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wdrag

Elevation accumulation wet snow I80 northward Noon Thursday~ 2AM Saturday

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553P/12: South of I80 and also all of LI: probably no snow except possibly a short period of wet snow, melting on contact Friday.  

For the interior suburbs, especially elevations nw to ne of NYC,  this could become a problem wet snow impacting power, and for those with heart conditions - safe removal of the water loaded accumulations.   Shovels and plows may be of value in the hilly areas Friday morning,. 

Banding is likely to occur Thursday night-Friday in the northwest sector of the upper low that will enhance precipitation rates in some areas.  EPS 850MB easterly inflow as of the 12z/12 cycle was twice that of the GEFS, Therefore, the ensemble snowfall yield from the GEFS is minimal - under 1" while the attached EPS is considerably more.  It's too early to be overly confident of 6+" of wet snow, in parts of the extreme nw part of the forum, but certainly possible. IF 6" were to occur at 33F, I'd be thinking of power outages by 9AM Friday. Snow water ratio's may be less than the 10 to 1 used by the ensembles. 

It should be noted that the WPC Monday outlook for 3+" of snow is only spotty 10% chance in the Catskills.  I think this is largely based on the GEFS.  Still marginal temps and a breakdown in the 850MB inflow to a weaker GEFS solution would nix the risk of heavier snow.

The bulk of any snow should accumulate during Thursday night, lingering into Friday with possibly a second batch of trailer heavier snowfall in the wraparound band Friday evening, especially CT/MA high terrain.  As the snowfall rates lessen during midday Friday and afternoon, it could change back to rain. 

It is an interesting situation and not unheard of. Even last May 9 we had accumulative snow in some of the suburbs, so I don't think of this as a new normal.  

In summary: Looks interesting for the hilly areas northwest to northeast of NYC. How much and is it worthy of a thread, we'll know in 5 days.  I'll be following the NAM/GFS positive snow depth change... that to me becomes the minimum to look for, once it is consistently established from cycle to cycle. And of course, Kuchera and NWS products.

Small chance gusty winds 40-45KT e LI Friday?. Meanwhile, LI/CT/se NYS, ne PA should pick up a general melted combined rain/snow of 1-2", iso 3"? 

Screen Shot 2021-04-12 at 5.07.45 PM.png

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9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

sn10_acc.us_ne.thumb.png.00652b7b6e7d9e44aed7b6df3a932c63.png:damage:

Looks like at least the overnight model runs are in fact converging on a first consensus though, effectively now looking like you need to go far beyond 84 to see snow

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14 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

12z NAM attempts to re-up the ante, but getting the feeling us far N&W folks at lower elevations might be too far west/get fringed:

C08AF7D1-1341-4205-AB11-3B1B8ACDD2E7.png

Everything gets together too late

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Just now, MJO812 said:

Everything gets together too late

That’s what I’ve been wondering all along. Those of us in this sub forum who aren’t elevated seemingly just miss everything. Elevated areas of SNE might be in position to get smacked here 

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9 minutes ago, sferic said:

Today and tonight's runs will definitely be more telling. Wobbling is part of it and we are 60 hours out

From purely examining what has emerged today I think we should still be fine to see 2-4/3-6 with up to 8 or even more at elevations. The Berkshires are emerging as the potential crush zone in this

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11 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

From purely examining what has emerged today I think we should still be fine to see 2-4/3-6 with up to 8 or even more at elevations. The Berkshires are emerging as the potential crush zone in this

wow even Long Island gets some snow out of this

 

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Midday GFS remains relatively consistent, definite consensus on where the biggest axis of snow is: for the rest of us to see anything, the devil remains in the details 

469BEA65-6381-4F10-9316-1AE3AA55B110.png

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32 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Midday GFS remains relatively consistent, definite consensus on where the biggest axis of snow is: for the rest of us to see anything, the devil remains in the details 

469BEA65-6381-4F10-9316-1AE3AA55B110.png

So clown maps a week out for the win?

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11 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

3 days

I'm not liking this trend of higher totals.

 

Knowing where you are you might be really close to some big totals if some of the 12z runs are to be taken at face value. It’s gonna come down to a nowcast for you I would say. 

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17 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Absolute whopper for NE

 

starting to really cut it close for those of us in the Catskills however 

A1CC1ADE-D282-4E6E-8832-7C9B6D775211.png

 

Only 8.4" for my area.   Looks realistic.  

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geez,,,,supposed to drive up to Buffalo on Friday morning and drive back Saturday and just looked at this,,,,okay time to pay more attention to the model runs. You guys keep the updates coming as some of us have a vested interest

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56 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

geez,,,,supposed to drive up to Buffalo on Friday morning and drive back Saturday and just looked at this,,,,okay time to pay more attention to the model runs. You guys keep the updates coming as some of us have a vested interest

go west  through PA and then north to Buffalo...should be just rain that way...

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2 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

I think some on Long Island will VERY MUCH like the 18z NAM

I’ll be waiting for that to verify with bated breath and boundless anticipation. :lol: 

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2 hours ago, Rjay said:

 

Only 8.4" for my area.   Looks realistic.  

I look forward to the photos. ;)

Then again, ISP picked up 8.5” during April 9-10, 1996.

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In all seriousness I could see there being snow in the air for most of us and some accumulation in hilly areas away from the coast but the real accums away from the Berkshires or well elevated spots over 500’ are a big stretch to me at this point. Like Don said though it’s not impossible for there to be more in an ideal setup. That is one deep closed low coming. 

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29 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

In all seriousness I could see there being snow in the air for most of us and some accumulation in hilly areas away from the coast but the real accums away from the Berkshires or well elevated spots over 500’ are a big stretch to me at this point. Like Don said though it’s not impossible for there to be more in an ideal setup. That is one deep closed low coming. 

I suspect the focus will be the Berkshires with much less away from there. The ECMWF seems reasonable for these late-season elevation-favored events.

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4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect the focus will be the Berkshires with much less away from there. The ECMWF seems reasonable for these late-season elevation-favored events.

the moment I saw that NAM run I fully committed to the idea that the Euro has the right idea with this whole thing, and that the Berkshires are set up to get pummeled on this one. Not like many of us will see the flakes fly anyway, even for those of us N&W of the city who could squeak in 1-3" if we get absolutely lucky. N&E of the City is where one needs to be here.

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