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2021 Atlantic Hurricane season


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Seems a little odd for this far into October with nothing to watch. The fluffy clouds against a crisp deep blue sky down here looks more like the high country in Colorado during July than a typical October in Florida. I am enjoying of course. It is gorgeous.

But kind of longing to follow something even if I have to even pick up my yard!

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9 hours ago, cptcatz said:

GEFS has been pretty consistent showing a wave entering the Caribbean the last week of October. Maybe this one will finally verify?

We can hope. I know that is inappropriate, but still it is always a long wait before the next season.

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10 hours ago, Amped said:

This would be the first year in a long time that nothing formed in October. Still a long way to go.

Very true, Amped!  Not since the 1993 season has there been no TS or H formations after September 30.  
 

1994 for last “October” without a NATL basin TC.  
 

I’d be very surprised if the season concludes without at least one additional TS.  In contrast, I’ll be very surprised if the U.S. mainland experiences another hurricane landfall, however.  

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In early October, there were indicators of an active Caribbean around mid-to-late October. I had expected several more hurricanes including one more major hurricane by closing of shop in November. Well that appears to all be unlikely at this point. Beyond a marginal convective disturbance southeast of the Lesser Antilles, the basin appears to have shut down. Can't rule out one more hurricane but the potential is just not there for the time being.

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On 10/17/2021 at 9:56 PM, ncforecaster89 said:

Very true, Amped!  Not since the 1993 season has there been no TS or H formations after September 30.  
 

1994 for last “October” without a NATL basin TC.  
 

I’d be very surprised if the season concludes without at least one additional TS.  In contrast, I’ll be very surprised if the U.S. mainland experiences another hurricane landfall, however.  

2006?

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On 10/18/2021 at 10:52 PM, Maxwell03 said:

2006?

You’re correct, as I totally missed that particular season and the 2015 season.  That’s what I get for relying on memory lol 

 Thus, its actually only been 6 years (feels like so much longer) since there’s been a season without an October formation. Thanks for catching my aforementioned error.  
 

Interestingly, they (2006, 2015) were both El Niño years, as well.

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On 10/17/2021 at 9:56 PM, ncforecaster89 said:

Very true, Amped!  Not since the 1993 season has there been no TS or H formations after September 30.  
 

1994 for last “October” without a NATL basin .

And those were winters with record breaking snowfalls in New England...hmmmm (snow weenie mode activated)

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10 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Pretty impressive statistic here. I had thought the entire tropics, not just the Atlantic Basin, but globally, seemed too quiet. But no Category 3+ hurricanes in such a long period of time for early-to-mid Autumn is rare.

Which coincides with the Blizzard of 1978...(snow weenie mode intensified)

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3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs is honking 

FB_IMG_1634868196998.jpg

 

 Indeed, 

12Z EPS/18Z GEFS/0Z GEFS about as busy as anytime recently late in their runs in the W Caribbean. Early Nov climo supports this to some extent with still a respectable 13 geneses over the 10 day period 11/1-10 vs about the same rate during the 11 day period 10/21-31 of 15..so this area may bear watching, folks, as that's one every 13 years on average with the last one being Ida of 2009:nov_1_10.thumb.png.de4747dfef518b4c6a803928de2bde1b.png

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