37...…...8...….98 1988.....43...….20.....101.....5 1989.....27...…...6...….99 1990.....26...…...4...….98 1991.....41...…...7.....102.....2 1992.....22...…...3...….98 1993.....49...….10.....105.....9 1994.....39...…...5.....102.....2 1995.....33...….12.....104.....1 1996...….9...…...3...….99 1997.....20...…...6.....101.....2 1998.....21...…...4...….98 1999.....33...…...8.....103.....3 2000.....16...…...4...….96 2001.....22...…...5.....105.....3 2002.....41...….10.....100.....2 2003.....20...…...5...….95 2004.....13...…...2...….97 2005.....37...…...5.....102.....3 2006.....31...….10.....101.....3 2007.....21...…...4...….97 2008.....22...…...7...….99 2009.....11...…...7...….95 2010.....54...….14.....103.....4 2011.....31...…...5.....108.....4 2012.....33...….11.....104.....3 2013.....25...…...7.....101.....2 2014.....15...…...3...….96 2015.....35...…...9...….98 2016.....40...…...8...….99 2017.....22...…...4...….99 2018.....36...…...6...….98 2019.....27...…...4...….99... 2020.....31.........6......96... 2021.....11.........5......97 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 There goes the neighborhood............ I mean the Holiday WE. Big change from last run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, CIK62 said: There goes the neighborhood............ I mean the Holiday WE. Big change from last run. We have seen the GFS do this plenty of times in the longer range so it could be and probably is fantasy. I am more concerned with precipitation and amounts over the next 7 days more than anything else. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 53 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: We have seen the GFS do this plenty of times in the longer range so it could be and probably is fantasy. I am more concerned with precipitation and amounts over the next 7 days more than anything else. I cant count how many times ive seen the GFS do a hook into the coast with an offshore low. Every. Year. They dont call it the happy hour gfs for no reason haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 75degs.(66/83), or about Normal. Month to date is 72.9[+2.4]. Should be about 73.5[+1.7] by the 29th. 70*(96%RH) here at 6am, overcast and some blue). 74* by Noon. 77* at 5pm. Reached 78* around 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 This June is an unusual one for front-loaded heat.The 97° back on June 6th at Newark will be the max for the month. The remainder of the month will feature a Great Lakes Trough squeezed between the WAR and the Western Ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 72° here this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be variably cloudy and still very warm. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 80s in most places. A few places could reach 90°. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 86° Newark: 92° Philadelphia: 90° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 81.4°; 15-Year: 81.3° Newark: 30-Year: 83.7°; 15-Year: 83.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 85.2° Tomorrow will likely see more clouds, along with showers and thundershowers. It will be cooler. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 78F 80% humidity. Mosquito fest. Absolutely disgusting out. I’m going to sound old but I never remember a regular baseline weather like this in this area. It just makes you not want to go outside in what is supposed to be an outdoor season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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