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2021 Drought Thread


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3 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Feast here. I'll end up with 4.34" for the month and FWA is at 4.67", while ORD is at 1.79".

FWA at 13.75" for the year vs. 6.95" at ORD. The difference is stark.

I just looked up the great circle route from KIWH to KORD is 138 miles. So is KORD - KIWX within 150 miles? It would have been more amazing if that difference was under 100 miles such as KSBN.

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3 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Feast here. I'll end up with 4.34" for the month and FWA is at 4.67", while ORD is at 1.79".

FWA at 13.75" for the year vs. 6.95" at ORD. The difference is stark.

Even closer IMBY to ORD. 3.96" for May. 12.50" for the year. But, IKK is drought proof. Rain capital of IL. :D

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With the sub 0.50" precip streak ending at ORD, might as well turn to another one. 

Today is 220 days since the last calendar day 1" precip.  This only ranks in 30th place right now (#1 is an amazing 416 days), but it is the longest such streak for Chicago since 1993-1994 and there is no end in the near future.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

With the sub 0.50" precip streak ending at ORD, might as well turn to another one. 

Today is 220 days since the last calendar day 1" precip.  This only ranks in 30th place right now (#1 is an amazing 416 days), but it is the longest such streak for Chicago since 1993-1994 and there is no end in the near future.

That's surprising since 1993 was the year of the epic upper Mississippi flooding. Of course, this year we are also seeing how stark the dividing line between the precip haves and have-nots over a short distance in this region.

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1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

That's surprising since 1993 was the year of the epic upper Mississippi flooding. Of course, this year we are also seeing how stark the dividing line between the precip haves and have-nots over a short distance in this region.

Yeah summer of 1993 was wet for Chicago, particularly June which had about 10" of rain.  The sub 1" streak began on 9/26/1993 and went through 6/22/1994 for a total of 270 days.

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I was curious about whether such a dry January-May in Chicago would increase the odds of seeing a 100 degree day this summer, so I ran some numbers.

As posted above, January-May 2021 had 6.95" at ORD.  Not counting this year, there have been 23 years when January-May produced less than 10".  About 26% of those years produced at least one 100+ degree day.  About 22% of years with >10" in January-May went on to produce at least one 100+ degree day.  So, there is not much of a signal there based on that.

Interestingly, the 2 driest January-May periods (1934 and 1989) both produced 100+.  2021 ranked 4th, so not much farther down the list.  

The takeaway for me is that there may be a higher chance than usual that Chicago reaches 100 sometime this year, but it's probably still less likely than not.

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29 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

gonna get a whole lot worse the way june is looking to play out

Unlike June 2012 it looks like we will get chances of precip every few days though not high in coverage or amounts

but not a great year to be starting a lawn at my house. 

 

inb4 you relentless troll me for suburban living.

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12 hours ago, madwx said:

Unlike June 2012 it looks like we will get chances of precip every few days though not high in coverage or amounts

but not a great year to be starting a lawn at my house. 

 

inb4 you relentless troll me for suburban living.

2012 was wetter in Michigan.  It was hot, but there were ridge-rider complexes.  This year is looking like the worst ever.

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23 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

you can live in the suburbs (some) without a lawn

Lawns are just a placeholder for something else, it shouldn't be the focal point of your property/house. 

Places that don't have enough water to sustain it without burdening the surrounding environment should just put in astro turf or gravel. 

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

As long as <0.43" falls through June 8, it would become the 2nd driest year-to-date for Chicago (only behind 1934).  Looks very achievable.

It is even more impressive to be doing this in the era of increased precip.  Chicago has had some extremely wet months and years in recent times.

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Upcoming regime looks a little hit or miss.  Some areas could do well while others not so much.  Better take advantage of this week because the pattern looks drier after that.

A good thing is the precipitable water will be very high and the models are showing some shower activity even during the night.  It's just the instability might be kinda limited wherever the sun doesn't come out as much.

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